Extreme Cold, Snow & Sleet: SECS 1/25 - 1/26

[donsutherland1]

Even at the low-end NWS forecast, one sees a decent snowfall.

[SnoSki14]

2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Even at the low-end NWS forecast, one sees a decent snowfall.

That's pretty darn good. What's the high end? 

[qg_omega]

This has trended to every SWFE we have had the past 5 years

[donsutherland1]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

That's pretty darn good. What's the high end? 

Here it is:

[MJO812]

31 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

This is becoming less exciting lol

Then stop tracking 

[psv88]

Often with a SWFE the mid levels are warmer than expected and the lower levels are colder than expected. Very common out here. Raises the concern for a period of freezing rain for the coast which will be a problem. I could see 8-10" of snow, an inch of sleet, then an hour of freezing rain for many that really makes a mess. Then back to snow and ice box. 

Will be fun to watch, but awful to drive in

[VlinderF]

38 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said:

URGENT WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE – WINTER DISAPPOINTMENT DESK

ISSUED: Immediately, because hope is fragile

SUMMARY:
A significant winter storm is expected to impact the region. Forecast confidence remains high for heavy snow potential, followed by a dangerous transition to sleet, freezing rain, or the ultimate betrayal: plain rain.

⸻

HAZARDS:
• Initial excitement from model runs showing 18–30 inches
• Rapid emotional destabilization as warm nose appears
• Keyboard smashing, doom posting, and refresh-induced psychosis
• Statements such as “this storm is dead” at T-72 hours

⸻

SUICIDE WATCH (METEOROLOGICAL): IN EFFECT
A Snowlover Emotional Crisis Watch is in effect for the duration of the event.

Residents are advised:
• Do not do anything rash based on one model run
• Step away from social media during the sleet phase
• Remember: one band can still save the storm
• Refrain from declaring winter “over” before March

⸻

TIMING:
• Snow: Hope Phase
• Sleet/Freezing Rain: Anger Phase
• Rain: Acceptance (or complete meltdown)
• Post-storm: “Next system looks promising” Phase

⸻

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS:
• Touch grass (or snow, if available)
• Hydrate
• Do not fight family members over 850 mb temps
• Seek professional help if you start trusting the GFS blindly

⸻

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
Low on precipitation type
High on emotional damage
 

This post needs more love.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

31 minutes ago, Prue11 said:

Can we all just relax and enjoy what we get. We are all going to see a 6”+ event in the tri state area with the exception of maybe far southern coastal Jersey. A few model runs and more and more people are ready to throw in the towel. I’m grateful to even be tracking this storm where last year we sat here with noting to look at 

I don't really consider far southern coastal New Jersey part of the forum. That's more for the mid Atlantic or the least the Philadelphia forum. 

[Jt17]

Ukie is so sure there is a dry slot over nyc 3 runs in a row.


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[WeatherGeek2025]

6 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

This has trended to every SWFE we have had the past 5 years

no it hasn't, the low doesn't cut! this is an easy 6-10 inches for the city. when did the city get 6-10 inches off a SWFE?

[qg_omega]

2 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

no it hasn't, the low doesn't cut! this is an easy 6-10 inches for the city. when did the city get 6-10 inches off a SWFE?

8.3 inches January 28-29 in 2022

[coastalplainsnowman]

16 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Even at the low-end NWS forecast, one sees a decent snowfall.

SE Nassau lol.  I think the warm nose heard me talking bad about it.

[WestBabylonWeather]

16 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Here it is:

I believe the forecast is actually 11/12 at islip can you confirm that? 

[donsutherland1]

5 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

8.3 inches January 28-29 in 2022

That was a rapidly strengthening coastal low.

https://www.weather.gov/phi/eventreview20220129

https://bluehill.org/historic-blizzard-of-2022-impacted-new-england-with-strong-winds-and-record-snowfall/

 

 

[donsutherland1]

2 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

I believe the forecast is actually 11/12 at islip can you confirm that? 

Yes. Here’s the NWS forecast:

[RU848789]

The NWS finally dropped their snowfall forecasts (new and previous attached) to a somewhat more reasonable level, especially S of 78 where sleet will likely be at least at a moderate level. Likely tied to the NBM drop.

 

 

[donsutherland1]

7 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

The NWS finally dropped their snowfall forecasts (new and previous attached) to a somewhat more reasonable level, especially S of 78 where sleet will likely be at least at a moderate level. Likely tied to the NBM drop.

 

 

The latest image came out very small. Here's the bigger one:

[WestBabylonWeather]

Ok I’ll go with NWS. 12 it is 

 

[SACRUS]

 

 

1/23 18z Euro AI AIFS otal QPF storm

 

 

Total snow / sleet f (10:1)

[BoulderWX]

33 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Then stop tracking 

Wow, one can say it’s less exciting and still track. They’re not mutually exclusive. I know you’re overly sensitive MJO but maybe relax a bit. 

[Jt17]

 
 
1/23 18z Euro AI AIFS otal QPF storm
 

 
Total snow / sleet f (10:1)

Euro AI refuses to change


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[SACRUS]

1/23 18Z Euro Snowfall (10:1)

 

[Jt17]

1/23 18Z Euro Snowfall (10:1)
 

A little better result, tho I don't know how it evolved since it's an off hour...


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[psv88]

Euro looks great!

Big thump and then sleet

[MANDA]

Just got back from the store.  All set here.

[psv88]

5 minutes ago, Jt17 said:

A little better result, tho I don't know how it evolved since it's an off hour...


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Thats also not the full run. 

Full run is 10-12" for the Metro

[weatherpruf]

1 minute ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

Curious how the Long Branch 16” is arrived at given the surrounding numbers.

my guess is it takes longer, in their view, to flip. something you can't really predict exactly.

[David-LI]

1 minute ago, MANDA said:

Just got back from the store.  All set here.

 

[Roger Smith]

Starting to think the result will be a very sharp gradient of snowfall amounts, something like 4-6" JFK, 6-8" NYC, 8-10" LGA, 10-12" Bronx, 12-14" White Plains and 14-18" lower Hudson valley. Those gradients will then run in a generally w.s.w. direction across NJ into e PA. The axis of heaviest snow still where I thought earlier, Allentown to Catskills to n/c CT to e/c MA. These sharp gradients will also show up on Long Island from south to north shore with a range from 4 to 10 inches, and in s CT, RI and se MA. If the storm begins colder than modelled then possibly these phase changes will hit later in the precip cycle, I would still expect the change-overs in some areas but snowfall totals could then be 2 or 3 inches higher before the phase changes. 

Somebody was asking about lightning during this event, would not be surprised if there was widespread thundersnow mid-day Sunday, about when the coastal low is deepening fastest.

[Roger Smith]

6 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Just got back from the store.  All set here.

Good move, you are prepared for the next one as well.