Possible Record Breaking Cold + Snow Sunday 1/25 - Tuesday 1/27

[Brian5671]

The wildcard is the coastal-if that forms and starts to move NE the colder mid levels may stay for areas especially north of the city

[TriPol]

How long until we get storm cancel from people?

[SACRUS]

 

RGEM next up

 

[brooklynwx99]

10 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

NAM looks like every SWFE storm from the past 5 years, thump to sleet.  Crazy how this evolution changed from a few days ago

lol how is this like every other SWFE in the last 5 years? temps are in the teens and you can get 2" per hour rates

[sussexcountyobs]

2 minutes ago, TriPol said:

How long until we get storm cancel from people?

Probably soon. Lol

[NJwx85]

NAM at 00z Monday near NYC.

[greenmtnwx]

And I didn’t think the NAM looked half bad lol. It’s got an inch of liquid up to just south of the city through 84, pretty much all of which is snow.

[SleetStormNJ]

Folks getting little too caught in model runs (NAM at end of cycle), verbatim the suggestion from models is this a real blitz of a SWFE - should not be ignored - thump of snow with heavy sleet is nothing to be ignored in our area, even if "just" 6-12 range.  

Interesting to see some of the model variations right now with the aspect of the mid-level lows and the coastal (this is gonna be the watch the next 2-3 model runs).

[jm1220]

Just now, greenmtnwx said:

And I didn’t think the NAM looked half bad lol. It’s got an inch of liquid up to just south of the city through 84, pretty much all of which is snow.

If we get 2”/hour rates for 5 hours we know what that can add up to. This seems like the type of SWFE that can produce- heavy snow shield coming into a strong high pressure that provides an overrunning surface. 

[weatherpruf]

And I didn’t think the NAM looked half bad lol. It’s got an inch of liquid up to just south of the city through 84, pretty much all of which is snow.

I think the concern is that sleet always shows up earlier than expected.


.

[kat5hurricane]

This is why it's hard to get too excited about SWFEs. The trend seems to be warming of the mid levels and bringing in more mixing as is usually the case in these situations. I bet that the GFS starts moving off the colder solutions soon. Looks like a solid storm regardless, just maybe not a major outside of the suburbs.

[SACRUS]

 

 

 

 

[Tar Heel Snow]

Yeah, warm noses always seem to rear their ugly heads earlier than modeled, at least they did back in NC. Not saying we’ve lost it or storm canceled, but it would be disappointing to lose a lot of this QPF to sleet. That said, hopefully we just stay where we are right now and don’t go in the wrong direction. Lucky to have what we have.

[SACRUS]

 

 

[tristateweatherFB]

May I ask.  Why are people Using the nam at 84 hrs ?   Same people that use the gfs.  Relax. Breathe.  The outcome is not set at all.   I predicted 1-2 feet days ago.  I am sticking with it.  Why?  Because if we thump at 15:1 ratio. With one inch qpf.  You see my math.   12 if we mix.  16 plus if mostly snow.    Have fun everyone 

[Jersey_Snowhole]

Icon should be significantly improved

looks like less phasing

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, NEG NAO said:

Paul Dorian of Arcfield Weather just mentioned that this new data won't be in the model runs till 12Z today.

 

That kind of defeats the purpose of the flights. That means the 12z model cycle would be ingesting 12z data and a small sample of data that was collected at 0z.

[SACRUS]

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

ICON 12Z

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[NEG NAO]

3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

That kind of defeats the purpose of the flights. That means the 12z model cycle would be ingesting 12z data and a small sample of data that was collected at 0z.

Maybe there is a cutoff time in the evening when the data has to  be delivered to whoever inputs it into the models- I have no idea how that works do you?

[SACRUS]

 

ICON wrap around on Monday morning

 

[SACRUS]

 

RGEM: snow arrives by 4 AM Sunday

 

[donsutherland1]

3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Maybe there is a cutoff time in the evening when the data has to  be delivered to whoever inputs it into the models- I have no idea how that works do you?

I don't know the internal logistics. 

[Wxbear25]

Yeah, heights noticeably lower ahead of the trough and the Canadian side of things is “pressing” more than digging behind the s/w thus far on the ICON

Problem is the ICON develops a stronger 850 low and that’s where the warm tongue is on that model

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

12 minutes ago, tristateweatherFB said:

May I ask.  Why are people Using the nam at 84 hrs ?   Same people that use the gfs.  Relax. Breathe.  The outcome is not set at all.   I predicted 1-2 feet days ago.  I am sticking with it.  Why?  Because if we thump at 15:1 ratio. With one inch qpf.  You see my math.   12 if we mix.  16 plus if mostly snow.    Have fun everyone 

Thank you for helping us with the very complex math involved with these ratios. 

[SACRUS]

RGEM

 

 

RGEM Total QPF through 84 H (Sunday 8PM)

 

 

RGEM Snow/Sleet through 84H

 

[Jt17]

RGEM


 

 
RGEM Total QPF through 84 H (Sunday 8PM)
 

 
RGEM Snow/Sleet through 84H
 

More gfs like


.

[Neblizzard]

35 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

Man Nam is torchy. 

So much for those media outlets calling for 10-15 inches .  6-10 looks like a good bet then sleet .., 

[SACRUS]

 

1/22 12z ICON Total QPF - storm

 

 

 

1/22 12z ICON Snow / Sleet

[mob1]

I am not hating the 12Z suite so far, 6-10 inches of snow followed by some sleet.