Possible Record Breaking Cold + Snow 1/23 - 1/31

[snowman19]

[Stormlover74]

Womp womp

[SnoSki14]

I'd recommend taking your eyes off the models for a few days. Things won't really come into focus until Thursday at minimum. 

And avoid the hype posts on social media... they're going to be relentless 

[TriPol]

I do not think this weekend will give several inches of snow. It will be extremely cold, yes. I think we will get some snow, another nickel and dime event. But then... into next week... that's our shot. 

Should I start a thread on the threat 12 days away? (ducks)

[donsutherland1]

At this stage, models don't handle tracks and synoptic details very skillfully. Thus, there remains latitude for either a suppressed solution or even a big hit into southern New England. The odds somewhat favor the former, but that doesn't mean that the New York City area can't see a moderate or significant snowfall while parts of the lower Mid-Atlantic have a major snowfall.

The 18z GFS came northward. It showed > 6" at Raleigh.  Since 1890, there were 44 storms that brought 6" or more snow to Raleigh. While 24 (55%) had no measurable snow in New York City, 12 (27%) had 4" or more and 8 (18%) had 6" or more. The most recent storm to bring 6" or more snow to both Raleigh and New York City was the Boxing Day Blizzard of December 2010. Interestingly, almost 20% of individual EPS members showed 6" or more now, which would be in line with the historic probabilities associated with significant snowfalls in Raleigh.

Of course, as noted in the first paragraph, nothing is cast in stone. Historically, if the teleconnection forecast is reasonably accurate, the heaviest snows could favor Washington-Baltimore-Richmond, but it's still possible to get significant snows into New York City. By Thursday, the guidance will be handling the synoptic details with skill. By that time, we should have a much better idea of what to expect.

For now, aside from the possibility of a snowstorm, the details cannot be pinned down with much accuracy. At least there's something on the proverbial radar. 

[NEG NAO]

24 minutes ago, TriPol said:

I do not think this weekend will give several inches of snow. It will be extremely cold, yes. I think we will get some snow, another nickel and dime event. But then... into next week... that's our shot. 

Should I start a thread on the threat 12 days away? (ducks)

why don't you just add a few more days to the thread title make it 1 /23 -1/31 - I was just reading the 2010 thread before Boxing Day storm and one thread had a longer date range, This way we can just talk generally about the arctic outbreak and cover the multiple storm threats.

[TriPol]

2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

why don't you just add a few more days to the thread title make it 1 /23 -1/31 - I was just reading the 2010 thread before Boxing Day storm and one thread had a longer date range, This way we can just talk generally about the arctic outbreak and cover the multiple storm threats.

Alright. I'll do that. Hope I'm not pissing off any mods.

[NEG NAO]

5 minutes ago, TriPol said:

Alright. I'll do that. Hope I'm not pissing off any mods.

I don't think its a big deal - its not like we are trying to rewrite the Constitution---lol

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

I don't think its a big deal - its not like we are trying to rewrite the Constitution---lol

Four score and seven threads ago, oh wait that's the Gettysburg address. 

[Rjay]

No

[SACRUS]

 

The 18Z Euro was a bit south of 12z but still had snow into the region (north of the GFS).  It only is out to 144 at 18z with likely a bit more at H150/H156. 

 

[Nibor]

[NJwx85]

It’s setups like this that I can’t stand people that root for cold weather. As always, the cold has to be well timed and not too entrenched or it’s suppression city. I’d rather it be in the 60’s and sunny all winter with the occasional well timed cold and storm then a fridged winter where the track stays South.

[MJO812]

What usually happens is that we typically get a huge storm once the cold air eases. Hopefully this weekends storm comes north.

[brooklynwx99]

we're getting closer now, and models are beginning to hone in on significant to potentially major snowfall across the mid-Atlantic. we have seen the AI models lead the way with the CMC, GFS, and ECMWF becoming a bit more aggressive. the AIFS and AIGFS have pared back a bit, but they were quite amped to start

regardless, the pattern is favorable for someone to see MECS impacts... we have a very favorable synoptic setup for the MA with strong confluence due to an anomalous 50/50 ULL, a southern stream vort, deep Arctic air in place, and even a potential interaction with the northern stream. right now, the RIC to DC corridor is most favored to see 6"+, but that is certainly possible even into NYC given high ratios and the propensity for these systems to inch north towards game time. it will be important to see if, and where this stream interaction occurs, as it could have drastic impacts on how far north precip eventually gets

good luck, and happy tracking! we will have more in the tank after this regardless

[WeatherGeek2025]

this will either move north or way south. It's definitely not going to just stay where it's at 6 days away. If you're in New York you're either getting clobbered or no snow at all! no middle 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

30 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

It’s setups like this that I can’t stand people that root for cold weather. As always, the cold has to be well timed and not too entrenched or it’s suppression city. I’d rather it be in the 60’s and sunny all winter with the occasional well timed cold and storm then a fridged winter where the track stays South.

Where do you live that this winter has been so horrible for you?

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

7 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

this will either move north or way south. It's definitely not going to just stay where it's at 6 days away. If you're in New York you're either getting clobbered or no snow at all! no middle 

So there's no chance in this setup NYC gets 4-6 inches of snow? It's either nothing or 1-2 feet. Gotcha, makes perfect sense to me. 

[WeatherGeek2025]

2 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

So there's no chance in this setup NYC gets 4-6 inches of snow? It's either nothing or 1-2 feet. Gotcha, makes perfect sense to me. 

i think it can get 4-6 but in my opinion it's either big or nothing. 

[TriPol]

13 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

this will either move north or way south. It's definitely not going to just stay where it's at 6 days away. If you're in New York you're either getting clobbered or no snow at all! no middle 

There's nothing showing that the high pressure gets much stronger or moves south. All show that the high pressure leaving saturday into sunday. 

[Franklin0529]

5 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

So there's no chance in this setup NYC gets 4-6 inches of snow? It's either nothing or 1-2 feet. Gotcha, makes perfect sense to me. 

Dude got some wild takes 

[psv88]

1 minute ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

i think it can get 4-6 but in my opinion it's either big or nothing. 

You of course know this makes no sense at all. Some location will get 4" of snow. Its not as if there will be places with 2 feet of snow and everyone else has zero. 

[psv88]

My first call because why not:

NYC - 4.6

ISP - 5.3

AC - 8.5

DC - 11

BOS - 2

[WeatherGeek2025]

at 0z run: big move north or i stfu for 48 hours!

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

1 minute ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

at 0z run: big move north or i stfu for 48 hours!

For the first time in my life I'm praying for a south trend. 

[Nibor]

15 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

Dude got some wild takes 

[NorthShoreWx]

13 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

at 0z run: big move north or i stfu for 48 hours!

Ah, the O. Henry conundrum.

Or you could self-limit voluntarily.

[WeatherGeek2025]

11 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

For the first time in my life I'm praying for a south trend. 

see u in 48 hours

[coastalplainsnowman]

1 hour ago, NEG NAO said:

I don't think its a big deal - its not like we are trying to rewrite the Constitution---lol

An amendment to a thread title requires

a) two thirds vote of the moderators

-and-

b) ratification by popular vote of the members representing three fourths of the counties comprising NYC metro

[Wannabehippie]

24 minutes ago, psv88 said:

My first call because why not:

NYC - 4.6

ISP - 5.3

AC - 8.5

DC - 11

BOS - 2

My first call
NYC - between 0" and 100"
ISP - between 0" and 100"
AC - Between 0" and 100"
DC - Between 0" and 100"
Bos - Between 0" and 100"

No way I can be wrong.