January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Here's my thinking.  That mother High is real.  The exact placement is not.  Until models get that right, we gonna windshield wiper that slug of moisture.

Someone call the mother ship and tell it to back off just a bit. 

[SnowenOutThere]

Both the Euro and GFS showing potential in the longer range is exciting. Nice to have a good chance from a distance that we don't need to reel in. 

[stormy]

Too much chaos!    The models are on a roller coaster from run to run....................  

My 30% on the EURO from yesterday drops to 10%.

[TSSN+]

6 minutes ago, stormy said:

Too much chaos!    The models are on a roller coaster from run to run....................  

My 30% on the EURO from yesterday drops to 10%.

Put down the pipe man 

[WxUSAF]

Euro’s had a consistent long range cold bias. I’d expect cold, but not tha extreme.

[JenkinsJinkies]

13 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Think the euro might be over doing the cold air. Near to below 0? -20 in pa. Hopefully just over doing the cold push by a bit. 

I mean we did hit single digit lows for a day or two in 2013-2014.

[T. August]

2 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

I mean we did hit single digit lows for a day or two in 2013-2014.

Happened last year too - mby had 3 single digit low days in a row.

[Ji]

13 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Someone call the mother ship and tell it to back off just a bit. 

with that kind of cold....we wouldnt need a ton of qpf....make it 18 degrees...give us .4 qpf....thats 8 inches of powder

[Amped]

So out of the 10 opportunities for snow in the next 16 days how many will actually pan out?

[Stradivarious]

many a time in the 1980’s i have  seen the Temperature go down to -20 to -30 in rural Pennsylvania in Luzerne county. Makes a trip to the outhouse something to remember..

[pazzo83]

40 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Think the euro might be over doing the cold air. Near to below 0? -20 in pa. Hopefully just over doing the cold push by a bit. 

i wonder why Lake Michigan is so much warmer than the other lakes.

[TSSN+]

4 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

i wonder why Lake Michigan is so much warmer than the other lakes.

Probably less frozen? 
 

confirmed..

“Lake Michigan is the last of the Great Lakes to freeze due to its immense depth, size, and stored heat, resisting full ice cover even in severe winters”

[mattie g]

2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Speaking of brewing....what are we consuming for HH later today? 

Currently doing January keto to get my brain back in the right mode of not eating/drinking everything in front of my face, so bourbon and vodka/flavored seltzer for me.

Yay snow!

[pazzo83]

2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Probably less frozen? 
 

confirmed..

“Lake Michigan is the last of the Great Lakes to freeze due to its immense depth, size, and stored heat, resisting full ice cover even in severe winters”

makes sense - thanks!

[TSSN+]

Just now, pazzo83 said:

makes sense - thanks!

You’re welcome 

[stormy]

42 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Think the euro might be over doing the cold air. Near to below 0? -20 in pa. Hopefully just over doing the cold push by a bit. 

That's irrational modeling by the EURO.    With excellent radiational cooling, maybe.

With a 13 mph wind and 76% cloudiness over Augusta,  0 ain't gonna happen.

[mattie g]

17 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Probably less frozen? 
 

confirmed..

“Lake Michigan is the last of the Great Lakes to freeze due to its immense depth, size, and stored heat, resisting full ice cover even in severe winters”

Thanks, Gemini...

[CAPE]

Cold powder.

[Terpeast]

33 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Cold powder.

 

Looks like EPS trended the boundary more south. Good for now, but don't want too much suppression (still unlikely)

[Alfoman]

CPC biting on the trends here

[Ji]

 
Looks like EPS trended the boundary more south. Good for now, but don't want too much suppression (still unlikely)

Why is it unlikely?

[Scraff]

This better be the happy hour GooFus run of our weenie dreams. I’m already gooning over it and it’s still 8 minutes out.  

[dailylurker]

11 minutes ago, Scraff said:

This better be the happy hour GooFus run of our weenie dreams. I’m already gooning over it and it’s still 8 minutes out.  

Someone mentioned living in the "Snowanus" of MD a few days ago. That's definitely one I'm stealing lol

[stormtracker]

Well...here we are

[Maestrobjwa]

3 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

Someone mentioned living in the "Snowanus" of MD a few days ago. That's definitely one I'm stealing lol

First person I heard use that was PSU when he was talking to @EastCoast NPZ several years ago when he was living somewhere near Dundalk I believe? lol

[Scraff]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Well...here we are

Bring it home! I’ll just sip my beer and enjoy the PBP

[yoda]

4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Well...here we are

Are we going to eventually have a part 2?  This thread will be at 200 pages by end of the weekend

[psuhoffman]

7 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

First person I heard use that was PSU when he was talking to @EastCoast NPZ several years ago when he was living somewhere near Dundalk I believe? lol

Dundalk is the snow anus of Maryland.  NPZ lives in the snow anus of VA in a shadow effect zone in the Shenandoah valley. 

[ravensrule]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Dundalk is the snow anus of Maryland.  NPZ lives in the snow anus of VA in a shadow effect zone in the Shenandoah valley. 

Dundalk is just the anus of MD period. 

[Solution Man]

Who’s driving this damn bus?