GansettBay

Same here. 8.5" in Gunbarrel with at least .5" compaction since the lull began. Hoping to break a foot with what's to come!

Interesting! Thanks for sharing. I'll take a look at the full discussion when I get a moment later on

Based on previously experience, I suspect that the changeover could happen sooner due to the strong upslope, which models often seem to struggle to account for. This could significantly increase forecasted totals on most of the models except maybe the HRRR, which shows similar QPF outputs to others, but higher snow totals. Any thoughts?

It felt personal lol. But you are right. I suppose we're all a bit disgruntled over this one

Things only a mason would say. This is a public forum mate, not another one of your elitist clubhouses lol

Just nuking in East Boulder. About 6" down and steady 1/2 mile vis. Looks like at least a few more hours of this

Interesting that the GFS has shown back to back runs with 12"+ in the metro area. Would this be indicative of optimal upslope and formation of a barrier jet?

Good info thanks! Models didn't seems to overstate the warmth this week and I'm operating under the assumption that this weekend will be no different. It seems like p-types around here will be highly dependent on how strong of an upslope we get.

That is some good info, thanks! I did read that Longmont has a yearly average snowfall of 36" versus 96" in Boulder, which as you mentioned, is almost certainly measured west of 36. So I assume my location in East Boulder typically sees far less than that. I checked out the AFD as well. It seems there is a still a bit of uncertainty about p-types between 5-6k ft. It's quite an interesting setup that's for sure!

This will be my second winter in Boulder. I have seen some of the heaviest snow rates in my life since moving here, but I think we only had one storm hit around a 9" total and nothing above 7" since then. I know that temperature is going to be a big issue with this one as well. Is there any shot that the models are overestimating the warmth or is our best hope for this storm to happen at night?

Fingers crossed El Nino continues to bring us enough moisture for some good snows this season. I am in the very northeastern part of Boulder and frequently lose out to those sharp gradients between here and the foothills, but I can't complain after moving from coastal New England.

I saw that tweet as well. Those statistics have kept me holding on to hope, but expectations are lowered. I spent most of my life on the coast of RI and snow has become even rarer there. I think they've probably had a dozen rain events over .4" since December. As a snow fanatic it was pretty miserable sometimes

That makes a lot of sense regarding the difficulties in predicting storms out here versus ones that have crossed the entire US before hitting the East Coast. I did hear Brian Bledsoe from the Desert Farmer Podcast mention that the el nino pattern is beginning to change. Hopefully we can still get some decent moisture out of it going into the spring. Thanks for the educational content!

Thanks for the warm welcome! And for breaking that down for me. I moved here from RI so I'm not stranger to rain in February, but I've been waiting for the big one since I've been out here and this seemed promising early on. Overall, it seems like models generally struggle a bit more in our region and it seems to be tough to nail down a confident forecast here outside of 48 hours. I don't do any forecasting myself, but that seems to be the case for a lot of the mets I follow on Twitter and whatnot.

Would you kindly elaborate on these thoughts for a layman such as myself? I moved to the Front Range from the Northeast a couple of years ago and miss the highly detailed weather discussions in those forums. Nice to see that there's a few of you on here though!