FPizz Posted July 19, 2023 Share Posted July 19, 2023 Just now, Allsnow said: .25 .02" here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted July 19, 2023 Share Posted July 19, 2023 Steady rain on Fire Island the past couple of hours. 0.23” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 19, 2023 Share Posted July 19, 2023 1 hour ago, forkyfork said: is everyone pretending this region isn't +2 or higher this month? against the highest normals we've ever had 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 19, 2023 Share Posted July 19, 2023 4th day in a row of rain. I am all set. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 19, 2023 Share Posted July 19, 2023 11 minutes ago, psv88 said: 4th day in a row of rain. I am all set. completely waterlogged here-reminds me of August 2011 before Irene hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted July 19, 2023 Share Posted July 19, 2023 0.00” here. 79/73 with some sun now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted July 19, 2023 Share Posted July 19, 2023 1 hour ago, forkyfork said: you guys are so sad this is going to happen lol my body has been acclimated to the heat 95+ wont bother me.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted July 19, 2023 Share Posted July 19, 2023 Maybe 0.05” here with this round but happy to see the south shore get the higher 0.4” type amounts. Slowly getting to normal in the ripped off areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted July 19, 2023 Share Posted July 19, 2023 12 hours ago, Roger Smith said: If the 1936 heat wave happened this year, can you imagine the political response? Or that scorcher at the end of August into September 1953? I'm seeing this warming climate as largely a bump up in overnight temperatures and a very slight increase, if any at all, in daytime readings. The main change is, we don't get those cooler spells with clear and very cool nights as often, and it takes some sort of major anomaly in the upper flow to create one at all. This seems to be the case all over the hemisphere and not just in the eastern U.S., people in the British Isles notice the same pattern, although relatively speaking, they seem to be getting more and more intense heat waves too. I don't think the records show that to be the case in North America. What some call global warming, I call global blanding. The frequency of bland weather patterns is certainly increasing. They tend to have quite warm nights and so-so daytime warmth. Now some believe that severe weather is increasing, I view it more as steady-state. You can cherry pick data either way to show it increasing or decreasing, but on the whole, I don't see obvious trends of increasing severe weather (excluding temperature related severe weather). For both hurricanes and tornados, the biggest outbreaks or events are often well back in the past. Of course one has to factor in improvements in forecasting and warnings, and public awareness. I would not want to mis-represent by throwing in death toll data from past events, not as many people would die today, especially if you removed population increases in the path of these most powerful events. But even so, flooding rainfalls, severe windstorms, tornado and hurricane -- none of these is really on the increase, and in fact you would expect them to decrease slightly if air mass contrast was less intense (as is obviously the case in the warmer climate). I think there are probably more forest fires in recent decades but perhaps a return to a reality which existed before, the anomalous period may have been something like 1950 to 1985 with fewer fires. When you read historical accounts of the 1910-1940 period in western regions, there were numerous references to thick smoky haze from forest fires. It has to be kept in mind that they did not attempt to suppress them back then. On the other hand, there were fewer severe fire seasons around the 1960s and 1970s. This modern era of frequent fires seems to have begun to ramp up in 1988, the year of widespread heat waves and the severe Yellowstone region fires. Some other bad western fire seasons were 1998, 2003, 2009 and 2018. A problem is separating out human caused fires from naturally occurring fires. Some of the human caused fires are deliberate arson, for various reasons including a desire to get work, a mental illness problem (for example, a desire for recognition, either directly as in an arrest, or indirectly as in people seeing the results, a forest on fire), or even a misguided political motive (accelerate the political process by producing the claimed results of global warming -- it happens, court cases prove it). Other human caused fires are accidental, at least to the extent that you can call tossing a butt into a dry forest an accident (to my mind it amounts to arson), or parking a very hot car engine over dry grass (then the person leaves, not realizing they have left behind a slowly spreading ground fire). Unattended campfires in windy weather can be a big problem also. If the 1936 heat wave occurred this year, Bastardi would be downplaying it by saying its not that hot on a per capita basis. Looking at the actual data, July 1936, as a whole, was actually around or slightly below current July normals in most places where people actually lived. And outside of a one week intense heat wave, downright chilly (especially at night) compared to recent Julys. Funny how it was only hot in places where no one lived. I suspect this temperature pattern would not score highly on Bastardi's population density metric. Toronto (downtown), Canada Excluding 7-days from 7/8 to 7/14: 79.6/58.6 Mean: 69.1F Boston, Massachusetts No heat wave to knock out, only a few discrete hot days scattered early-mid month. New York, New York Excluding 7-days from 7/8 to 7/14: 83.4/64.8 Mean: 74.1F Buffalo, New York Excluding 7-days from 7/8 to 7/14: 76.5/61.3 Mean: 68.9F Rochester, New York Excluding 7-days from 7/8 to 7/14: 78.9/59.0 Mean: 68.9F Hartford, Connecticut Excluding 7-days from 7/8 to 7/14: 81.0/60.4 Mean: 70.7F Harrisburg, Pennsylvania Excluding 8 days from 7/8 to 7/15: 83.8/63.9 Mean: 73.8F Philadelphia, Pennsylvania Excluding 7 days from 7/9 to 7/15: 83.4/66.9 Mean: 75.1F Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania Excluding 7 days from 7/8 to 7/14: 82.7/59.0 Mean: 70.3F Williamsport, Pennsylvania Excluding 7 days from 7/8 to 7/14: 85.9/56.9 Mean: 71.4F Erie, Pennsylvania Excluding 7 days from 7/8 to 7/14: 78.8/61.8 Mean: 70.3F Washington, District of Columbia Excluding 8 days from 7/8 to 7/15: 85.3/67.3 Mean: 76.3F Hagerstown, Maryland Excluding 7-days from 7/9 to 7/15: 83.4/59.3 Mean: 71.4F Baltimore, Maryland Excluding 7-days from 7/9 to 7/15: 85.0/67.9 Mean: 76.4F Detroit, Michigan Excluding 7-days from 7/8 to 7/14: 82.6/58.9 Mean: 71.4F Lansing, Michigan Excluding 7-days from 7/8 to 7/14: 81.2/56.2 Mean: 68.7F Alpena, Michigan Excluding 7-days from 7/8 to 7/14: 80.9/48.0 Mean: 64.5F Akron, Ohio Excluding 7-days from 7/8 to 7/14: 84.0/58.0 Mean: 70.9F Toledo, Ohio Excluding 7-days from 7/8 to 7/14: 82.2/61.9 Mean: 72.1F Morgantown, West Virginia Excluding 7-days from 7/9 to 7/15: 85.9/56.5 Mean: 71.2F Elkins, West Virginia Excluding 7-days from 7/9 to 7/15: 80.7/57.3 Mean: 69.0F Clarksburg, West Virginia Excluding 7-days from 7/9 to 7/15: 84.9/59.3 Mean: 72.1F Milwaukee, Wisconsin Excluding 8-days from 7/8 to 7/15: 77.0/63.7 Mean: 70.3F Chicago, Illinois Excluding 8-days from 7/8 to 7/15: 80.9/66.2 Mean: 73.5F 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 19, 2023 Share Posted July 19, 2023 10 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Maybe 0.05” here with this round but happy to see the south shore get the higher 0.4” type amounts. Slowly getting to normal in the ripped off areas. another round possible Friday. I for one am hoping it misses here and gets you all... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 19, 2023 Share Posted July 19, 2023 8 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said: If the 1936 heat wave occurred this year, Bastardi would be downplaying it by saying its not that hot on a per capita basis. Looking at the actual data, July 1936, as a whole, was actually around or slightly below current July normals in most places where people actually lived. And outside of a one week intense heat wave, downright chilly (especially at night) compared to recent Julys. Funny how it was only hot in places where no one lived. I suspect this temperature pattern would not score highly on Bastardi's population density metric. Toronto (downtown), Canada Excluding 7-days from 7/8 to 7/14: 79.6/58.6 Mean: 69.1F Boston, Massachusetts No heat wave to knock out, only a few discrete hot days scattered early-mid month. New York, New York Excluding 7-days from 7/8 to 7/14: 83.4/64.8 Mean: 74.1F Buffalo, New York Excluding 7-days from 7/8 to 7/14: 76.5/61.3 Mean: 68.9F Rochester, New York Excluding 7-days from 7/8 to 7/14: 78.9/59.0 Mean: 68.9F Hartford, Connecticut Excluding 7-days from 7/8 to 7/14: 81.0/60.4 Mean: 70.7F Harrisburg, Pennsylvania Excluding 8 days from 7/8 to 7/15: 83.8/63.9 Mean: 73.8F Philadelphia, Pennsylvania Excluding 7 days from 7/9 to 7/15: 83.4/66.9 Mean: 75.1F Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania Excluding 7 days from 7/8 to 7/14: 82.7/59.0 Mean: 70.3F Williamsport, Pennsylvania Excluding 7 days from 7/8 to 7/14: 85.9/56.9 Mean: 71.4F Erie, Pennsylvania Excluding 7 days from 7/8 to 7/14: 78.8/61.8 Mean: 70.3F Washington, District of Columbia Excluding 8 days from 7/8 to 7/15: 85.3/67.3 Mean: 76.3F Hagerstown, Maryland Excluding 7-days from 7/9 to 7/15: 83.4/59.3 Mean: 71.4F Baltimore, Maryland Excluding 7-days from 7/9 to 7/15: 85.0/67.9 Mean: 76.4F Detroit, Michigan Excluding 7-days from 7/8 to 7/14: 82.6/58.9 Mean: 71.4F Lansing, Michigan Excluding 7-days from 7/8 to 7/14: 81.2/56.2 Mean: 68.7F Alpena, Michigan Excluding 7-days from 7/8 to 7/14: 80.9/48.0 Mean: 64.5F Akron, Ohio Excluding 7-days from 7/8 to 7/14: 84.0/58.0 Mean: 70.9F Toledo, Ohio Excluding 7-days from 7/8 to 7/14: 82.2/61.9 Mean: 72.1F Morgantown, West Virginia Excluding 7-days from 7/9 to 7/15: 85.9/56.5 Mean: 71.2F Elkins, West Virginia Excluding 7-days from 7/9 to 7/15: 80.7/57.3 Mean: 69.0F Clarksburg, West Virginia Excluding 7-days from 7/9 to 7/15: 84.9/59.3 Mean: 72.1F Milwaukee, Wisconsin Excluding 8-days from 7/8 to 7/15: 77.0/63.7 Mean: 70.3F Chicago, Illinois Excluding 8-days from 7/8 to 7/15: 80.9/66.2 Mean: 73.5F we get endless uhi posts whenever newark breaks a record but nobody mentions how we turned the entire great plains into a parking lot in the 30s 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted July 19, 2023 Share Posted July 19, 2023 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: .25 Not bad. Like FPizz I got only a couple hundreths here. Last few days the heavier rain has been going through central Middlesex County and mostly missing the extreme northern part of the County. We move onto Friday. I don't think it looks as impressive as it did a few days ago, but certainly there will be some heavy downpours around. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve392 Posted July 19, 2023 Share Posted July 19, 2023 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: completely waterlogged here-reminds me of August 2011 before Irene hit. Let's hope we don't experience that again. Irene was bad here in nnj and ny state. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted July 19, 2023 Share Posted July 19, 2023 Two points about July (and August) 1936, the heat was definitely more persistent in the central plains than the eastern regions, but that week when the heat spread east was brutally hot and both daytime and overnight high min records were widespread. People were sleeping outdoors all over the affected regions for at least several consecutive nights to avoid heat prostration. No matter what the rest of the month felt like, that week would have prompted a major media and political response (back then it was just media, FDR had enough to do without trying to fix the weather). Also it was a year to year recurring pattern to some extent, every summer 1933 to 1937 had some brutal heat waves. The other point would be that many seem to think we caused the 1930s heat waves by poor agricultural practices in the great plains region. I doubt this is true (while I don't disagree there were poor practices). The atmosphere would have created those severe heat waves anyway, our contribution to it was probably on the order of the last degree possibly. (so 104/77 instead of 105/78 at Toronto for example). In the roundup of how locations fared relative to monthly normal, no normal was shown for Toronto but that monthly value was actually about 2F (or 1 C) above the 1901-30 average and slightly above more recent averages. July 1936 was t27 warmest of 183 years (with five other years, at 22.9 C) but obviously if the period July 7-14 had persisted all month it would have easily been warmest on record, which at this point is 25.5 C (1921) closely followed by 2021 (25.4 C). Those stats are all uncorrected for urban heat island but 1936 (reduced to 22.3) only moves up very slightly to t25 warmest in my estimates. Also it had a similar mean to several other July outcomes in the 1930s. Some of those months had longer hot spells but they were less intense. July 1932 was quite a cool month but all summers from about 1929 to 1941 had significant heat waves at some point, then 1942 had the very heavy rainfalls mid-July that Sacrus mentioned in his daily historical update. These were less extreme in Ontario but did set some daily records there too. Now there's another past weather event that would have been very volatile in today's political environment, 30.6" of rain in six hours! I have seen 6" of rain in six hours in Ontario (in Aug 1976 and from hugo's remnant low in Sep 1989) and it was pouring non-stop, cannot imagine five times as much falling. At NYC, July 1936 was very close to the overall median at t75 warmest out of 154. So relative to Toronto it had a cooler month. That also remains close to the median with u.h.i. adjustment (t75 again). Toronto ranks also improve by one (to t26, t24) in the same data set because a hot July in 1868 is dropped from the direct comparison (NYC began in 1869). The continental influence in this case was considerably stronger. Other summers with large variations in ranks include 1916, 1919, and 1921. But many years have very similar ranks at both locations. Anyone interested in seeing all this data can find it all here: (our climate change forum, and also this link where excel files are posted, they are too large to fit here ... https://www.community.netweather.tv/topic/93113-toronto-180-a-north-american-data-base-of-182-years-now-includes-nyc-1869-2022/page/2/ My feeling is, if 1911 and 1936 could produce multiple consecutive scorchers in the 101-110 range, then there's no reason to suppose that years like 1977, 1988 and 2012 (which you could argue were similar) represent the upper limit of what could be experienced in future years, and after the unprecedented heat dome hit my present location in June 2021, I am certainly well aware that previous upper limits can be not just edged out but pushed aside rather brutally. We had three days here that broke all-time previous records. Even without us heating up the atmosphere, natural variability can do the same and no doubt it will happen, sooner or later, that 1936 will have to step aside (a sobering thought). The whole point of the discussion (to call it a debate would be perhaps over-stating) is that we have not really worked out whether or not our modification of the atmosphere is creating different dynamics or just warming up the old dynamics. For example, the heat dome was basically a 599 dm high with 588 dm thicknesses acting like a magnifying glass over our region. Now the question is, without an advanced human economy present, would that have happened anyway, and stopped 1-2 F deg short without the added ghg, or did we add dm to those disturbing numbers? In 1936 I would imagine the upper dynamics were at least equal to those and probably a bit higher. I have read about nearly equal western heat waves way back in 1898 as well as 1941. So my hunch is, we are not creating these dynamics, we are just adding a bit of heat to them. Perhaps it's a bit of both. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 19, 2023 Share Posted July 19, 2023 We should easily get a string of 95+ days next week if current trends hold. 100+ will be more difficult due to the rains this July vs last 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted July 19, 2023 Share Posted July 19, 2023 37 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: Two points about July (and August) 1936, the heat was definitely more persistent in the central plains than the eastern regions, but that week when the heat spread east was brutally hot and both daytime and overnight high min records were widespread. People were sleeping outdoors all over the affected regions for at least several consecutive nights to avoid heat prostration. No matter what the rest of the month felt like, that week would have prompted a major media and political response (back then it was just media, FDR had enough to do without trying to fix the weather). Also it was a year to year recurring pattern to some extent, every summer 1933 to 1937 had some brutal heat waves. The other point would be that many seem to think we caused the 1930s heat waves by poor agricultural practices in the great plains region. I doubt this is true (while I don't disagree there were poor practices). The atmosphere would have created those severe heat waves anyway, our contribution to it was probably on the order of the last degree possibly. (so 104/77 instead of 105/78 at Toronto for example). In the roundup of how locations fared relative to monthly normal, no normal was shown for Toronto but that monthly value was actually about 2F (or 1 C) above the 1901-30 average and slightly above more recent averages. July 1936 was t27 warmest of 183 years (with five other years, at 22.9 C) but obviously if the period July 7-14 had persisted all month it would have easily been warmest on record, which at this point is 25.5 C (1921) closely followed by 2021 (25.4 C). Those stats are all uncorrected for urban heat island but 1936 (reduced to 22.3) only moves up very slightly to t25 warmest in my estimates. Also it had a similar mean to several other July outcomes in the 1930s. Some of those months had longer hot spells but they were less intense. July 1932 was quite a cool month but all summers from about 1929 to 1941 had significant heat waves at some point, then 1942 had the very heavy rainfalls mid-July that Sacrus mentioned in his daily historical update. These were less extreme in Ontario but did set some daily records there too. Now there's another past weather event that would have been very volatile in today's political environment, 30.6" of rain in six hours! I have seen 6" of rain in six hours in Ontario (in Aug 1976 and from hugo's remnant low in Sep 1989) and it was pouring non-stop, cannot imagine five times as much falling. At NYC, July 1936 was very close to the overall median at t75 warmest out of 154. So relative to Toronto it had a cooler month. That also remains close to the median with u.h.i. adjustment (t75 again). Toronto ranks also improve by one (to t26, t24) in the same data set because a hot July in 1868 is dropped from the direct comparison (NYC began in 1869). The continental influence in this case was considerably stronger. Other summers with large variations in ranks include 1916, 1919, and 1921. But many years have very similar ranks at both locations. Anyone interested in seeing all this data can find it all here: (our climate change forum, and also this link where excel files are posted, they are too large to fit here ... https://www.community.netweather.tv/topic/93113-toronto-180-a-north-american-data-base-of-182-years-now-includes-nyc-1869-2022/page/2/ My feeling is, if 1911 and 1936 could produce multiple consecutive scorchers in the 101-110 range, then there's no reason to suppose that years like 1977, 1988 and 2012 (which you could argue were similar) represent the upper limit of what could be experienced in future years, and after the unprecedented heat dome hit my present location in June 2021, I am certainly well aware that previous upper limits can be not just edged out but pushed aside rather brutally. We had three days here that broke all-time previous records. Even without us heating up the atmosphere, natural variability can do the same and no doubt it will happen, sooner or later, that 1936 will have to step aside (a sobering thought). The whole point of the discussion (to call it a debate would be perhaps over-stating) is that we have not really worked out whether or not our modification of the atmosphere is creating different dynamics or just warming up the old dynamics. For example, the heat dome was basically a 599 dm high with 588 dm thicknesses acting like a magnifying glass over our region. Now the question is, without an advanced human economy present, would that have happened anyway, and stopped 1-2 F deg short without the added ghg, or did we add dm to those disturbing numbers? In 1936 I would imagine the upper dynamics were at least equal to those and probably a bit higher. I have read about nearly equal western heat waves way back in 1898 as well as 1941. So my hunch is, we are not creating these dynamics, we are just adding a bit of heat to them. Perhaps it's a bit of both. First let me say I believe our climate is getting more mild, the facts show it. However, I agree, most times when some extreme weather event happens it always goes back to climate change, like extreme events never happened before. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted July 19, 2023 Share Posted July 19, 2023 28 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: We should easily get a string of 95+ days next week if current trends hold. 100+ will be more difficult due to the rains this July vs last I think it is going to be tough to break 95-100 for the same reason we don’t see 100s in Florida often. The humidity is ridiculously high, which does tend to limit the high temperatures. I am very confused though by people saying this summer is not “hot”. It has been a very warm July statistically. June was cooler than the new normals, but around average from total historic temps. I am always boggled as an environmental scientist when people claim humans have no impact on climate. I always explain to my students, look around. Go back 100 years and you were lucky to see people owning one car per family. Now look at the world. We have gone from 2.5 billion in 1950 to 8 billion today, and everyone uses petroleum. It has 100% improved our living conditions like nobody could have every predicted, but it does come at a cost. As for those against biofuels and renewables, I don’t understand at all. Clean energy is just smart and will be cheaper. Former Southwest CEO Gary Kelly said the main reason they invest in biofuels is because it would be amazing to control their own fuel and not have to hope a war won’t break out. And then he mentioned all the great environmental stats from it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted July 19, 2023 Share Posted July 19, 2023 3 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said: I think it is going to be tough to break 95-100 for the same reason we don’t see 100s in Florida often. The humidity is ridsly high, which does tend to limit the high temperatures. I am very confused though by people saying this summer is not “hot”. It has been a very warm July statistically. June was cooler than the new normals, but around average from total historic temps. I am always boggled as an environmental scientist when people claim humans have no impact on climate. I always explain to my students, look around. Go back 100 years and you were lucky to see people owning one car per family. Now look at the world. We have gone from 2.5 billion in 1950 to 8 billion today, and everyone uses petroleum. It has 100% improved our living conditions like nobody could have every predicted, but it does come at a cost. As for those against biofuels and renewables, I don’t understand at all. Clean energy is just smart and will be cheaper. Former Southwest CEO Gary Kelly said the main reason they invest in biofuels is because it would be amazing to control their own fuel and not have to hope a war won’t break out. And then he mentioned all the great environmental stats from it. I don't know why anyone would be against clean energy. I think what people are saying is we have to keep using oil until we can sustain some kind of life style that people will except, without it. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted July 19, 2023 Share Posted July 19, 2023 9 hours ago, CIK62 said: The next 8 days are averaging 80degs.(72/88) or +2. Month to date is 79.6[+2.3]. Should be 79.7[+2.2] by the 27th. Reached 82 here yesterday. Today: 78-82, wind variable, cloudy, Rain 4pm?, 72 tomorrow AM. 73*(85%RH) here at 7am. 72* at Noon. 79* at 3pm. 82* at 4pm. 83* at 4:30pm(H.I. of 90) 84* at 5pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted July 19, 2023 Share Posted July 19, 2023 51 minutes ago, lee59 said: I don't know why anyone would be against clean energy. I think what people are saying is we have to keep using oil until we can sustain some kind of life style that people will except, without it. Agree. Nobody is giving up air travel, cars, boats, etc. but shockingly there are many against clean energy and renewables. I get it all the time in my field and don’t quite get it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 20, 2023 Share Posted July 20, 2023 Tomorrow will be mainly fair and warm days. Some showers or thundershowers are possible on Friday. Afterward, a fair and dry weekend will follow. An extreme heat event continues to grip the Southwest. Cities such as Las Vegas, Phoenix, and Tucson could see readings continue to rise toward or above their record daily levels over the next few days. Daily records included: Austin: 106° (tied record set in 2022) ***record 10th consecutive 105° day*** Brownsville: 101° (old record: 99°, 1918, 1978 and 2018) Corpus Christi: 100° (old record: 98°, 2000, 2009 and 2011) Del Rio: 107° (tied record set in 1951) El Paso: (old record: 107°, 2022) ***latest 110° reading on record*** Phoenix: 119° (old record: 116°, 1989) Roswell: 112° (old record: 109°, 2022) ***new July record*** Tucson: 112° (old record: 109°, 2009) The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.1°C for the week centered around July 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.97°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer. The probability of an East-based El Niño event has increased. The SOI was -20.38 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.703 today. On July 17 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.458 (RMM). The July 16-adjusted amplitude was 0.287 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 74% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.1° (1.6° above normal). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted July 20, 2023 Share Posted July 20, 2023 Only 81 for a high today, .05 inch of rain. Now 72 feeling better than the last few nights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 20, 2023 Share Posted July 20, 2023 6 hours ago, forkyfork said: we get endless uhi posts whenever newark breaks a record but nobody mentions how we turned the entire great plains into a parking lot in the 30s The Dust Bowl was an early example of humans altering the Great Plains climate through land degradation. We had a big hand in the magnitude of the record heat. Now we are cooling the region through our farming practices. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-16676-w The severe drought of the 1930s Dust Bowl decade coincided with record-breaking summer heatwaves that contributed to the socio-economic and ecological disaster over North America’s Great Plains. It remains unresolved to what extent these exceptional heatwaves, hotter than in historically forced coupled climate model simulations, were forced by sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and exacerbated through human-induced deterioration of land cover. Here we show, using an atmospheric-only model, that anomalously warm North Atlantic SSTs enhance heatwave activity through an association with drier spring conditions resulting from weaker moisture transport. Model devegetation simulations, that represent the wide-spread exposure of bare soil in the 1930s, suggest human activity fueled stronger and more frequent heatwaves through greater evaporative drying in the warmer months. This study highlights the potential for the amplification of naturally occurring extreme events like droughts by vegetation feedbacks to create more extreme heatwaves in a warmer world. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 20, 2023 Share Posted July 20, 2023 7/19 EWR: 84 PHL: 84 TEB: 83 LGA: 82 ACY: 82 New Brnswck: 81 ISP: 81 BLM: 80 NYC: 80 TTN: 80 JFK: 78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 20, 2023 Share Posted July 20, 2023 7/19 pc never connected this post Records Highs: EWR: 100 (2013) the massive ridge hooked with the extreme west based WAR to start the blazing heat. NYC: 102 (1977) LGA: 100 (2013) Lows: EWR: 60 (1962) NYC: 57 (1924) LGA: 62 (2000) Historical: 1886 - A hurricane from the Gulf of Mexico crossed Florida causing great damage from Cedar Keys to Jacksonville. (David Ludlum) 1886: The 1886 Atlanta Hurricane season was a very active year with ten hurricanes, seven of which struck the United States. During the evening hours of July 18th, a category 1 storm made landfall near Homosassa Springs, Florida. Damage was slight as the area was thinly inhabited. The hurricane weakened to tropical storm status south of Gainsville and emerged on the eastern side of Florida, south of Jacksonville during the morning hours of the 19th. This was the fourth hurricane to make landfall in the United States. 1960 - Cow Creek and Greenland Ranch in Death Valley, CA, reported morning lows of 102 degrees. The afternoon high at Greenland Ranch was 124 degrees, and the high at Cow Creek that afternoon was 126 degrees. The coolest low for the entire month for both locations was 82 degrees. (The Weather Channel) 1974 - A severe thunderstorm with winds to 80 mph and up to two inches of rain washed out four to five foot deep sections of roadway in Lake Havasu City, AZ. Three persons in a station wagon died as it was carried 3000 feet down a wash by a ten foot wall of water. (The Weather Channel) 1977 - Thunderstorms produced torrential rains over parts of southwestern Pennsylvania. Some places receive more than twelve inches in a seven hour period. The heavy rains cause flash flooding along streams resulting in widespread severe damage. The cloudburst floods Johnstown with up to ten feet of water resulting in 76 deaths, countless injuries, and 424 million dollars damage. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Fifteen cities in the western and the southeastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date, including Winnemucca, NV, with a reading of 33 degrees. Flagstaff AZ reported a record low of 34 degrees. Afternoon and evening thunderstorms produced severe weather in New York State and New Jersey. High winds and hail two inches in diameter injured two persons and caused considerable damage to crops in the Pine Island area of central New York State. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Thunderstorms in Nebraska produced more than five inches of rain at Red Cloud, including two inches in fifteen minutes. Torrid temperatures continued over California, with record highs of 115 degrees at Red Bluff and 116 degrees at Redding. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Early morning thunderstorms in the Lower Mississippi Valley produced 5.50 inches of rain south of Alexander, AR, in just ninety minutes, and flash flooding which resulted claimed the life of one woman. Thunderstorms in Indiana produced 4.95 inches of rain in twelve hours east of Muncie. Eight cities in the southwestern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date, including Las Vegas, NV, with a reading of 115 degrees, and Phoenix, AZ, with a high of 116 degrees. The low that night at Phoenix of 93 degrees was the warmest of record for that location. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 2005 - A severe heat wave gripped the region during early to mid-July. Las Vegas, NV tied their all-time record high temperature of 117 degrees, equalling the old record set on July 24, 1942. 2006 - The first of two severe thunderstorms hits the St. Louis area, causing the largest power outage in the city's history with over 570,000 people losing electricity. 2006: A derecho impacted a sellout crowd of almost 44,000 St. Louis Cardinals fans, packed into the new Busch Stadium. Winds of about 80 mph whirled around the St. Louis area, sending the fans running for shelter. The winds knocked out power and broke windows out of the press box. Nearly two minutes after the winds began at 100 mph, they stopped, and it started to rain. In all, about 30 people were injured at the stadium. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 20, 2023 Share Posted July 20, 2023 https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted July 20, 2023 Share Posted July 20, 2023 The next 8 days are averaging 81degs.(72/90) or +3. Month to date is 79.4[+2.0]. Should be 79.9[+2.3] by the 28th. Reached 84 here yesterday Today: 83-86, wind ne., increasing clouds, 73 tomorrow AM. 74*(96%RH) here at 7am{ was 73 earlier}. 78* at 9am. 80* at 10am. 81* at 11am. Back to 79* at Noon. 82* at 3pm. 84* at 4pm. 85* at 4:30pm-H.I. is 93. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted July 20, 2023 Share Posted July 20, 2023 Topped out at 80F yesterday. Currently 70F/DP 67/RH 90%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 20, 2023 Share Posted July 20, 2023 73 / 72 and partly sunny. Outside of some widely scattered showers, today looks mainly warm and humid. Mid / upper 80s. Fri (7/21) trough forces front through and next round of more widespread storms during the day. Some strong storms potentially. Sat (7/22) - Tue (7/25) overall drier and near normal before trough lifts or splits with strong heat coming east from the west and the expanding Western Atlantic ridge. Wed (7/26) strong heat into the region to end the month hot to potentially very hot. Storms may still be around with position of edge o the ridge and very humid conditions and trough in and out with more storms at times. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 20, 2023 Author Share Posted July 20, 2023 Looks like an early morning line of storms tomorrow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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