ravensrule Posted January 5, 2025 Share Posted January 5, 2025 22 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Do I need to strap anything on to extrapolate? @ravensrule Do you think they deleted my clean response because they don’t like me?. Maybe the mods can borrow some of your Viagra so they can become even stiffer. 2 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 5, 2025 Share Posted January 5, 2025 13 minutes ago, RayRoy said: What's the difference between that and this? One is newer than the other 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 5, 2025 Share Posted January 5, 2025 Latest from the NWS' experimental Probabilistic Precipitation Portal (https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/Prob_Precip/). Granted, there will undoubtedly be a sharper gradient with the higher amounts, with lesser amounts on either side of the best FGEN banding, but it does look like most of the forum will get at least 6". That's what I'm hoping for -- and I'm glad to see those 6" probs went up near the M/D line (to 65-70%). 8"+ probs are 45-50% now near the M/D line (also up from previous model cycle), while IMBY here in central AA County up to around 67%. Meanwhile, 12" probs went up IMBY towards Annapolis as well (now 35-40%), no doubt given the robust 12Z high-res CAM guidance. Still thinking 7-9" as a 'mode' for a large chunk of the immediate metro region. Some areas maybe less (farther north), obviously those underneath the best bands have a better chance of hitting 10-11+ inches given the better (deeper) ascent within the dendritic growth layer. More about the membership in this ensemble, which uses the NDFD snow forecast as the 'mode' of the distribution: Welcome to the Probabilistic Precipitation Portal, a resource provided by the National Weather Service to communicate the range and probability of possible precipitation amounts over the next 72 hours (3 days). Data on this page come from the Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (PQPF) and the Probabilistic Winter Precipitation Forecast (PWPF), which are updated twice daily at the Weather Prediction Center. These probabilistic forecasts are derived from a blend of the following: 10 members from the NCEP GEFS ensemble 25 members from the ECMWF ensemble 10 members from the Canadian ensemble 1 member from the NCEP SREF NMMB 2 most recent runs of the NCEP HRRR model 2 most recent runs of the Canadian Regional Model 2 most recent runs of the NCEP NAM 3km CONUS Nest model 4 NCEP Hi-res WRF-ARW model runs NCEP Hi-res FV3LAM model NCEP GFS model ECMWF deterministic model NCEP GEFS ensemble mean NDFD forecast This page updates each hour, typically at 25 minutes past the hour. 10 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2025 Share Posted January 5, 2025 8 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: From one Scott to another, Appreciate stopping by and chatting with us. I always love when you stop by and offer thoughts. You were one of the many on here I learned a lot from over the past 15 years. I mean it sincerely that you are one of my favorite posters on this board and appreciate your insight. A cold beer on me next time I’m in Southern New England As just one question for you…how much do you have for the Annapolis area? (I had to ask ) Thank you for the kind words,man. I really appreciate that. I just enjoy this stuff, but unfortunately I don’t forecast professionally anymore. I’m doing some other stuff, but damn I do miss the forecasting. I have not looked in that area. I’m just kinda casually looking and just giving my thoughts without putting my you know what on the line lol. I can look a little later and let you know. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 5, 2025 Share Posted January 5, 2025 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Mod snow, big flakes, half mile viz, and sticking on everything. I'll post pics in a bit Small flakes but finally snowing here. We'll see what happens. Down to 29.8/14.0. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 5, 2025 Share Posted January 5, 2025 21 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: HRRR total. Its a beaut: I pray it's right. What an event that would be! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 5, 2025 Share Posted January 5, 2025 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Thank you for the kind words,man. I really appreciate that. I just enjoy this stuff, but unfortunately I don’t forecast professionally anymore. I’m doing some other stuff, but damn I do miss the forecasting. I have not looked in that area. I’m just kinda casually looking and just giving my thoughts without putting my you know what on the line lol. I can look a little later and let you know. Why would one of the best forecasters stop forecasting?. I hope it’s for bigger and better things. Having you in our subforum in 09-10 was better than the Ravens winning the SB (well almost). I hope things are well with you. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 5, 2025 Share Posted January 5, 2025 17 minutes ago, pazzo83 said: dude whenever I drive back to my parents' house in Staunton, I much prefer the DC to Front Royal leg on I-66 than the I-81 leg. I hate that f'ing road. It's a shit show. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 5, 2025 Share Posted January 5, 2025 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Thank you for the kind words,man. I really appreciate that. I just enjoy this stuff, but unfortunately I don’t forecast professionally anymore. I’m doing some other stuff, but damn I do miss the forecasting. I have not looked in that area. I’m just kinda casually looking and just giving my thoughts without putting my you know what on the line lol. I can look a little later and let you know. No worries, Scott!! I appreciate any forecast you could offer. I truly meant everything in my last post! This will be my biggest snow event since I moved back to MD from TX. Pretty stoked. Now we just need a I-95 KU from Richmond to Boston so we can all sing kumbaya and toast to an east coast victory. Cheers 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 5, 2025 Share Posted January 5, 2025 NWS (blacksburg) upgraded to a warning with up to 4" of snow and sleet before zr lol. It's dumping. I'm under oranges. Let's fookin go! 18 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 5, 2025 Share Posted January 5, 2025 Just now, MillvilleWx said: No worries, Scott!! I appreciate any forecast you could offer. I truly meant everything in my last post! This will be my biggest snow event since I moved back to MD from TX. Pretty stoked. Now we just need a I-95 KU from Richmond to Boston so we can all sing kumbaya and toast to an east coast victory. Cheers Can it please just skip over NY. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted January 5, 2025 Share Posted January 5, 2025 I’m loving the 7% chance of 18"! (From LWX winter page) Location Low-End Amount Expected Amount High-End Amount Chance of Seeing More Than 0.1" 1" 2" 4" 6" 8" 12" 18" Annapolis, MD 4" 7" 17" 100% 98% 97% 92% 80% 65% 35% 7% 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 5, 2025 Share Posted January 5, 2025 1 minute ago, EastCoast NPZ said: It's a shit show. Yeah my son goes to Radford. That drive is like being punched in the face while a rat chews Cheez wiz off your marbles. Yep that bad 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 5, 2025 Share Posted January 5, 2025 DCPS closed on Monday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 5, 2025 Share Posted January 5, 2025 WB 18Z 3K NAM heavier band tick north at 6am 6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted January 5, 2025 Share Posted January 5, 2025 There is a LOT of precip down in NC. Which of the models handled that the best? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 5, 2025 Share Posted January 5, 2025 31 Wind dying down a bit. Frozen ground(with lots of lumps and ridges-effing moles) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 5, 2025 Share Posted January 5, 2025 it switched over to sleet in blacksburg after large flakes. Was really hoping for oranges but guess not. Picked up maybe an inch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 5, 2025 Share Posted January 5, 2025 Just now, Weather Will said: WB 18Z 3K NAM heavier band tick north at 6am Bring it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted January 5, 2025 Share Posted January 5, 2025 Just now, nw baltimore wx said: Here comes the flood. Cecil and Harford Counties have already closed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScienceTeacher Posted January 5, 2025 Share Posted January 5, 2025 19 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Mod snow, big flakes, half mile viz, and sticking on everything. I'll post pics in a bit lol I didn’t realize it was that close… I know you are down in sw Virginia now but even so the ob took me by surprise. I really hope the column holds for you and you do well! Good luck. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 5, 2025 Share Posted January 5, 2025 On the eve of this storm, I pray for good luck to all. May it over-perform for each of you. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 5, 2025 Share Posted January 5, 2025 1 minute ago, RickinBaltimore said: Cecil and Harford Counties have already closed I’m sure BCPS will follow suit 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
katabatic Posted January 5, 2025 Share Posted January 5, 2025 10 minutes ago, wxdude64 said: Small flakes but finally snowing here. We'll see what happens. Down to 29.8/14.0. I really hope you do well my friend! Clouds are lowering and thickening here in GC and super excited. I hope you stay SN throughout the whole storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 5, 2025 Share Posted January 5, 2025 Latest Nam is a work of art. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 5, 2025 Share Posted January 5, 2025 Good bit back north on the 3km NAM. Big totals M/D line folks to NoVA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 5, 2025 Share Posted January 5, 2025 WB 18Z 3k NAM at 5pm Mon. not over yet. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 5, 2025 Share Posted January 5, 2025 3 minutes ago, Rhino16 said: it switched over to sleet in blacksburg after large flakes. Was really hoping for oranges but guess not. Picked up maybe an inch. Dang it lol. I figured the warning was a tease and mirage but I'm lovin it no matter. Bottom of the hill is a little marina on the lake. I could sled 50mph right into the lake hahaha 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 5, 2025 Share Posted January 5, 2025 5 minutes ago, IUsedToHateCold said: There is a LOT of precip down in NC. Which of the models handled that the best? Not many. Small hints on the nam and euro at some points, but the in house models from the local tv stations were the best and most aggressive by far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 5, 2025 Share Posted January 5, 2025 2 minutes ago, katabatic said: I really hope you do well my friend! Clouds are lowering and thickening here in GC and super excited. I hope you stay SN throughout the whole storm. That would be awesome, but I sorta doubt it will. I'll most certainly go sleet at some point, if not freezing rain. Just a little too far south for this one, still thinking we get 4-6 before the mess arrives. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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