Hurricane Melissa

[WxWatcher007]

It’s off to the races now. 

[hawkeye_wx]

Yeah, given the current structure as it moves into diurnal max, it should be a good night.

[olafminesaw]

I do think that if this rapidly intensifies overnight or Tommorow it is very likely to go through an ERC before landfall on Jamaica. Timing will be key if that is the case, but the conditions support a relatively quick ERC more often than not, so not sure that's a good thing with wind field expansion and wider footprint of flooding rains 

[hawkeye_wx]

993 mb

[Interstate]

Looks like Jamaica might be spared. 

[andyhb]

13 minutes ago, Interstate said:

Looks like Jamaica might be spared. 

Based on what?

[Interstate]

25 minutes ago, andyhb said:

Based on what?

Well it seems like the envelope is moving east some. The GFS/Icon has just the east part getting hit. We will just have to wait and see. I also said might. 

[andyhb]

2 minutes ago, Interstate said:

Well it seems like the envelope is moving east some. The GFS/Icon has just the east part getting hit. We will just have to wait and see. I also said might. 

The GFS has been notably an eastern outlier for the track for days now.

[Sharknado123]

12 minutes ago, Interstate said:

Well it seems like the envelope is moving east some. The GFS/Icon has just the east part getting hit. We will just have to wait and see. I also said might. 

I rarely comment but I noticed you two days earlier harping on the gfs for being onto the truth. Doesn’t seem the case since the gfs essentially caved 

[NorthHillsWx]

39 minutes ago, Sharknado123 said:

I rarely comment but I noticed you two days earlier harping on the gfs for being onto the truth. Doesn’t seem the case since the gfs essentially caved 

GFS has been better than Euro and the hurricane models that took this well west of Jamaica. If anything they have started caving to GFS which was predicting the center reformation to the east that happened. That being said, none of this is good news for Jamaica they are squarely in the bullseye 

[Coach McGuirk]

It's forecasted to become a major cat 4 with 150 MPH winds. 

[Diggiebot]

1 minute ago, Coach McGuirk said:

It's forecasted to become a major cat 4 with 150 MPH winds. 

NHC always plays it safe. I think this nukes and goes to 165-170. If they are at 150 now then that tells me the sky is the limit 

[Boston Bulldog]

I don't think Melissa is home free just yet. Shear is still over the system and it's tilted at the midlevels. Upshear convection has done wonders in organizing the system, but Melissa needs one more convincing push to consolidate its inner core in order to commence RI

[Windspeed]

I don't think Melissa is home free just yet. Shear is still over the system and it's tilted at the midlevels. Upshear convection has done wonders in organizing the system, but Melissa needs one more convincing push to consolidate its inner core in order to commence RI

Shear is modeled to relax significantly. There may still be some light mid-level shear, but not enough to prevent a major hurricane given other environmental features. The real key here is the eventual position of the center when the steering currents change. Land interaction will be the only significant deterrent to high-end intensity, such as where Melissa is positioned when it begins the slow turn north. Upwelling isn't going to be much of a factor until it has already reached MPI, if Melissa goes through a stall or slow crawl during its northward turn, as OHC is deep in that part of the Caribbean.

[SnowenOutThere]

59 minutes ago, Boston Bulldog said:

I don't think Melissa is home free just yet. Shear is still over the system and it's tilted at the midlevels. Upshear convection has done wonders in organizing the system, but Melissa needs one more convincing push to consolidate its inner core in order to commence RI

Wonder if tonight (or the next few hours at least) may be a case of arrested development where there are very high cloud tops and intense convection but the storm isn't quite stacked enough to take advantage of it. 

[yoda]

Tropical Storm Melissa Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132025
1100 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025
 
Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that Melissa is still trying to get organized. While the
central pressure has fallen to 993 mb, the tail Doppler radar data
from the NOAA aircraft shows that the 500-mb center is displaced
about 20-25 n mi east-southeast of the surface center. The tilt is
also present at the aircraft flight levels, with dropsondes
released at the flight-level center missing the surface center and
reporting 25-35 kt surface winds. In addition, the aircraft radar
data and land-based radar data from Jamaica show that the cyclone
has not yet been able to develop a persistent eyewall. Based mainly
on the central pressure and satellite intensity estimates the
initial intensity is held at 55 kt.
 
Although the initial motion is a bit uncertain, Melissa now appears
to be moving slowly northwest with the initial motion 325/3 kt. A 
turn toward the west or west-northwest and a continued slow forward 
speed are expected in 12-24 h as low- to mid-level ridging builds 
to the north of the cyclone. This motion should continue through 
about 72 h. After that time, a deep-layer mid-latitude trough 
moving into the southeastern United States and the southwestern 
Atlantic will break the ridge to the north, with Melissa expected 
to turn northward and eventually northeastward as it recurves into 
the westerlies.  There remains a substantial spread in the guidance 
with respect to where the center of Melissa may pass in relation to 
Jamaica, with solutions ranging from the GFS passing near the 
eastern end of the island to the Canadian passing west of the 
island. The new forecast track is similar to the previous track and 
shows the center passing over Jamaica just after 72 h. However, any 
motion north of the current forecast track could bring the center 
near or over Jamaica at almost any time between 24-72 h. After 
passing Jamaica, Melissa is likely to move near or over eastern 
Cuba, but which portion of eastern Cuba may be most affected 
remains uncertain at this time.
 
While the westerly shear that has been affecting Melissa will not
completely stop during the next 2-3 days, it is forecast to
decrease to about 10-15 kt in 24 h or less. This should allow rapid
development as the storm is located in a moist environment over
very warm sea surface temperatures. The one short-term restraining
factor is that Melissa's structure is not quite good enough yet to
allow rapid intensification (RI), and thus it could be another
6-12 h before RI begins in earnest. The latest round of intensity
guidance shows somewhat lower peak intensities than the previous
advisory, mainly due to the models moving Melissa near or over
Jamaica. However, the current forecast track keeps the center
offshore for 72 h or more, and based on this the new intensity
forecast is at the high end of the guidance with a peak intensity
of 135 kt. Despite the weaker guidance, there is still a
possibility that Melissa could become a category 5 hurricane during
the forecast period. After passing near or over Jamaica, the cyclone
is forecast to weaken due to possible interaction with Cuba and
increasing southwesterly shear as Melissa encounters the
mid-latitude westerlies.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Jamaica:  Melissa’s slow movement will bring a multi-day period
of damaging winds and heavy rainfall beginning late Saturday or
Sunday, likely causing catastrophic flash flooding and numerous
landslides.  There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm
surge early next week. All preparations should be complete by late
Saturday.
 
2. Haiti:  Catastrophic flash flooding and landslides are expected
across southwestern Haiti into early next week, likely causing
extensive infrastructural damage and potentially prolonged isolation
of communities. Immediate preparations to protect life and property
are urged. Strong winds could also potentially last for a day or
more over the Tiburon peninsula.
 
3. Dominican Republic: Heavy rainfall could produce potentially
catastrophic flash flooding and numerous landslides in southern
regions.
 
4. Eastern Cuba, Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos:  Monitor Melissa
closely.  There is an increasing risk of a significant storm storm
surge, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall by the middle of next
week. In eastern Cuba, the risk of life-threatening flash flooding
and landslides is increasing.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/0300Z 16.1N  74.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  25/1200Z 16.5N  75.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  26/0000Z 16.7N  75.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  26/1200Z 16.8N  76.2W  105 KT 120 MPH
 48H  27/0000Z 16.8N  76.8W  120 KT 140 MPH
 60H  27/1200Z 16.9N  77.5W  135 KT 155 MPH
 72H  28/0000Z 17.4N  77.6W  135 KT 155 MPH
 96H  29/0000Z 19.3N  76.6W  115 KT 130 MPH
120H  30/0000Z 23.2N  73.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Beven

[Boston Bulldog]

Melissa is trying with this new eruption of convection. Still too early to tell if this is improving the structure under the hood

[Interstate]

Gfs/icon still east of envelope. 

[WxWatcher007]

28 minutes ago, Boston Bulldog said:

Melissa is trying with this new eruption of convection. Still too early to tell if this is improving the structure under the hood

Yeah no recent microwave passes to confirm. Still, this is probably the most robust it’s looked yet.

[hawkeye_wx]

987 mb

That should be the final recon pass until morning.

[hawkeye_wx]

Tonight's hurricane models (HWRF, HMON, HAFS) are no longer showing Melissa moving toward the west to the south of Jamaica.  They are all now moving the center nw to wnw into eastern Jamaica.

[GaWx]

8 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Tonight's hurricane models (HWRF, HMON, HAFS) are no longer showing Melissa moving toward the west to the south of Jamaica.  They are all now moving the center nw to wnw into eastern Jamaica.

 Also, the 0Z Euro is not nearly as strong as prior runs with 968 mb the strongest when 35 miles S of C Jamaica at hour 54. Then it landfalls at  hour 72 at 982 before a sharp turn ENE to E tip at 992. That is a change in the heading from NE across the island on prior runs. Rainfall is still torrential in E Jamaica with 18” at Kingston.

[GaWx]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132025
200 AM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025
 
...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER DATA SUGGEST MELISSA IS ALMOST A 
HURRICANE...
...LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES
EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 74.9W
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES

[hawkeye_wx]

6 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Also, the 0Z Euro is not nearly as strong as prior runs with 968 mb the strongest when 35 miles S of C Jamaica at hour 54. Then it landfalls at  hour 72 at 982 before a sharp turn ENE to E tip at 992. That is a change in the heading from NE across the island on prior runs. Rainfall is still torrential in E Jamaica with 18” at Kingston.

The favorable conditions really collapse on tonight's Euro once Melissa gets to Jamaica.

[GaWx]

7 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The Euro is predicting that the better conditions will be brief.  Once it gets to Jamaica, the trough sweeps in and yanks Melissa quickly northeast, and also shears it apart.

 If this is realistic, it could mean that the W 1/2 of Jamaica is saved from as devastating a blow as earlier feared although there’d still be extremely heavy rainfall especially in SE Jamaica along with the devastating consequences of that in that portion of the island.

[Nibor]

Impressive presentation over the past few hours. 

[WxWatcher007]

HAFS still get this to 140kt+ at 00z so I would look at the Euro with some skepticism tonight. It’s all about the track though. 

[A-L-E-K]

Props to the gfs

[Interstate]

Anyone else worried that NWS is relying on Google’s DeepMind model too much. 

[olafminesaw]

Maybe an eye showing on radar?