Spooky Season (October Disco Thread)

[WxWatcher007]

30 minutes ago, eyewall said:

I hear things were not great due to a drought but I remember 2022 was awesome when I took a VT trip. This is still one of my better foliage shots of all time (from Waterbury):

Not as good this year for sure. Pictures still don’t do it justice though. This is the SLK/Lake Placid area.

 

 

[moneypitmike]

59 off the overnight low of 65.

[tamarack]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Bun me now....this is just anecdotal, nothing more....but I do recall 1995 flipping on a dime from mild to cooler and stormy around this time.

We lived in Gardiner then, 9 miles south from AUG.  Oct. 6, 1995:  51/45, 2.33".

Tiny shower about 8 last evening 0.01", almost mocking.  Dumped precisely 1.00" from the Stratus this morning and radar suggests a final total near 1.5".   

[SJonesWX]

32 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Already some breaks to the north. 51.9°

1.08” will likely do it

<0.25" here 

[eyewall]

51 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

That is stunning.  Any filters used?

No filters just some basic processing in Lightroom but the colors were really vibrant then.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

0.51

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I was up at UML back then, Merrimack Valley, which I know you're familiar with that setting ha.

We started getting deep radiationally cold nights with cold still air dead fall of foliage from around peak color dates on...  I recall that specifically around mid October, 24 F low type mornings with leafs flitting down.  The cold clips the leaf stems, probably because phase change expanding the freezing water fractures.  There was new leaf litter directly beneath trees while sloped morning sun cut ineffectively sideways.  It was annoyingly cold having to crossing the Univ Ave bridge expanse for early classes that year.  The water trickles that run down the granite blocks along the north/shadow side of the aqueduct's fascia had begun to freeze - I recall thinking that must be early behavior.  Well before Halloween and by the end of the month ... the days were no longer rising past the upper 40s. The chilly days and shadow side the ice survived, still in tact late in afternoons.

Something was in the air that the season to hurriedly leaving warmth beyond.  In early November, we did have a day - I think - that made a run at 65, but it did not last. In fact, the next cool down was the first 'smells like snow' air.  As it were, we had a mix event that put down 1-2" of sleet mixed with mangled snow and cold rain.   That froze to the ground as it went even colder by mid month, when we had another more significant 3-5" sleet and snow event.  Temps tanked around then.  Clearly a western limb -NAO circulation mode was holding proxy over the temperatures, SE Can and New England.  I think if memory also recalls, this was not digging SW into the CONUS very far at that time.   It was sort of gradated, with winter here, prior to Thanks Giggedy, while still trying to hold on to mild conditions at Pittsburgh type of thing.  But it was pressing... by early December, everyone was bricked earth with a lot places having snow pack all the way to PA.   We were some 15" of snow pack, in single digit cold By Dec 10, and the "MRF" model runs were consistently producing snow events out to the end of the 10 day visions.  

As it were, in the Merrimack Valley, we really lost the ground around Nov 15-ish for good... did not see it until the big winter bust up thaw in latter January.   At one time we had 33" on the level snow pack shortly after the "Megalopolis Blizzard".  In fact, there was one more coastal that put down 6-8" wet snow over top, and I remember a lot of local media headline warnings to clear snow from any roof loading.  *8" of blue glory on a historic pack tends to cause structural failures..etc...  But during that last event, there were already signs that a big change was right there in the charts and indices, and well...  two Minnesota bombs and 10 days later, all that snow was down to just field puddles, while steam rolled off snow piles.  

Winter tried to make a comeback in February... and did - but with the memory of the early loaded blitz so awesome, it eclipses the memory some.  I remember still getting wet snow events into early April and not liking it that late.   But I never do... I'm usually pretty checked out by March.  

1995-96 was by far (29" ahead of #2) our snowiest winter of 13 at Gardiner, though the thaws left SDDs in 5th place.  Five straight months began with cold and snow, finished with mild and wet.  Cherrypicking the dates illustrates the contrasts.  The top line shows the data for Dec 1-21, Jan 1-16, Feb 1-19, Mar 1-11 and April 1/14 - total of 81 days.  Lower line combines the remainders of those months, 71 total days.

Avg max    Avg min   Depart.   Precip    Snow     SN/day
   26.4            9.1        -6.4        11.56"     127.4"    1.57"
   44.1           24.2       +4.8       14.58         9.2      0.13"

[HoarfrostHubb]

37 minutes ago, SJonesWX said:

<0.25" here 

Similar at my place  0.29   Steiney stein stein

[Ginx snewx]

.65 Moosup Ct 

[CT Valley Snowman]

.74 at a nearby PWS here in Enfield.  We take.  

[powderfreak]

Had just over an inch here.

1.09”

[Cold Miser]

...The scent of a future chill in the air has brought me out of warm weather hibernation. 

The cold and snow can begin soon.

Thanks in advance. 

[weathafella]

BOS at 0.80

[Lava Rock]

0.80" will do it. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

[CoastalWx]

Looks like Ray is implying a 100" winter for BOS. Sweet.

[alex]

1.87 final

[40/70 Benchmark]

37 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks like Ray is implying a 100" winter for BOS. Sweet.

I think the analog does have some utility....it's a great ENSO analog....but there are also some glaring limitations; namely the solar cycle and the western Pacific.