January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Here's my thinking.  That mother High is real.  The exact placement is not.  Until models get that right, we gonna windshield wiper that slug of moisture.

Someone call the mother ship and tell it to back off just a bit. 

[SnowenOutThere]

Both the Euro and GFS showing potential in the longer range is exciting. Nice to have a good chance from a distance that we don't need to reel in. 

[stormy]

Too much chaos!    The models are on a roller coaster from run to run....................  

My 30% on the EURO from yesterday drops to 10%.

[TSSN+]

6 minutes ago, stormy said:

Too much chaos!    The models are on a roller coaster from run to run....................  

My 30% on the EURO from yesterday drops to 10%.

Put down the pipe man 

[WxUSAF]

Euro’s had a consistent long range cold bias. I’d expect cold, but not tha extreme.

[JenkinsJinkies]

13 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Think the euro might be over doing the cold air. Near to below 0? -20 in pa. Hopefully just over doing the cold push by a bit. 

I mean we did hit single digit lows for a day or two in 2013-2014.

[T. August]

2 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

I mean we did hit single digit lows for a day or two in 2013-2014.

Happened last year too - mby had 3 single digit low days in a row.

[Ji]

13 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Someone call the mother ship and tell it to back off just a bit. 

with that kind of cold....we wouldnt need a ton of qpf....make it 18 degrees...give us .4 qpf....thats 8 inches of powder

[Amped]

So out of the 10 opportunities for snow in the next 16 days how many will actually pan out?

[Stradivarious]

many a time in the 1980’s i have  seen the Temperature go down to -20 to -30 in rural Pennsylvania in Luzerne county. Makes a trip to the outhouse something to remember..

[pazzo83]

40 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Think the euro might be over doing the cold air. Near to below 0? -20 in pa. Hopefully just over doing the cold push by a bit. 

i wonder why Lake Michigan is so much warmer than the other lakes.

[TSSN+]

4 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

i wonder why Lake Michigan is so much warmer than the other lakes.

Probably less frozen? 
 

confirmed..

“Lake Michigan is the last of the Great Lakes to freeze due to its immense depth, size, and stored heat, resisting full ice cover even in severe winters”

[mattie g]

2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Speaking of brewing....what are we consuming for HH later today? 

Currently doing January keto to get my brain back in the right mode of not eating/drinking everything in front of my face, so bourbon and vodka/flavored seltzer for me.

Yay snow!

[pazzo83]

2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Probably less frozen? 
 

confirmed..

“Lake Michigan is the last of the Great Lakes to freeze due to its immense depth, size, and stored heat, resisting full ice cover even in severe winters”

makes sense - thanks!

[TSSN+]

Just now, pazzo83 said:

makes sense - thanks!

You’re welcome 

[stormy]

42 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Think the euro might be over doing the cold air. Near to below 0? -20 in pa. Hopefully just over doing the cold push by a bit. 

That's irrational modeling by the EURO.    With excellent radiational cooling, maybe.

With a 13 mph wind and 76% cloudiness over Augusta,  0 ain't gonna happen.

[mattie g]

17 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Probably less frozen? 
 

confirmed..

“Lake Michigan is the last of the Great Lakes to freeze due to its immense depth, size, and stored heat, resisting full ice cover even in severe winters”

Thanks, Gemini...

[CAPE]

Cold powder.

[Terpeast]

33 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Cold powder.

 

Looks like EPS trended the boundary more south. Good for now, but don't want too much suppression (still unlikely)

[Alfoman]

CPC biting on the trends here

[Ji]

 
Looks like EPS trended the boundary more south. Good for now, but don't want too much suppression (still unlikely)

Why is it unlikely?