January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[WxUSAF]

1 minute ago, winter_warlock said:

What's new

Can you work on fewer 1-5 word quip commentary posts in this thread? TIA!

[DDweatherman]

Just now, ravensrule said:

I'll give you my 3" any day, all you have to do is ask me to share. I still love you regardless. 

It might be all we have left to give (or receive) in a few weeks. Ji might beat me to it though 

[ravensrule]

1 minute ago, DDweatherman said:

It might be all we have left to give (or receive) in a few weeks. Ji might beat me to it though 

I think by February 15 we get a forum wide 6" storm, if not you can weenie me all day long. 

[Eskimo Joe]

 

 

[mitchnick]

Euro with a grand finali 

[JenkinsJinkies]

Just now, mitchnick said:

Euro with a grandad finali 

Will the next run be a Fleenstones finali?

[North Balti Zen]

I am in Albuquerque today and Santa Fe tomorrow and Friday. Someone tell me which direction I need to step outside and strongly exhale to change things upstream to fix the snow issues for us. 

[Solution Man]

Vodka cold at the end of euro run

[Ralph Wiggum]

7 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Euro with a grand finali 

Just saw. Maybe not a discrete threat for the 27-29 period yet, but not surprised to see some operational surface teases based on the ens means h5 panels. 

[Eskimo Joe]

Euro continues to open the freezer in the long range. Man just give us some snow covered ground and it'll be a cold shot to remember.

[bncho]

CMCE agressive

 

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said:

differences at H5 for our timeframe. Not horrifically far apart but obviously not the same. I'll let someone smarter take it from here

Very subtle differences in the wave interactions(vorticity phasing) but that's all it takes in a situation like this. Bottom line is the shortwave turns neutral/negative later(too late) than the GFS. More runs to come and we will see somewhat different interactions and thus outcomes. Fun stuff eh?

 

eta- you can see it clearly in the panels you posted. Also happens with another piece energy a bit earlier. I have said this ad nauseum- all our hopes and dreams depend on random wave interactions and timing.

[CAPE]

12z EPS similar to the op- a little worse than the 6z run. Nothing earth shattering.

[Terpeast]

Good news, PNA is finally trending up in the 11-15 day!

6-10 will be moderately negative but not extremely so.

[WEATHER53]

It’s not that winter is over. It’s just simply that models  have gotten way worse in handling Nina winters with the low pressure placements and movement and even if any low forms at all. They never really could handle Bs and phasing for our region .Too many parts apparently to sift through.  On an A, run  an already raining low over Atlanta into cold air over  us.  Easy, no real moving parts and infinite variables.

Last night a 500mb map jumped 800 miles in 6 hours. This  is not science, its patchwork example giving . 

[Amped]

Well the GFS only has one day 4 bust so far this week, so it's  overdue.

[stormy]

The GEPS, GEFS and EPS have all had some interest in Sunday, going back 5 days , and it continues.

Deterministic interest is only with the GFS at this time.

 

[Scraff]

Just getting back in here. Someone provide the cliff notes. Are we winning? Losing? 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Just now, Scraff said:

Just getting back in here. Someone provide the cliff notes. Are we winning? Losing? 

GFS shows a hit for us with a bigger storm along the coast, nothing else really supports it.  We are praying for it to score a coup for once.

[87storms]

1 minute ago, Scraff said:

Just getting back in here. Someone provide the cliff notes. Are we winning? Losing? 

Tbh, I have absolutely no idea lol

[Pityflakes]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Very subtle differences in the wave interactions(vorticity phasing) but that's all it takes in a situation like this. Bottom line is the shortwave turns neutral/negative later(too late) than the GFS. More runs to come and we will see somewhat different interactions and thus outcomes. Fun stuff eh?

 

eta- you can see it clearly in the panels you posted. Also happens with another piece energy a bit earlier. I have said this ad nauseum- all our hopes and dreams depend on random wave interactions and timing.

The Euro and the pre-12z GFS have a little vort max rounding the Ohio Valley and it "screws up" the orientation of the 500mb trough axis and delays it going negative.  The 12z GFS doesn't have that.  It's not crazy to think the models (even the Euro) might be overdoing that little piece of energy.  Though without a big block or 50/50 low I'd be a little skeptical that the surface low hugs the coast as depicted but who knows. 

[mappy]

2 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

Yeah so was urs 

Omg stop. A mod literally asked for more than quick quips and you’re arguing with someone else about it. Just post better or not at all. 

[mappy]

Gods we need snow. 

[winter_warlock]

3 minutes ago, mappy said:

Omg stop. A mod literally asked for more than quick quips and you’re arguing with someone else about it. Just post better or not at all. 

Point taken. Sry about that 

[psuhoffman]

How to interpret the guidance

Only the...

ICON shows snow=it's not gonna snow but at least you probably won't even notice

GFS shows snow=it's not gonna snow and you know it

GGEM shows snow=it's not gonna snow but your mind will linger on that one time it was right

ECMWF shows snow=it's not gonna snow but it's gonna hurt a bit more

If every single model shows snow....

It's still not going to snow but a piece of your soul is going to die when it doesn't.  

 

[IronTy]

Unless the GFS scores the coup on this storm then I think it needs to have the run hours cut down to max 84h and maybe it could just be relegated to replace the NAM.  Leave the long range deterministic modeling to the AI.  I have more faith in that model improving more in time.  

[bncho]

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

How to interpret the guidance

Only the...

ICON shows snow=it's not gonna snow but at least you probably won't even notice

GFS shows snow=it's not gonna snow and you know it

GGEM shows snow=it's not gonna snow but your mind will linger on that one time it was right

ECMWF shows snow=it's not gonna snow but it's gonna hurt a bit more

If every single model shows snow....

It's still not going to snow but a piece of your soul is going to die when it doesn't.  

 

If the NAM shows snow = it's not gonna snow but it's funny to look at
If the NAM shows a warm nose issue = there will definitely be a warm nose issue and we still won't get snow

[Shad]

When can we start getting NAMMED at hour 84....i thinking 6z tomorrow

[bncho]

The trend over the last several model runs has been to dig the trough more SW, priming it for an earlier negative tilt. The earlier the negative tilt, the closer we get to a bigger Raleigh-Boston winter storms.

[winter_warlock]

LWX. Disco mentions. The coastal possibilities on sunday-monday....

 

Uncertainty arises with potential system Sun into early Mon along
the east coast. Recent trends in guidance has been for this system
to dig a little more with potential low formation along eastern
seaboard, but lots of spread and with no blocking upstream
definitely a thread the needle scenario for accumulating snow.

Thereafter, frigid cold wind chills are expected with Cold Weather
headlines possible each night Sun through Wed in the Alleghenies and
Blue Ridge, and possible some lower elevations as well. Some
uncertainty with northern stream waves during this period as well,
but if there is precip, it is likely snow through the middle of next
week.