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Following a Miller A/B hybrid type coastal potential, Feb 13th ... As yet untapped potential and a higher ceiling with this one


Typhoon Tip
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4 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

GFS isn't a total disaster

Yeah I've been expecting S trends but these aren't as bad as I was thinking....that's still a big fronto sig from like HFD/Kevin over to BOS....the trends are concerning, but there's def still a good banding potential there on that run.

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

I thought verbatim mid levels were decent.BOS-HFD.

Yeah when I looked at that I got a bit excited. 

I just have no clue what to think. This jump south today is mind boggling. If we see a jump back north on 0z guidance I may just quit. There is clearly something the models are really struggling to resolve. Just going to have to nowcast the next several hours. 

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23 minutes ago, TheSnowman said:

Dude, do you realize I got 15" last year, and at 12" this year, Have Averaged only 32" in the past 6 Seasons AFTER averaging 71" for the previous 24 Years?  And Most of the big storms that occurred in those last 6 years, I Missed Traveling.  So speak for yourself.  I haven't seen more than 4" on the Ground During a storm in so long I can't remember.  

lol.  My 11" from last season laughs at your 15", and my 8" this season chuckles at your so called 12" of futility. 

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Definitely not the debacle that UK/Euro were earlier for inside 495 and southeast... H7 low in a decent spot. 

As Tip said, from the lay public's perspective, at least would look like a snow storm for a while justifying all the closings. Though I'm not at all confident this is the final outcome.

18z GFS H7:

image.png.6152b2010585511c988f895d3ad1ba8b.png

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1 hour ago, PWMan said:

My area was never in the game for really big totals, but at this time yesterday we were progged for 6-8 and as of this morning the NWS GYX probabilistic map still had us at >60% for 6+. Now it looks quite possible that we won't see a single flake.

As others have noted, what makes it especially bewildering is that the goalposts had seemed to close and we were down to minor oscillations - then the rug got pulled out completely less than 24 hours out. It also seems unusual to have things move south so dramatically in the absence of a big dome of cold air pushing down; usually you associate suppression with deep cold. It feels like spring out there again today.

Deep southern stream s/w without any northern stream interaction does not generally bode well for us up here, We were getting some partial phasing with the northern stream a few days back that got this system further north and had some hoping it would stop, Once we lost the northern stream help and some weaker solutions, It went south, Better shot for us with the clipper late week, At least that's a northern stream event.

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

21z RAP coming in with a solid bump NW so far through 12 hours compared to 20z.

Doesn't help us a whole lot out east this run, but I'm hoping this translates as we get closer...it was noticeable back in PA.

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19 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

My guess it's just moreso the initialization of the features and how they're evolving in real time. Just going through quickly but between some guidance and today, the differences between the evolution of the northern/southern streams don't seem too significant but certainly enough to result in larger differences at the surface. 

I'm also getting the distinct impression that this preceding airmass being hot garbage provides wide swings when you start looking at snowfall maps with little change in the upper levels.  If we had a colder airmass in place, ratios wouldn't be as much of an issue considering the overall placement of the low pressure.  It going a little farther south, as mentioned in the discussions, causes the better lift and the mechanics to cool off the atmosphere more quickly and comprehensively go along with it, and no one is sure if back side cold air can balance that out.  A week ago we weren't even sure a snowstorm for a large part of the area could materialize considering the confidence in it being +10 to +20 for several days before hand and no cold front coming before it to inject cold air into the region.

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7 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Actually the messenger shuffle typically ends with a few ticks back north at the last minute.

lol that’s not how I remember Messenger shuffles up here.  They go ESE each run to go time, a tiny bit at a time.  Like a torture you can’t avoid :lol:.

When Messenger was posting bouy observations and every RAP run each hour sliding away in the last 6 hours before an event.

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24 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Still decent south of Pike but might be too high still.

 

A76A468B-BE5F-4CC7-9FE6-8E7BF7568A91.thumb.jpeg.79fb1bd4f7bfd3f047bd8cbd25ad0278.jpeg

Oof.  From solidly in the 12-18" in Worcester to this?  Part of me wishes I was a fly on the wall when they had to make this call over at NWS.  About 12 hours before the storm, no less.

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3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

lol that’s not how I remember Messenger shuffles up here.  They go ESE each run to go time, a tiny bit at a time.  Like a torture you can’t avoid :lol:.

When Messenger was posting bouy observations and every RAP run each hour sliding away in the last 6 hours before an event.

I'll never forget the drives up route 3 looking for the r/s line.  

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24 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I've been expecting S trends but these aren't as bad as I was thinking....that's still a big fronto sig from like HFD/Kevin over to BOS....the trends are concerning, but there's def still a good banding potential there on that run.

Even looking at the 19z/20z HRRR there's a great banding/snow growth signal through most of CT up through boston. 

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I had to return a sweater I bought for someone today.  The lady asked if I was prepared for the big storm-she sounded weenieish.  I told her not to count on it and she started to argue with me.  I just told her to try to remember who told her first.  She said well you remember me when it happens!

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Been working all day and trying to pay no attention to the weather but have been daydreaming about the local nordic center opening Wednesday and getting a good stretch of skiing in before I head west next week. As currently forecast, they aren't opening. stinks.

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