Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    18,414
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    oceanctyguy
    Newest Member
    oceanctyguy
    Joined

12/14: Sunday funday? Will the south win again?


TSSN+
 Share

Recommended Posts

I would have done better had I stuck to my initial forecast. It does look like my thoughts on the max strip from MoCo through SE PA verified warning criteria, but busted for the dmv. Some in the dmv were lucky enough to break an inch, and that would have verified on the low end. Still calling it a bust because precip came a bit early and temps took a while to catch up, and that hurt us from the start. Had it been an hour or so in our favor, we would have added another inch everywhere here. 4” would have been greedy, but a general 1-3” call would have been achieved if the precip band was an hour later. These things come down to luck and timing as always. Glad those to the NE got theirs, though! 

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I would have done better had I stuck to my initial forecast. It does look like my thoughts on the max strip from MoCo through SE PA verified warning criteria, but busted for the dmv. Some in the dmv were lucky enough to break an inch, and that would have verified on the low end. Still calling it a bust because precip came a bit early and temps took a while to catch up, and that hurt us from the start. Had it been an hour or so in our favor, we would have added another inch everywhere here. 4” would have been greedy, but a general 1-3” call would have been achieved if the precip band was an hour later. These things come down to luck and timing as always. Glad those to the NE got theirs, though! 

Bummed for our backyards. Suckered in by the model increases and that early burst! :( - Hoping January can turn the corner in the long range as Loudoun needs some good snow (And more of the DMV as well)

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

Bummed for our backyards. Suckered in by the model increases and that early burst! :( - Hoping January can turn the corner in the long range as Loudoun needs some good snow (And more of the DMV as well)

 

I’m starting to wonder if the mesos have a bias for more qpf in the 24 hours leading up to the event. We know the nam does this, but do other mesos have that same bias? I think the HRRR was onto something with the local minima over Loudoun.

  • Like 1
  • 100% 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

49 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

As we thought yesterday, Harford and Cecil would have verified warnings. North Baltimore and Carroll would have also and NW MoCo and NW HoCo came damn close.

Probably could have hit 6” here but temp didn’t get to 32 until 2-3hrs after snow started, so while it was snowing, it wasn’t sticking very much. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, T. August said:

This one was a tough measure. Not counting grass, I measured 2.9-3.5 in different areas. Some grass spots had 4”+

I’m leaning towards splitting the difference at 3.2”. @Kay what did you measure?

I had a tough time too, going with 3" for now while watching reports.

Looks great out there. My eyes are happy! A pasty, wet, stick-to-every-twig snow. Glad for the cold temps coming. Thought I heard thunder rumblings in the early a.m. half asleep.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I’m starting to wonder if the mesos have a bias for more qpf in the 24 hours leading up to the event. We know the nam does this, but do other mesos have that same bias? I think the HRRR was onto something with the local minima over Loudoun.

Mesos did a great job delaying the cold air at the surface which was one of the limiting factors (and poor snow growth at least imby). 1 more hour of snow below freezing everyone would’ve been happy 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

37 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I’m starting to wonder if the mesos have a bias for more qpf in the 24 hours leading up to the event. We know the nam does this, but do other mesos have that same bias? I think the HRRR was onto something with the local minima over Loudoun.

QPF was good around here, but it should have been a bigger warning sign that Kucera was less than 10:1.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I’m starting to wonder if the mesos have a bias for more qpf in the 24 hours leading up to the event. We know the nam does this, but do other mesos have that same bias? I think the HRRR was onto something with the local minima over Loudoun.

Any idea how much qpf we got?
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Went for a run it’s really freezing up in a hurry.  Almost like a mini flash freeze in progress. 

yeah i had to get the ice melt down quick - probably around 1.5" here (maybe closer to 2" - hard to say).  Side roads were covered.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, T. August said:

Cousin in the higher elevations of Havre de Grace (400’) got 5”. Frustrating being so close but those extra 2° made a huge difference. Haven’t had an elevation event in a long time.

Yep - we're at around 390' and got some accumulation.  Looks like downtown DC and places close to the river got basically nothing.

  • Like 1
  • 100% 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Kay said:

I had a tough time too, going with 3" for now while watching reports.

Looks great out there. My eyes are happy! A pasty, wet, stick-to-every-twig snow. Glad for the cold temps coming. Thought I heard thunder rumblings in the early a.m. half asleep.

Yeah it was difficult. I finally asked my neighbor if he would mind if I measured the sheltered area on his property. He was so confused but obliged. 3.3” was what was measured on the uncleared surface. So could have been a few tenths higher even, but alas, the 3.3” is what was submitted to LWX.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

×
×
  • Create New...