Major snowstorm 1/15-16

[Damage In Tolland]

Just totally opposite of it ensembles . Toss 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s 0.0

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Just totally opposite of it ensembles . Toss 

We’ll see what the EPS looks like this run. There was a ton of spread on the 12z eps so this type of solution is within the envelope. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

10 minutes ago, George001 said:

I know he’s negative a lot, but I don’t think Tblizz is being unreasonable here. I also want to see more support from other guidance before buying in, and the wave spacing is a real limitation. 

There are a lot of possible issues. Latching on to the one model with a storm is always a risky play IMO.

Its day 4, you’d like to see some legit solutions 

[SouthCoastMA]

3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

There are a lot of possible issues. Latching on to the one model with a storm is always a risky play IMO.

Its day 4, you’d like to see some legit solutions 

If obviously the right call if you were making a bet. Still some time for other models to come around at least. Low/Non Zero chance the GEFS are sniffing out something..we'll see about the EPS

[CoastalWx]

EPS has a chunk of members off PWM

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

EPS has a chunk of members off PWM

Is the mean better?

[jbenedet]

EC AIFS and GFS again are worlds apart…

[jbenedet]

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

EPS has a chunk of members off PWM

Like this? 

[Go Kart Mozart]

16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

EPS has a chunk of members off PWM

So, ICON was right once again?

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

9 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Like this? 

Oof

[Damage In Tolland]

23 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

EPS has a chunk of members off PWM

Awt

[CoastalWx]

23 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Is the mean better?

Too far north for us. Congrats mane snow mobiles 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Awt

That’s not good. Beer?

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That’s not good. Beer?

the other ones are what matters . This has always been a light to max moderate event . Whiten things Back up 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Ridin’ dirty with the gefs:

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

I don’t know. I don’t really so much on the eps that leads me to the conclusion that this is coming. Looks like shit, truthfully 

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Too far north for us. Congrats mane snow mobiles 

Then the  next one will be too far west...shoot me.

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Then the  next one will be too far west...shoot me.

I mean if the EPS and GEFS compromised it would be nice for us. As usual, lack of good agreement 4+ days out once again. 

[RDRY]

I'm not a weather history savant like many on here, but I can't recall a greater 500 vs. surface discrepancy for a coastal.

[ORH_wxman]

With this storm, if you don’t like a model solution, just wait 6 hours. 

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, RDRY said:

I'm not a weather history savant like many on here, but I can't recall a greater 500 vs. surface discrepancy for a coastal.

Not the exact same setup but seeing some of these paltry depictions despite a deep closed ULL to our south reminds me a bit of the model fumbling prior to 2/15/15. The 18z euro is not included in that because that was so much further north than any other recent runs.  

[UnitedWx]

10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Not the exact same setup but seeing some of these paltry depictions despite a deep closed ULL to our south reminds me a bit of the model fumbling prior to 2/15/15. The 18z euro is not included in that because that was so much further north than any other recent runs.  

You can feel the models searching for something, but just can't quite see it... or figure what to key in on, seemingly more than usual. Definitely an interesting system to track 

[Go Kart Mozart]

To channel the late Johnny Cochran:

"If the AIs don't commit, the storm ain't legit".

[40/70 Benchmark]

29 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Not the exact same setup but seeing some of these paltry depictions despite a deep closed ULL to our south reminds me a bit of the model fumbling prior to 2/15/15. The 18z euro is not included in that because that was so much further north than any other recent runs.  

Not a bad analog, but that harkens back to what I was saying about the western ridge....notice it looks more like the 18z GFS suite than it does some of those other runs that are positively tilted sw to ne.

This is what I hate...see the difference?

Notice 18z GEFS look more like 2/15/15 than this last image.

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Not a bad analog, but that harkens back to what I was saying about the western ridge....notice it looks more like the 18z GFS suite than it does some of those other runs that are positively tilted sw to ne.

This is what I hate...see the difference?

Notice 18z GEFS look more like 2/15/15 than this last image.

@Ginx snewxGive me a ridge like the first and 3rd image, then H5 matters....second image is when it's more futile.

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

@Ginx snewxGive me a ridge like the first and 3rd image, then H5 matters....second image is when it's more futile.

What matters is when it just quickly opens up and dissipates

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

What matters is when it just quickly opens up and dissipates

I don't agree. Keep the ridge tilted positively like that and the surface will underperform.  This is why the dynamics and BZ are escaping east on those solutions. 

[Damage In Tolland]

42 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

With this storm, if you don’t like a model solution, just wait 6 hours. 

Some here locked in the 18z Euro 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Some here locked in the 18z Euro 

I wonder how it will work out for them…