winterwarlock Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 2 hours ago, Allsnow said: @winterwarlock the rain is back we shall see...my area only picked up about an inch in our 3 days of rain..rather meh...considering we had basically nothing in 10 days before that luckily timing was great for the game yesterday with the storms rolling through before we started tailgaiting for the ru game but not during or during the game 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 Rain is just about done. Quick shower. Maybe we got 0.10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 1 hour ago, MANDA said: At this point I'll take a front that will at least clear out the humidity! Getting a little tired of the warmth + humidity. Yep and that's coming for later in the week. Looks like a nice stretch of low humidity weather starting on thursday. Dewpoints could get down to the high 40s late week. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Active tropics If one of these random runs west of the ensemble means near Cape Cod actually happen, then it will be a big win for the newer AI models. This will be the big test case coming up. Imagine if they end up being right. Maybe we could actually nail a day 7-10 snowstorm forecast for once. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jacob brooklyn Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 1 hour ago, MANDA said: At this point I'll take a front that will at least clear out the humidity! Getting a little tired of the warmth + humidity. Just a little tired?? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jacob brooklyn Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 32 minutes ago, psv88 said: Rain is just about done. Quick shower. Maybe we got 0.10. So I can take my E scooter out later? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
guinness77 Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 1 hour ago, WestBabylonWeather said: Rmine. You got your rain . Didn’t last long. Looks like a blob coming up from Jersey in a few hours but none of it looks severe at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 27 minutes ago, bluewave said: If one of these random runs west of the ensemble means near Cape Cod actually happen, then it will be a big win for the newer AI models. This will be the big test case coming up. Imagine if they end up being right. Maybe we could actually nail a day 7-10 snowstorm forecast for once. We can only hope. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 6 minutes ago, uofmiami said: We can only hope. The funny thing about the modeling with Lee is that all the models have been taking turns having these west of ensemble mean tracks from run to run. So there is still some question on how fast the trough lifts out of the NE later in the week and ridging builds in behind it. If that trough can’t dig enough, then we won’t have it to safely boot LEE OTS for interests near the Cape. So there is a lot riding on the track in terms of storm impacts and the future of AI in weather forecasting. We could only imagine how AI might impact winter storm forecasting if they show more skill than the regular models with Lee and other test cases going forward. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Intensewind002 Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 Picked up 0.03” of rain earlier today, only 0.04” for the month of September so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 .36 inch of rain here. First rain all month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 the hrrr has been consistently showing 2-6" of rain with this next batch but its placement looks a little too far north and the heavy amounts could include parts of the metro 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 Some showers and thundershowers will be possible tomorrow. Readings will top out in the upper 70s to perhaps low 80s. A strong cold front will cross the region on Wednesday with some thunderstorms. Behind it, parts of the region could see their coolest temperatures so far this fall. Hurricane Lee will remain a powerful storm over the next several days. Atlantic Canada faces the highest risk of landfall, but New England landfall still cannot completely be ruled out. The picture will clear in coming days. The ECMWF weeklies had forecast temperatures to average above to much above normal across the region for the September 4-11 period. That forecast is verifying with the ongoing heatwave. September has increasingly become an extension of summer in parts of the Northeast. Since 2000, almost half of all years (48%) have had a monthly mean temperature of 70° or above in New York City. Prior to 2000, just 20% of Septembers had mean temperatures of 70° or above. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.6°C for the week centered around August 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.22°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.32°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the fall with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño for the upcoming winter. The SOI was -21.57 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.283 today. On September 8 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 2.509 (RMM). The September 7-adjusted amplitude was 2.666 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 74% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 71.5° (2.3° above normal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 10, 2023 Author Share Posted September 10, 2023 Steady rain again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 11, 2023 Share Posted September 11, 2023 9/10 PHL: 84 ISP: 82 ACY: 82 EWR: 81 New Brswck: 81 TEB: 80 LGA: 80 JFK: 80 TTN: 80 BLM: 79 NYC: 77 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted September 11, 2023 Share Posted September 11, 2023 5 minutes ago, SACRUS said: 9/10 PHL: 84 ISP: 82 ACY: 82 EWR: 81 New Brswck: 81 TEB: 80 LGA: 80 JFK: 80 TTN: 80 BLM: 79 NYC: 77 Really can see the parks elevation keeping the temps down today… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 11, 2023 Share Posted September 11, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jacob brooklyn Posted September 11, 2023 Share Posted September 11, 2023 Just now, SACRUS said: And I thought we were done after this morning!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 11, 2023 Share Posted September 11, 2023 Lightning is very frequent in CNJ/Coastal NJ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 11, 2023 Share Posted September 11, 2023 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: 18Z GFS is a double New England whammy Lee then Nigel a week later. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted September 11, 2023 Share Posted September 11, 2023 12 minutes ago, SACRUS said: 18Z GFS is a double New England whammy Lee then Nigel a week later. Hurricanes moving up along or off of the eastern seaboard is often followed by a cold snowy winter. WX/PT 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 11, 2023 Share Posted September 11, 2023 Pouring here again. Up to 1.32" of rain so far today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted September 11, 2023 Share Posted September 11, 2023 Ok, I’m over this pattern. . 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Euripides Posted September 11, 2023 Share Posted September 11, 2023 Nice rainy evening with some lightning and rumbles of thunder. At least the afternoon was dry after the early morning rain. Time to close the pool later this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted September 11, 2023 Share Posted September 11, 2023 Easily over 2” here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SI Mailman Posted September 11, 2023 Share Posted September 11, 2023 Over an inch and a half of rain for the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted September 11, 2023 Share Posted September 11, 2023 I really enjoy the sounds of the rain at night. So quiet and peaceful. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 11, 2023 Share Posted September 11, 2023 Picked up 1.93" of rain for the day. 3 day rainfall total since Friday 2.94" Current temp 71/DP 70/RH 99% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 11, 2023 Share Posted September 11, 2023 I think @wdrag is going to be spot on with some of his concerns in his previous posts regarding this weeks rainfall and flooding potential. Some places have picked up a good amount of rain already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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