Extreme Cold, Snow & Sleet: SECS 1/25 - 1/26

[bluewave]

2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I'll take a few hours of very heavy snow to mixing at the end if these amounts play out. 

06z GEFS showed more confluence vs 0z so I do think the super amped Euro runs could be overdone. 

What usually happens with these is more than 90% of the precipitation falls as snow before we go to drizzle or dry slot.

[Tatamy]

12 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Yep. Over a foot. Still a great run.

Huge run on the 06z EPS mean as well.

[WeatherGeek2025]

2 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

Huge run on the 06z EPS mean as well.

euro has over 1.2 liquid which stays all snow! that would be 16-20 inches if you add 14:1

[Jersey_Snowhole]

[SnoSki14]

4 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

euro has over 1.2 liquid which stays all snow! that would be 16-20 inches if you add 14:1

Even if we mix at the end we would get dumped on first. 

There's just way too much cold air in place and it's too expansive to do anything else. 

[donsutherland1]

It seems that the classic meteorological movie where Arctic high pressure and strong confluence were initially expected to crush a snowstorm to the South only to see the storm come northward due to better phasing and reduced confluence is poised to play again.

Much of the guidance has now moved into closer agreement over a significant snowfall in the New York City area Sunday into Monday. Some of the guidance even introduces sleet in a 2026 remake of the PD2 snowstorm of February 2003 where a storm arrived during bitter cold, and then sleet fell for a time a day later.

The NBM QPF forecasts for New York City reveal the movie's snowy plot.

1/20 0z: 0.25"
1/20 12z: 0.48"
1/21 0z: 0.62"
1/21 11z: 0.97"

While we enjoy the popcorn in eager anticipation of the 12z cycle and even greater anticipation of the region's biggest snowstorm in several years, discarded definitive claims from social media about what the storm won't do or can't do lie on the floor waiting to be swept away by the unfolding events.

[Jersey_Snowhole]

EPS 

[EasternLI]

We take. 

[FPizz]

-4.5°. Probably a top 5 cold morning that I can remember at least

[WestBabylonWeather]

Yesterday it was being said being too cold would hurt us. Now there is a warm nose. 
 

this game is too much on my heart

[Jersey_Snowhole]

WB 6z eps a almost all hits 

[NJwx85]

The primary hanging on too long can sometimes be problematic. If I recall that was the issue with March 2001.

[BoulderWX]

3 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Yesterday it was being said being too cold would hurt us. Now there is a warm nose. 
 

this game is too much on my heart

Hahah that’s what I was saying yesterday. Everyone was trying to calculate ratios and pin point certain things that just can’t be done at this time. 
 

Loved last nights runs, we still have some wiggle room in all directions to achieve a big storm - here’s hoping. 

[Jersey_Snowhole]

4 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

Hahah that’s what I was saying yesterday. Everyone was trying to calculate ratios and pin point certain things that just can’t be done at this time. 
 

Loved last nights runs, we still have some wiggle room in all directions to achieve a big storm - here’s hoping. 

Like blue wave said 90% of the time with these big storms you’re going to tend to mix. Let’s hope it comes at the end and when we dry slot. 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, Jersey_Snowhole said:

Like blue wave said 90% of the time with these big storms you’re going to tend to mix. Let’s hope it comes at the end and when we dry slot. 

Looks like it does after a foot of snow.  Still time for shifts.

[Tatamy]

16 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Yesterday it was being said being too cold would hurt us. Now there is a warm nose. 
 

this game is too much on my heart

The NAM can probably barely contain its excitement over being able to work that warm nose in another day or so.

[EastonSN+]

Primary does not go as far north on the 6z EURO. Less mixing. 

Interesting look on the individual eps panels. Definitely 2 camps.

[BoulderWX]

30 minutes ago, Jersey_Snowhole said:

Like blue wave said 90% of the time with these big storms you’re going to tend to mix. Let’s hope it comes at the end and when we dry slot. 

Oh I agree. I’m totally fine with a little Mix. Give me the increased QPF and I’ll gamble with the mix line 

[mriceyman]

i doubt it, maybe mix at the tail end but you're going to get a foot at least

Crystal ball seems to be working


.

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, TJW014 said:

Watch this wind up trending to a rain storm for me. Would be just my luck too. 

I doubt this will be an all rain storm for your area. Too much cold air in front.

[EastonSN+]

6 minutes ago, TJW014 said:

Watch this wind up trending to a rain storm for me. Would be just my luck too. 

The 6z euro was further south so the north trend on this model stopped for now. 

[sussexcountyobs]

From Mt. Holly:

KEY MESSAGE 3...Confidence continues to increase the area will be affected by an impactful winter storm beginning Saturday night and potentially lasting all the way into Monday. Portions of the area are likely to see moderate to heavy snowfall but there remains uncertainty on where the heaviest amounts will fall. Low pressure will begin organizing itself near the Texas Gulf coast Saturday. This will occur as several pieces of upper level energy dive southward into the base of the persistent long wave trough dominating over the CONUS. Saturday night into Sunday these pieces of upper level energy will to at least some degree "phase" with one another helping to drive deepening surface low pressure through the southeastern states then north and east towards roughly around the Virginia coast by late Sunday. Forecast guidance has continued to trend northward with the placement and the track of the low due to better phasing of upper level energy as just noted. However there continues to be some uncertainty regarding more specific details and this will ultimately affect the storms track, speed, and strength. This will impact where the heaviest precip falls along with precip types. Nevertheless, confidence has grown that much of the area has a good chance of seeing moderate to even heavy snowfall totals with this system. The NBM probabilities of 6+ inches with this storm now range from around 60 percent over the southern Poconos to the 80 to 90 percent range near and south of the urban corridor. Guidance is also in good general agreement that total QPF amounts with the system have the potential to be 1+ inches in many areas. The main challenge is again, the track of the low which determines who gets the heaviest precip and if we actually get into any mixing limiting snow amounts. The GFS has trended north putting much of the area in the "sweet spot" for very heavy snow amounts. However the GEM and ECMWF have trended north as well and now track the low close enough to Delmarva that mixing may occur at the height of the storm late Sunday. Regardless, expect snow to most likely start breaking out over the area Saturday night into Sunday morning. All areas look to certainly be cold enough initially to see all snow. In fact lows Saturday night look to once again be down into the single numbers north with teens to around 20 farther south. Heading into the day Sunday, expect snow will be continuing across the area and may fall heavy at times along with NE winds starting to increase, especially along the coast. Late day Sunday into Sunday night is when southern portions of the CWA (mainly Delmarva into adjacent portion of south Jersey but potentially as far north as Philly) could see some mixing if the low takes a close enough track to the area. However given the strong artic high and antecedent cold airmass in place, plain rain looks less likely than a mix with or change to sleet and freezing rain if any mixing does in fact occur. If this mixing does occur for a time, a change back to all snow is likely later Sunday night into early Monday before precip winds down across the area into Monday. As already mentioned, a lot of uncertainty remains regarding total snow amounts. 24 hours ago this looked like more of a question of a near "miss" to the south vs. a big snowstorm. Now it`s looking like a more or less a lock that this storm will affect the area with significant precip with the question then shifting to whether the track actually gets too far north to bring a mix or changeover into the area. If this occurs, the very heaviest snow amounts may end up near or even north of the urban corridor vs coastal and southern portions of the area. We say this while stressing the fact that the very heaviest snow amounts within these type of large systems are still often only 100 miles wide or less. S/E of the snowfall max you get ice or rain vs. N/W precip amounts are lighter. For this reason, it will still take at least a couple more forecast cycles to have a clearer idea on the details of where any "blockbuster" snow amounts could occur within our County Warning area.

[Lucy Pull]

50 minutes ago, Jersey_Snowhole said:

WB 6z eps a almost all hits 

FYI if anyone didn’t notice.

It looks like the top subset of members is for GEFS. Bottom subset is EPS members.

[nightknights]

If it were Friday id be more excited.  Bullseye never statmys in same spot.  Its ever evolving 

[golfer67]

Supposed to fly out of White Plains Monday at 7:30 AM. Don't see that happening...trying to decide if I should move it to Monday evening or Tuesday AM. Any thoughts if Monday evening might still be at risk or is this thing scooting out by early Monday AM?

[SACRUS]

 

1/21 6Z Total QPF (Storm)

GFS:

 

[SACRUS]

 

06Z GFS AI AIGFS Total QPF:

 

 

[NJwx85]

5 minutes ago, golfer67 said:

Supposed to fly out of White Plains Monday at 7:30 AM. Don't see that happening...trying to decide if I should move it to Monday evening or Tuesday AM. Any thoughts if Monday evening might still be at risk or is this thing scooting out by early Monday AM?

My parents are coming into HPN from SJU Sunday night and that’s not happening either. Best part is they are on a cruise and have no idea it’s coming.

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, NJwx85 said:

The primary hanging on too long can sometimes be problematic. If I recall that was the issue with March 2001.

This will be way different.  This storm will run into very cold air.

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, golfer67 said:

Supposed to fly out of White Plains Monday at 7:30 AM. Don't see that happening...trying to decide if I should move it to Monday evening or Tuesday AM. Any thoughts if Monday evening might still be at risk or is this thing scooting out by early Monday AM?

Monday  night should be better