Following a Miller A/B hybrid type coastal potential, Feb 13th ... As yet untapped potential and a higher ceiling with this one

[Typhoon Tip]

Hey folks..  

Similar to priors this season ... we are only just medium confidence for this event coverage ( I mean that relative to outlook standards at D5-7), perhaps owning to this still being 6.5+ days away, notwithstanding.

The simple worded version: the techniques/recognition/experience tells me we have crossed the threshold into high enough confidence to elevate the 13th for focused awareness. Part of the significance of which is that it has an unusually high ceiling for maximization due to being footed by leading planetary -scaled index modalities.  That sort of brings a smoldering urgency to do so earlier - but please don't mistake that as aggrandizing or 'plugging'  for the drama. 

Some techniques:

1   the numerical teleonnector/graphical projection from all three, EPS/GGEM/GEFS ensemble sources. A robust pattern acceleration toward +PNA actually begins this week, but  takes off and approaches +2 standard deviations between the 15th and 17th.  The places the 11th -15th as the 'inflection' along that index's modulation - while  these indexes are changing tends to be ( but not always ) the sweet spot for a corrective event.  If the PNA were to rise and statically remain elevated, you can actually get into more stable regimes with more smaller sub-index scaled dosing ( haha).  Anyway, the ceiling elevation comes from the notion that erstwhile depictions for this by the operational guidance have, to date, been deep lows but situated too far SE in their illustrations, or even 'cyclone smears' ... both circumstantially evolved because the models are not creating enough meridian flow orientation. That would be fine in and of itself, but that is not really very well supported by #2 below 

2   this is key ... the actual pattern layout by the operational runs has not represented the canonical +PNA --> +PNAP  flow orientation, at least not very well.  Overnight ... that subtly but perhaps crucially changed/improved.  More coherently now,...the operational versions have an arced over top 'dump in' delivery look out of the high latitude NE Pacific and NW Territories.  It might be that we are on the verge of the modeling organizing a more proficient phasing environment.  Remains to be seen. The previous versions were stretching the flow in the W-E velocity direction, particularly true over the last several cycles of the GFS ... showing a S/stream wave space out running the N/stream.  However, the 06z GFS shows how just a little more total R-wave curved structure transmitting from upstream, immediate results in a bombogenesis scenario - whether this guidance cycle turns holy or not, the take away is the demo of, if not nod toward, correcting the erstwhile W-E bias in the modeled flow behavior toward one that is favored by the telecon spread.  

So with that, ...here's some charts.  Ens of 00Z Euro and 06z GEFs - note: the spread region is along the NW arc, within which there are lows that are unsually deep relative to the 998. That excessive amount of deviation from the mean is indicative of the modeling physics at least being aware that the untapped potential/thus higher ceiling is in there.  This could come into shorter range as a major, notwithstanding. 

 

And for the eye-candy that I feel is more than mere sweet..  This has some physical plausibility that is connected to the above discussion.  I get the feeling there's been some "falsely lack-luster" performance on this, ... perhaps thus far.  But we'll see on that.  I'll use what is obviously already been seen ( no doubt!) by most.  Again, I emphasize, medium confidence over all, but ... the upside higher ceiling is very real based on what I believe is a strong argument.  It is just possible that a major cyclone or even "bomb" manifests and just misses like a dystopian horror story known as 1987 ( don't get me started on that f'n storm )

[Damage In Tolland]

Lord have mercy 

[JKEisMan]

Time to have some fun.

[Prismshine Productions]

@AstronomyEnjoyer's favorite model (the ICONic) is settling in the batter's box, see ya in 45 minutes

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[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 minute ago, Prismshine Productions said:

@AstronomyEnjoyer's favorite model (the ICONic) is settling in the batter's box, see ya in 45 minutes

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LOL I can proudly say I've never had to refresh my webpage waiting for the ICON model to load.  Although I hear it's slightly better this winter.. @ORH_wxman what are your thoughts on the ICON's performance recently?

[40/70 Benchmark]

This reminds me a bit of the major December 2019 system.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

 

Damn! Some crazy amped members that would likely still be bombing out if this went out post 144

[ORH_wxman]

26 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

LOL I can proudly say I've never had to refresh my webpage waiting for the ICON model to load.  Although I hear it's slightly better this winter.. @ORH_wxman what are your thoughts on the ICON's performance recently?

I don’t really follow the ICON that much. Its a bit noisy for my liking. I treat it like the other JV models. It’s prob better than the NAVGEM and JMA and those types, but I’d never weight it more than the GGEM or Ukie. 
 

It mostly has any use at all because it comes out early so sometimes we can get a better sense of what the gee tal model trends will be on that particular cycle. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I don’t really follow the ICON that much. Its a bit noisy for my liking. I treat it like the other JV models. It’s prob better than the NAVGEM and JMA and those types, but I’d never weight it more than the GGEM or Ukie. 
 

It mostly has any use at all because it comes out early so sometimes we can get a better sense of what the gee tal model trends will be on that particular cycle. 

Ya I bet the fact that it comes out first is a big reason why its even looked at and talked about .. If it came out at the same time as GFS and Canadian I bet it would be forgotten.. Having it come out during the dead time can satisfy a weenies craving to get NAM'd or in this case i- CON'd pun intended

[HIPPYVALLEY]

35 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This reminds me a bit of the major December 2019 system.

That one was a fine start to snow season.

17” in Greenfield.  Sort of my last “big dog” storm.

[CoastalWx]

Alright well in all seriousness, this probably is interior favored. Maybe deep interior. Just looking at the EPS mean...you have a ridge on the west coast (typically not a suppressed look) and not much confluence to our north. Maybe that nrn stream moves in a little quicker to help prevent that low from taking off due north...but my gut says this is definitely at least an interior event.

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

That one was a fine start to snow season.

17” in Greenfield.  Sort of my last “big dog” storm.

I had 19", same as Jan 6-7 this year, but the latter was better because it was more intense.....the former was protracted through two waves over a couple of days.

This past Jan 6-7 was defintely my best since March 2018 and probably a top 10 event for me....its not all about snowfall total, but also how well I do relative to the rest of the region and the intensity over shorter time intervals. Most of that snow fell over a few hours during the predawn hours...it was incredible.

[mreaves]

28 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I don’t really follow the ICON that much. Its a bit noisy for my liking. I treat it like the other JV models. It’s prob better than the NAVGEM and JMA and those types, but I’d never weight it more than the GGEM or Ukie. 
 

It mostly has any use at all because it comes out early so sometimes we can get a better sense of what the gee tal model trends will be on that particular cycle. 

Now you've done it.  George is going to challenge you to a duel!

[40/70 Benchmark]

@dryslotThat was a quick "few days"

[GCWarrior]

I’d like a repeat of December 2019.  Almost 2’ around here.  I’d like to skip the blow torch two weeks later though.  

[radarman]

19 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

That one was a fine start to snow season.

17” in Greenfield.  Sort of my last “big dog” storm.

25" settled in BTown.  Top 3 storm IMBY in the last 20 years so love any reference to it.  That said it was really a 2 parter, with a substantial time gap between the WAA hit and then a squeeze underneath with training echoes that just hammered overnight.  

[ORH_wxman]

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

@dryslotThat was a quick "few days"

Can’t keep them down for long. 
 

12z ICON coming out slow today. 

[Prismshine Productions]

Same as the 6z EPS, 12z ICON has a slightly taller PNA vs its 6z run out to hr54

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[Prismshine Productions]

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[ORH_wxman]

The icon is just fundamentally different than other guidance outside of the Ukie. It completely separates the northern and southern streams. Only ICON and 00z Ukie are doing this. 
 

It’s a plausible solution but you’d want to see more support for it. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

The icon is just fundamentally different than other guidance outside of the Ukie. It completely separates the northern and southern streams. Only ICON and 00z Ukie are doing this. 
 

It’s a plausible solution but you’d want to see more support for it. 

That provides a more unilateral moderate event.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I think SOP should want a UK/ICON scenario, but from about the NH border and up should take chances with a phased solution...JMHO.

[Prismshine Productions]

That provides a more unilateral moderate event.

Wouldn't that be a safer play at this point?

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[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Wouldn't that be a safer play at this point?

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I would rather take my chances with a phase, and defintely you. I don't need a 2 hour commute for 5" of snow, but I know some of the guys that have been screwed over understandably want that.

Larger event would get me the day off and rain is less of an inconvenience.

[Prismshine Productions]

GFS out to 30 already got a increased pac ridge when looping the frame with 6z...

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[ORH_wxman]

Icon doesn’t phase but it’s still a hugger. Big hit for CNE. SNE does get some snow but not warning snow until you’re north of the pike. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Icon doesn’t phase but it’s still a hugger. Big hit for CNE. SNE does get some snow but not warning snow until you’re north of the pike. 

Suprising solution....I guess that isn't physically impossible, but I would say odds are it would track further south if unphased.

It the ICON, anyway.

[CoastalWx]

GFS looks warm. 

[weathafella]

GFS trying To phase out to 135.

[ORH_wxman]

GFS is gonna be warm and zonked.