January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage Thread 2

[clskinsfan]

Wow. The ukie is insane as well. 

[baltosquid]

1 minute ago, Imgoinhungry said:

It has been discussed and sorry for missing it, but what kind of snow ratios are we looking at for this storm? Significantly more than 10:1, yes?


.

I've been mentally averaging 10:1 and Kuchera, though if the mix line becomes more of a threat (as in, CAD is lost sooner than pretty much all modeling shows right now) might revert to 10:1.

[high risk]

5 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

      Just some speculation that this cycle will NAM the crap out of us.

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, LP08 said:

It’s outrageous lol

[Solution Man]

We’ve got shenanigans again at 207 on the GFS Fyi

[clskinsfan]

Ukie does dryslot us. For once can we get the gfs to be correct please?

[caviman2201]

Ukie is 12" area wide before sleet flip

[ravensrule]

Just now, clskinsfan said:

Ukie does dryslot us. For once can we get the gfs to be correct please?

Looks just fine to me . 

[LVblizzard]

UKMET is kind of strange in that it really blasts that primary into WV/PA but it doesn’t torch the mid levels as fast as the Canadian which does the same thing at the surface.

[Maestrobjwa]

6 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Oh my goodness. Hmm!

[Solution Man]

Paging Dr. No

[adelphi_sky]

1 minute ago, Solution Man said:

Paging Dr. No

Although Dr. No has been masquerading around as Dr. Yes on this storm so far. 

[Maestrobjwa]

24 minutes ago, caviman2201 said:

CMC gets sleet all the way up to Boston this run... sheesh

Yeah even to my layman ears that doesn't sound right...lends credence to the possibility that it's overamped

[MillvilleWx]

UKMet continuing to show my idea of where the heaviest snow will lie. That corridor along the M/D is gonna get shelled. The WV Panhandle and Northern Neck of VA west of the Potomac is also looking excellent. This is going to be a fun storm when it materializes. 
 

Also, I put in an inquiry in the Banter thread if anyone is interested  

[brooklynwx99]

the fact that the CMC is a clear amped outlier and still delivers sig to borderline major snow is a testament to how favorable this setup is

[nj2va]

The first swath of watches are being upgraded to warnings back in OK/TX.  

[IUsedToHateCold]

2 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

Paging Dr. No

Euro has the extra data tonight, so it's to be trusted even more than usual. Although, it's really going to come down to how the confluence is handled I think. I think there is still a possibility we win real big with this one if we can thread the needle. Practical expectation is to expect sleet. 

[Solution Man]

4 minutes ago, adelphi_sky said:

Although Dr. No has been masquerading around as Dr. Yes on this storm so far. 

I like Dr. No, I pray he cures our ailments 

[Scraff]

I’m fading quick. 12:40ish for money Dr No panels? Might need a nap first. 

[jayyy]

I’m fading quick. 12:40ish for money Dr No panels? Might need a nap first. 

Take a nap champ. I am setting an alarm for 1230 myself

[Amped]

Cmc is my least favorite run so far. Ukmet and icon mix but at least they get a coastal transfer started early and track it well offshore. Cmc has the coastal too far west and not helping us.

[ravensrule]

Just now, jayyy said:

Take a nap champ. I am setting an alarm for 1230 myself

Are we in a nursing home?. Apple sauce and prunes at 12:30 am. 

[NorthArlington101]

 

Don’t think a single GEFS member is <6” at DCA. Going to bed with hope - good luck with the EURO!

[wxdude64]

7 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

 

Don’t think a single GEFS member is <6” at DCA. Going to bed with hope - good luck with the EURO!

#21 and #22 aka 'The @Bob Chill Express'!

[Solution Man]

[wxdude64]

3 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

LOL, love that you have Ji walking away from it. He's said once it is over, he is done.

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, wxdude64 said:

LOL, love that you have Ji walking away from it. He's said once it is over, he is done.

Just spit out my drink

[Scraff]

11 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

Are we in a nursing home?. Apple sauce and prunes at 12:30 am. 

I’m going to try and power thru. Serveral beers earlier are the downfall. Actually—I believe a few of them had prune and apple notes. Hmmm. Coincidence!? I think not! 

[SnowenOutThere]

https://x.com/MikeTFox5/status/2014175039457829228

Probably should be in banter but Fox model is my new friend. 

[mitchnick]

17 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

 

Don’t think a single GEFS member is <6” at DCA. Going to bed with hope - good luck with the EURO!

Mean