Possible Record Breaking Cold + Snow 1/25 - 1/26

[North and West]

The CMC would be the best storm for most in many many years. It has literally all the ingredients that we love: cold temperatures, all-snow, long duration, includes part of weekend, high QPF. Anyone saying it's not a big storm is crazy. It might not drop record snow anywhere/everywhere, but in a few spots that could rival the big ones even as depicted.

.

[WeatherGeek2025]

4 minutes ago, eduggs said:

The 12z ECMWF is a step back from 6z and 0z. The phase is not as clean. It's still a great storm as depicted, just not as favorable as the past 2 runs.

it's a great run, everything else is noise

[eduggs]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

We get over a foot.

That would be great if this were a 36 hour forecast. I'm just sensitive to any negative trends because this could disappear quickly if any piece doesn't align. The AIs and ensembles still aren't fully on board.

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

it's a great run, everything else is noise

I wouldn't say its noise. There's like 20 runs to go before start time so even subtle changes can add up over time

[Yanksfan]

27 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

 

aren't you guys the same person?

Nope. My former name was NutleyBlizzard. Sorry for any confusion.

[mriceyman]

He said he would if the gfs didn't improve the next run and it did massively lol.


.

Wishful thinking i guess lol


.

[eduggs]

The positive spin is the ECM and ECM-AI are clearly worse aloft at 12z than the previous 2 runs. The phase is "less clean"... and yet they both still produce a major snowstorm. That's encouraging. It suggests outcome resiliency and a buffer against negative trends.

The negative spin is that the ECM and ECM-AI were clearly worse aloft at 12z in a direction that, if it continued to trend, would lead to a GFS-like solution.

[North and West]

So far for 12z
HITS:
ICON
CMC
 
MISS:
GFS
AIGFS

Old model types never die, they’re just phased array.


.

[WeatherGeek2025]

2 minutes ago, mriceyman said:

Wishful thinking i guess lol


.

 

[Stormlover74]

Nice trend

[Joe4alb]

When GFS shows something great - "It's horrible, it won't happen" and it doesn't

When GFS shows something bad - "It's horrible, it won't happen" and it does

[North and West]

.

[WeatherGeek2025]

2 minutes ago, Joe4alb said:

When GFS shows something great - "It's horrible, it won't happen" and it doesn't

When GFS shows something bad - "It's horrible, it won't happen" and it does

that's not true, the GfS showed a storm last week and everyone discounted it ended up being half right but everyone said it wasn't worth looking at but gfs is a good model but i think its wrong here because you literally have the cmc uk and euro depicting a SECs

[NJwx85]

Don’t be shocked if the end result of this storm is about an 8 hour event that brings 4-8” of snow. Those saying the changes aloft on the Euro are just noise are being ignorant. A long duration event only happens if there’s a clean phase. Otherwise it’s overrunning and a scrape as the coastal gets kicked East.

[weatherpruf]

41 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

my dream come true

that's really a long time to be snowing......

[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Don’t be shocked if the end result of this storm is about an 8 hour event that brings 4-8” of snow. Those saying the changes aloft on the Euro are just noise are being ignorant. A long duration event only happens if there’s a clean phase. Otherwise it’s overrunning and a scrape as the coastal gets kicked East.

Its pretty safe to say this event up this way will not be as insanely long duration in all likelihood as it may be down in the SE because they may see a crazy long overrunning period.  I felt the 12Z Op Euro was gonna go full blown UKMET when I saw it through like 96 hours but it ultimately deviated after that.

[BoulderWX]

28 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

We get over a foot.

I think it's a great run and I agree ratios will be higher than 10:1 but as someone else mentioned earlier, there's more than just temps needed to ensure high ratios. I highly caution people not to ever assume more than 12:1. 

[SACRUS]

23 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

What was 0Z and 6z euro?  I thought it  barely showed snow past the mason dixon.

 

06z only goes to 144
00z (/20) was 1.0 (QPF) and now 0.7 - NYC

[the_other_guy]

9 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Don’t be shocked if the end result of this storm is about an 8 hour event that brings 4-8” of snow. Those saying the changes aloft on the Euro are just noise are being ignorant. A long duration event only happens if there’s a clean phase. Otherwise it’s overrunning and a scrape as the coastal gets kicked East.

Take that and run and onto Feb. Especially after last fee winters

[MJO812]

11 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Don’t be shocked if the end result of this storm is about an 8 hour event that brings 4-8” of snow. Those saying the changes aloft on the Euro are just noise are being ignorant. A long duration event only happens if there’s a clean phase. Otherwise it’s overrunning and a scrape as the coastal gets kicked East.

No model shows that right now. We still have alot of time so we shall see.

Yes the gfs does

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, the_other_guy said:

Take that and run and onto Feb. Especially after last fee winters

4-8 would take some close to seasonal averages....

[Jt17]

 
06z only goes to 144
00z (/20) was 1.0 (QPF) and now 0.7 - NYC

It's .8 this run


.

[Jt17]

I think it's a great run and I agree ratios will be higher than 10:1 but as someone else mentioned earlier, there's more than just temps needed to ensure high ratios. I highly caution people not to ever assume more than 12:1. 

It's REALLY cold.


.

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Jt17 said:

It's .8 this run


.

Yep plus the ratios.  Nice run despite a little sloppy. 

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

4-8 would take some close to seasonal averages....

And central park close to a foot ytd

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

2 hours ago, Jt17 said:

Every single cent of this storm would stick and pile up even in Manhattan. A rarity


.

I'm sure it would. The problem is would they bother to measure it?

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

3 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Yeah usually the high caliber model predictions don't happen. GFS was a borderine SECS for Sunday, but we busted low with 1-3" for most on here. 

I might be wrong, but you strike me as someone who would complain about winning the lottery because of all the taxes you would have to pay on the winnings. 

[eduggs]

12:1 is a good first guess for ratios IMO. Interior, mountainous regions get great ratios because they get great lift combined with cold. High ratio snow along the coastal plain is usually confined to snow squalls and heavy banding. Long-duration light-moderate snow might not coincide with enough lift in the snowgrowth zone to get higher ratios. Locking in 15:1 could lead to disappointment. 

[MANDA]

28 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

I wouldn't say its noise. There's like 20 runs to go before start time so even subtle changes can add up over time

Yep, about 20 model cycles to go.  I would start to look for some sort of consistency and trends starting with the 12Z runs tomorrow to get an idea of where we stand.  At that point (12Z tomorrow) we'll be within about 96 hours of the event.  The better models (CMC/EURO/EURO AI) should start to have a better handle on things.  Expect the GFS to flop around for who knows how long. I give no credence to that model no matter what it shows.  It is bottom of the barrel.

We might even want to start the baseline at 00Z tonight and see how things move from there.  

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, eduggs said:

12:1 is a good first guess for ratios IMO. Interior, mountainous regions get great ratios because they get great lift combined with cold. High ratio snow along the coastal plain is usually confined to snow squalls and heavy banding. Long-duration light-moderate snow might not coincide with enough lift in the snowgrowth zone to get higher ratios. Locking in 15:1 could lead to disappointment. 

FYI  a few of the more reliable METS are even mentioning 20:1 around the metro.