January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage Thread 2

[yoda]

The Winter Storm Warnings in KY are pretty high in their snow amounts FWIW 

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, yoda said:

The Winter Storm Warnings in KY are pretty high in their snow amounts FWIW 

Well they aren't dealing with the same complications we are though, are they?

[Swiscaster]

12 minutes ago, Nomz said:

If you told me a week ago we'd get 8 inches in DC, I'd be happy. So I'm happy.

So the 8” already fell at your house?

[BristowWx]

8 minutes ago, Nomz said:

... it is sickening that PA/NYC/SNE are robbing us though

you know with  this kind of cold in place...who knows what will really  come out  of it.  another 25 miles of confluence press and changes happen...its really the best part of this...not once it falls...my  opinion.  it will be a scene regardless

[bncho]

1/25-26 First Call Snowfall Forecast From the JV Team

Hopefully the map is pretty self-explanatory. That thick blue line is the dividing line between all snow and mixing. Tonight this forecast will be refined. This will likely be the most impactful winter storm in the DMV region since 2016, even though mixing with sleet and freezing rain will occur. Temperatures will be cold throughout the storm and will struggle to reach 25. Snowfall ratios at the beginning of the storm will likely be around 16:1 and will slowly decrease to around 9:1, before mixing, where freezing rain and sleet will make conditions all the more dangerous. Snowfall rates during the heaviest returns will be upwards of 1-2" per hour, occasionally reaching 3" in isolated areas (which are currently unknown as we are too far out for CAMs to realistically hone in on those areas) where h7 FGEN goes crazy (credit to @MillvilleWx). After the storm, temperatures will remain frigid, and it's unlikely that high temperatures reach above freezing until February. Your snow/sleet/ice will turn into glacier. Prepare now. Make sure to get all your essential needs, like food, water, and a source of heat if your power goes out due to the ice.

[North Balti Zen]

40 minutes ago, konksw said:

Yes but I think most were hoping for the largest snow since 2016. That falls short of 2019 and at least one of last years much less hyped storms. 

Seven inches would be Baltimore and north's best storm since 2016. Easily. We are in an epic big snow drought up here. 

[MillvilleWx]

30 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The EPS 25-75% doesn't look far off from what @MillvilleWx has been saying all along 

ETA: Keep in mind this is pure 10-1 so in the NW zones these numbers would be underdone a little 

Thanks! I’m trying over here lol 

That was a solid map a good representation of what I feel will happen in terms of the ranges and cutoffs. I also don’t think people here are understanding the ratios well start off with around here. Even DC will be like 13-15:1 in the first 3-4 hrs of the storm before things slowly tail off as the warm nose approaches. Further north around the M/D back to WV, 18-20:1 will be common early on and as @WxUSAF mentioned earlier, the localized banding structures will improve ratios locally for times and things can pile up fast. 
 

My current thinking for the North and West crew is 12-18” with local to 22” as a max. Subject to change and not my official forecast, but that’s my thought on this. I like your spot and areas west along the M/D a lot. Should be a great storm. 

[Paleocene]

I have no super intelligent commentary to offer on the differences between the EPS and GEFS, but i thought I would make this gif which shows the differences in SLP. Valid Sunday evening/Monday 00z. Easy way to visualize why the GFS 12z was more "friendly" to those of us along/east of 95. We want that low and transfer to the coast to be more south. I assume at this range its probably time to stop looking at ensembles too

[Scraff]

5 minutes ago, bncho said:

1/25-26 First Call Snowfall Forecast From the JV Team

Hopefully the map is pretty self-explanatory. That thick blue line is the dividing line between all snow and mixing. Tonight this forecast will be refined. This will likely be the most impactful winter storm in the DMV region since 2016, even though mixing with sleet and freezing rain will occur. Temperatures will be cold throughout the storm and will struggle to reach 25. Snowfall ratios at the beginning of the storm will likely be around 16:1 and will slowly decrease to around 9:1, before mixing, where freezing rain and sleet will make conditions all the more dangerous. Snowfall rates during the heaviest returns will be upwards of 1-2" per hour, occasionally reaching 3" in isolated areas (which are currently unknown as we are too far out for CAMs to realistically hone in on those areas) where h7 FGEN goes crazy (credit to @MillvilleWx. After the storm, temperatures will remain frigid, and it's unlikely that high temperatures reach above freezing until February. Your snow/sleet/ice will turn into glacier. Prepare now. Make sure to get all your essential needs, like food, water, and a source of heat if your power goes out due to the ice.

Bitchin Nachos!! Nice write up and map. I toast you a cold frosty Capri Sun!

[BigCountry]

LWX also pretty aggro. We'll see

Why is that map 2024?

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[TSSN+]

12 minutes ago, mappy said:

I actually don’t think it’s that bad. May not sleet as much once you north of the line compared to my backyard 

If I get 18” of snow and sleet I’ll go nuts. I’m expecting more like 10” and 1-2” sleet. 

[mitchnick]

Comparing 15z Srefs 78hr snowfall total to 9z Srefs 84hr snowfall total. 15Z IS BETTER!!!

[MillvilleWx]

5 minutes ago, bncho said:

1/25-26 First Call Snowfall Forecast From the JV Team

Hopefully the map is pretty self-explanatory. That thick blue line is the dividing line between all snow and mixing. Tonight this forecast will be refined. This will likely be the most impactful winter storm in the DMV region since 2016, even though mixing with sleet and freezing rain will occur. Temperatures will be cold throughout the storm and will struggle to reach 25. Snowfall ratios at the beginning of the storm will likely be around 16:1 and will slowly decrease to around 9:1, before mixing, where freezing rain and sleet will make conditions all the more dangerous. Snowfall rates during the heaviest returns will be upwards of 1-2" per hour, occasionally reaching 3" in isolated areas (which are currently unknown as we are too far out for CAMs to realistically hone in on those areas) where h7 FGEN goes crazy (credit to @MillvilleWx). After the storm, temperatures will remain frigid, and it's unlikely that high temperatures reach above freezing until February. Your snow/sleet/ice will turn into glacier. Prepare now. Make sure to get all your essential needs, like food, water, and a source of heat if your power goes out due to the ice.

First call map isn’t bad my friend!! I do think mixing will end up further north than what you have, but you have the right idea. Let me tell you, I am impressed at your acumen and intelligence to grasp some of this complex meteorology at your age. I was following along at your age once upon a time, learning and taking in things like a sponge. You are doing great and ahead of the game. You and @SnowenOutThere keep up the great work. It’s been a cool sight watching you two both grow up and learn on here. Now go eat some crayons!!! You’re making us all look bad 

[WEATHER53]

That High supports snow for longer  than is being  recognized I believe.

My idea has been and hasn’t changed that DC to Balt area is in for a 10-15” event

 

[BristowWx]

4 minutes ago, bncho said:

1/25-26 First Call Snowfall Forecast From the JV Team

Hopefully the map is pretty self-explanatory. That thick blue line is the dividing line between all snow and mixing. Tonight this forecast will be refined. This will likely be the most impactful winter storm in the DMV region since 2016, even though mixing with sleet and freezing rain will occur. Temperatures will be cold throughout the storm and will struggle to reach 25. Snowfall ratios at the beginning of the storm will likely be around 16:1 and will slowly decrease to around 9:1, before mixing, where freezing rain and sleet will make conditions all the more dangerous. Snowfall rates during the heaviest returns will be upwards of 1-2" per hour, occasionally reaching 3" in isolated areas (which are currently unknown as we are too far out for CAMs to realistically hone in on those areas) where h7 FGEN goes crazy (credit to @MillvilleWx). After the storm, temperatures will remain frigid, and it's unlikely that high temperatures reach above freezing until February. Your snow/sleet/ice will turn into glacier. Prepare now. Make sure to get all your essential needs, like food, water, and a source of heat if your power goes out due to the ice.

I guess its as good as anything we can guess on.  conservative in some cases and kinda broad brushed from WSW to ENE.  you think Roanoke and Salisbury will have similar outcomes?  I mean maybe taking into account the orographic lift vs. the coast taking over.  we shall see.   

[IronTy]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Comparing 15z Srefs 78hr snowfall total to 9z Srefs 84hr snowfall total. 15Z IS BETTER!!!

Reel it in baby!!

[AmericanWxFreak]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Comparing 15z Srefs 78hr snowfall total to 9z Srefs 84hr snowfall total. 15Z IS BETTER!!!

Early Happy Hour vibes - lets keep it rolling

[WEATHER53]

4 minutes ago, BigCountry said:

Why is that map 2024?

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Jan 24 not 2024 

[BristowWx]

11 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Why does sleet make into daily snowfall measurements, anyway? I mean it's literally not snow, lol

doesn't it start as snow fall through 700mb melt and refreeze?  it is kinda snow right?  or am I wrong.  

[JenkinsJinkies]

9 minutes ago, bncho said:

1/25-26 First Call Snowfall Forecast From the JV Team

Hopefully the map is pretty self-explanatory. That thick blue line is the dividing line between all snow and mixing. Tonight this forecast will be refined. This will likely be the most impactful winter storm in the DMV region since 2016, even though mixing with sleet and freezing rain will occur. Temperatures will be cold throughout the storm and will struggle to reach 25. Snowfall ratios at the beginning of the storm will likely be around 16:1 and will slowly decrease to around 9:1, before mixing, where freezing rain and sleet will make conditions all the more dangerous. Snowfall rates during the heaviest returns will be upwards of 1-2" per hour, occasionally reaching 3" in isolated areas (which are currently unknown as we are too far out for CAMs to realistically hone in on those areas) where h7 FGEN goes crazy (credit to @MillvilleWx). After the storm, temperatures will remain frigid, and it's unlikely that high temperatures reach above freezing until February. Your snow/sleet/ice will turn into glacier. Prepare now. Make sure to get all your essential needs, like food, water, and a source of heat if your power goes out due to the ice.

My ceiling still stands I see.

[BigCountry]

Jan 24 not 2024 

It says Feb 16 - Feb 17th 2024 on it. LOL.

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[MillvilleWx]

12 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Why does sleet make into daily snowfall measurements, anyway? I mean it's literally not snow, lol

Has to go somewhere, so it is counted in snow. Traditionally we have total SN&IP map accums which has been standard long before you and I were even thought of. It gets sorted in history with the hourly obs, so there is a differentiation when you break it down in the notes section of daily climo, but the total is both SN&IP. 

[Cobalt]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Comparing 15z Srefs 78hr snowfall total to 9z Srefs 84hr snowfall total. 15Z IS BETTER!!!

Seeing the SREF and NAM not super insanely amped (just regular amped) with the WAA is a bit encouraging. In similar borderline setups they've loved driving that initial precip well north of us at range, typically comically so. I guess that implies that the airmass and associated confluence are legit enough to shunt out those solutions from the usual suspects.

[IronTy]

1 minute ago, BigCountry said:

It says Feb 16 - Feb 17th 2024 on it. LOL.

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No it doesn't?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Comparing the 18z Hrr 38hr to 12z GFS 44hr.. the whole trough is further SW along the west coast by a decent difference, from the NW to the Baja energy.  Some things to work out here in the short term. 

[TSSN+]

Absolutely awful map cause I don’t have any other way to make a map till I locate my computer but my general idea for snow totals. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

1 minute ago, Cobalt said:

Seeing the SREF and NAM not super insanely amped (just regular amped) with the WAA is a bit encouraging. In similar borderline setups they've loved driving that initial precip well north of us at range, typically comically so. I guess that implies that the airmass and associated confluence are legit enough to shunt out those solutions from the usual suspects.

That's one thing I love not seeing on the models.  The absolute worst thing the models can show is the WAA precip going north to PA and we don't get anything.  In this situation it appears we will most likely get the WAA precip even if things shift either north or south. 

[jayyy]

Comparing the 18z Hrr 38hr to 12z GFS 44hr.. the whole trough is further SW along the west coast by a decent difference, from the NW to the Baja energy.  Some things to work out here in the short term. 

HRRR at 38 hours? Why

[nw baltimore wx]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

Absolutely awful map cause I don’t have any other way to make a map till I locate my computer but my general idea for snow totals. 

I'm in the 6 to 81 feet.  Nice!

[osfan24]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

Absolutely awful map cause I don’t have any other way to make a map till I locate my computer but my general idea for snow totals. 

Just wait until DT’s map comes out. Going to proactively take some Tylenol.