July 2023

[Rtd208]

Picked up 0.91" of rain for the day.

2.86" of rain since Saturday.

High for the day was 87 here.

Current temp 80/DP 72/RH 78%

[qg_omega]

5 hours ago, forkyfork said:

you are such a good luck charm

Nothing impressive there, 90 is the new normal

[Wxoutlooksblog]

35 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Nothing impressive there, 90 is the new normal

Most of the other models today and GEPS and EPS only had a couple of days of real heat before bringing a cold front through around the 29th or 30th and had a trough stretching from the eastern Great Lakes to southeast Canada and the nw Atlantic. But it's still far enough ahead that we do not know for sure whether or not we'll get a heatwave over this time.

WX/PT

 

[WestBabylonWeather]

Provided my ambient is accurate .4 today. Some areas had downpours some had light rain etc etc




.

[doncat]

1.15" here today..high temp of 85° and low of 71° occurred within about an hour of each other.....3.11" last five days.

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will be variably cloudy and warm. Some locations could experience a shower or thunderstorm. Afterward, the remainder of the week and weekend will be mainly dry.

An extreme heat event continues to grip the Southwest. Cities such as Las Vegas, Phoenix, and Tucson could see readings continue to rise toward or above their record daily levels over the next few days.

Today's highlights included:

Austin: 107° (tied record set in 1918 and tied in 1923)
Cotulla: 109° (old record: 107°, 2022)
Del Rio: 108° (old record: 106°, 2018)
El Paso: 109° (old record: 106°, 1980)
Imperial: 117° (tied record set in 2009)
Phoenix: 118° (old record: 115°, 1989) ***Record 19th consecutive 110° or above day***
Roswell: 111° (old record: 107°, 2019) ***Tied July record***
San Angelo: 110° (old record: 107°, 1989 and 2022) ***6th 110° or above day, which doubles the old record of 3 from 1944***
San Antonio: 104° (tied record set in 1918)
Tucson: 112° (old record: 109°, 1989 and 1992) ***Record-tying 10th 110° or above day

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.1°C for the week centered around July 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.97°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer. The probability of an East-based El Niño event has increased.

The SOI was -13.36 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.465 today.

On July 16 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.288 (RMM). The July 15-adjusted amplitude was 0.407 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 76% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.2° (1.7° above normal).

 

[wxallannj]

High 84  Low 71  in Clifton,  only a trace of rain!   Only 2.96"  for July so far!

 

[winterwarlock]

Why the heck is rain now in the forecast for Wednesday 

 

Models truly blow

[JerseyWx]

Another inch here today.  Had some ripping downpours about three different times.

[SACRUS]

7/18

PHL: 91
TTN: 88
ACY: 87
EWR: 86
LGA: 86
TEB: 85
New Brnswck: 84
NYC: 84
JFK: 83
ISP: 83
BLM: 80

[Stormlover74]

2 hours ago, mob1 said:

NAM (both regular and hi res) have another soaker tomorrow for the city (though aerial coverage isn't as extensive as today). 

Nam went south and is dry now tomorrow

[SACRUS]

25 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

Why the heck is rain now in the forecast for Wednesday 

 

Models truly blow

 

Euro 18z has scattered stuff Tue / Wed but more widespread storms Fri as trough pushes front comes through.

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

 

EWR: 104 (2012)
NYC: 101 (1953)
LGA: 101 (2012)


Lows:

 

EWR: 58 (1946) - record lows from 46 for Jul -4, 8 from the 1940s
NYC: 57 (1925)
LGA: 62 (1962)

 

Historical:

 

1889 - A cloudburst in West Virginia along the small creeks in Wirt County, Jackson County and Wood County claimed twenty lives. Rockport, WV, reported nineteen inches of rain in two hours and ten minutes that Thursday evening. Tygart Creek rose 22 feet in one hour, and villages were swept away on Tygart, Slate, Tucker, and Sandy Creeks. (The Weather Channel)

1936 - The all time record high temperature for the state of Kansas was set when a 121-degree high temperature fried Fredonia. (US National Weather Service Wichita)

1942 - A record deluge occurred at Smethport in northern Pennsylvania, with 30.7 inches in just six hours. The downpours and resultant flooding in Pennsylvania were devastating. (David Ludlum)

1986 - One of the most photo-genic tornadoes touched down in the northern suburbs of Minneapolis, MN, during the late afternoon. The very slow moving tornado actually appeared live on the evening news by way of an aerial video taken by the KARE-TV helicopter crew. The tornado, unlike most, was quite the prima donna, staying visible to tens of thousands of persons for thirty minutes. It was moderate in intensity, with winds of 113-157 mph, and caused 650 thousand dollars damage. (Storm Data)

1987 - Cool weather prevailed in the western U.S. Seven cities reported record low temperatures for the date, including Alamosa, CO, with a reading of 38 degrees. The low of 52 degrees at Bakersfield, CA, was a record for July. Up to eight inches of snow covered the Northern Sierra Nevada Range of California from a storm the previous day. During that storm, winds gusting to 52 mph at Slide Mountain, NV, produced a wind chill reading of 20 degrees below zero. Susanville, CA, reached 17 degrees that previous day, Blue Canyon, CA, dipped to a July record of 36 degrees, and the high of 44 degrees at Klamath Falls, OR, smashed their previous record for July by ten degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Sweltering heat continued in California, with record highs of 111 degrees at Redding and 112 degrees at Sacramento. Death Valley, CA, hit 127 degrees. Late afternoon and evening thunderstorms in the Central Plains Region produced baseball size hail at Kimball, NE, wind gusts to 79 mph at Colby, KS, and six inches of rain near Lexington, NE. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather in Oklahoma, northern Texas and Arkansas during the afternoon, and into the night. Thunderstorms produced baseball size hail at Stamford, TX, and wind gusts to 92 mph near Throckmorton, TX. Record heat continued in the southwestern U.S. Phoenix AZ reported a record high of 115 degrees, and a 111 degree reading at Midland, TX, was second only to their all-time record high of 112 degrees established sixteen days earlier. (The National Weather Summary)

[Allsnow]

8 hours ago, BucksCO_PA said:

LOL, torch wind at PHL is a west wind which isn't a flow off the Delaware. Wilmington is several miles off the river which is SE of the airport so again torch winds there aren't coming off the river. For Trenton the river is a fraction of the size & has no affect on the ASOS a mile or two away & over 150' up hill. There's reason why these top line ASOS stations haven't reached 100 degrees in 11 yrs. It's because they're consistent, reliable & represent their surrounding area's very well. Newark represents a patch of rock hard ground immediately adjacent to miles of black runway asphalt & 12 lanes of nonstop traffic. Other locations like Mt. Holly are consistently out of tolerance warm.

Even bigger LOL is you referencing Murrysville in conjunction will Philly, that location is a suburb of Pittsburgh. Most likely another garbage station since Pittsburgh hasn't recorded 100 degrees since 1995. Harrisburg & Williamsport are also locations nowhere near PHL. 

 

It seems odd that ewr has hit 100 several times while these other major stations haven’t done it once in the past 11 years 

[TheClimateChanger]

5 hours ago, TWCCraig said:

Only the middle section of the country has been below normal. 2 different data sets below. NYC is +2.3 for July so far. No 95+ heat yet, but plenty of days near 90 and high dews has made us above normal.

They've also bumped the normal temperatures up so much in the most recent release that it makes comparisons difficult. Look at Toledo, Ohio, it shows up as normal on the map; but if the month ended today, it would be the 24th warmest [out of 151 years] -- decidedly warmer than the long-term average. Prior to 2010, it would have been the 18th warmest [out of 138 years], as six of the warmer Julys have occurred in the 13 year period from 2010 to 2022.

You take this same "normal" month and place it in the 1970s, 1980s, or 1990s and it would suddenly be considered a hot July.

[nycwinter]

16 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

They've also bumped the normal temperatures up so much in the most recent release that it makes comparisons difficult. Look at Toledo, Ohio, it shows up as normal on the map; but if the month ended today, it would be the 24th warmest [out of 151 years] -- decidedly warmer than the long-term average. Prior to 2010, it would have been the 18th warmest [out of 138 years], as six of the warmer Julys have occurred in the 13 year period from 2010 to 2022.

You take this same "normal" month and place it in the 1970s, 1980s, or 1990s and it would suddenly be considered a hot July.

you can say that about temps in the 1870's the 1970's would be considered hot...

[TheClimateChanger]

20 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

you can say that about temps in the 1870's the 1970's would be considered hot...

All I would say is that if a relatively normal, or some would say cool, July today results in mean temperatures similar to 1988 - which was front page, headline news everywhere for its heat and drought - what is going to happen when the conditions that created the drought and heat wave of that year recur in this new era? Makes me wonder if we aren't destined for some absolutely shocking summertime heat waves in the near future.

[nycwinter]

16 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

All I would say is that if a relatively normal, or some would say cool, July today results in mean temperatures similar to 1988 - which was front page, headline news everywhere for its heat and drought - what is going to happen when the conditions that created the drought and heat wave of that year recur in this new era? Makes me wonder if we aren't destined for some absolutely shocking summertime heat waves in the near future.

that the beauty of being mortal  a few of us wont be around when it will be unliveable...

[Roger Smith]

If the 1936 heat wave happened this year, can you imagine the political response? Or that scorcher at the end of August into September 1953? 

I'm seeing this warming climate as largely a bump up in overnight temperatures and a very slight increase, if any at all, in daytime readings. 

The main change is, we don't get those cooler spells with clear and very cool nights as often, and it takes some sort of major anomaly in the upper flow to create one at all. This seems to be the case all over the hemisphere and not just in the eastern U.S., people in the British Isles notice the same pattern, although relatively speaking, they seem to be getting more and more intense heat waves too. I don't think the records show that to be the case in North America. 

What some call global warming, I call global blanding. The frequency of bland weather patterns is certainly increasing. They tend to have quite warm nights and so-so daytime warmth. Now some believe that severe weather is increasing, I view it more as steady-state. You can cherry pick data either way to show it increasing or decreasing, but on the whole, I don't see obvious trends of increasing severe weather (excluding temperature related severe weather). For both hurricanes and tornados, the biggest outbreaks or events are often well back in the past. Of course one has to factor in improvements in forecasting and warnings, and public awareness. I would not want to mis-represent by throwing in death toll data from past events, not as many people would die today, especially if you removed population increases in the path of these most powerful events. But even so, flooding rainfalls, severe windstorms, tornado and hurricane -- none of these is really on the increase, and in fact you would expect them to decrease slightly if air mass contrast was less intense (as is obviously the case in the warmer climate). 

I think there are probably more forest fires in recent decades but perhaps a return to a reality which existed before, the anomalous period may have been something like 1950 to 1985 with fewer fires. When you read historical accounts of the 1910-1940 period in western regions, there were numerous references to thick smoky haze from forest fires. It has to be kept in mind that they did not attempt to suppress them back then. On the other hand, there were fewer severe fire seasons around the 1960s and 1970s. This modern era of frequent fires seems to have begun to ramp up in 1988, the year of widespread heat waves and the severe Yellowstone region fires. Some other bad western fire seasons were 1998, 2003, 2009 and 2018. 

A problem is separating out human caused fires from naturally occurring fires. Some of the human caused fires are deliberate arson, for various reasons including a desire to get work, a mental illness problem (for example, a desire for recognition, either directly as in an arrest, or indirectly as in people seeing the results, a forest on fire), or even a misguided political motive (accelerate the political process by producing the claimed results of global warming -- it happens, court cases prove it). Other human caused fires are accidental, at least to the extent that you can call tossing a butt into a dry forest an accident (to my mind it amounts to arson), or parking a very hot car engine over dry grass (then the person leaves, not realizing they have left behind a slowly spreading ground fire). Unattended campfires in windy weather can be a big problem also. 

 

[TriPol]

Another round of rain and storms on the way

[SnoSki14]

There's some real heat potential to end the month but will it verify.

GFS has a massive CONUS wide 594-600+ ridge that would result in widespread 95+ temps if not 100+ readings over a large chunk of the country including us. 

Combine that with high dews and it's a recipe for disaster 

[dWave]

8 hours ago, winterwarlock said:

Why the heck is rain now in the forecast for Wednesday 

 

Models truly blow

Yeah what is this..I woke up and it's a whole new forecast, or am I getting my days mixed up.

[bluewave]

9 hours ago, Allsnow said:

It seems odd that ewr has hit 100 several times while these other major stations haven’t done it once in the past 11 years 

Downtown Philly has made to 100° numerous times in recent years.  But the airport lags by a few degrees since it’s in the marshy area along the Delaware with slightly cooler breezes on S to SW flow.  Very few westerly flow heat events in recent years which the airport needs for 100° heat.

 

Time Series Summary for Philadelphia Center City Area, PA (ThreadEx) - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Highest Max Temperature	Missing Count
1	2023	94	184
2	2022	99	2
3	2021	100	2
4	2020	99	115
5	2019	100	14
6	2018	101	25
7	2017	98	1
8	2016	99	7
9	2015	97	0
10	2014	96	2
11	2013	99	1
12	2012	101	0
13	2011	104	3
14	2010	103	1

 

Time Series Summary for PHILADELPHIA INTL AP, PA - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Highest Max Temperature	Missing Count
2023	95	166
2022	99	0
2021	97	0
2020	97	0
2019	98	0
2018	98	0
2017	96	0
2016	98	0
2015	96	0
2014	96	0
2013	98	0
2012	101	0
2011	103	0
2010	103	0

The airport has only averaged 36 days reaching 90° since 2010 vs 42 days in the city center.

 

Monthly Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 for PHILADELPHIA INTL AP, PA
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Season
Mean	0	2	6	15	9	3	0	36
2022	0	3	5	19	19	2	0	48
2021	0	3	9	10	15	0	0	37
2020	0	0	5	21	10	0	0	36
2019	0	1	4	18	8	3	1	35
2018	0	1	4	11	10	4	0	30
2017	0	3	6	11	4	2	0	26
2016	0	3	5	16	17	5	0	46
2015	0	1	7	10	12	7	0	37
2014	0	0	3	11	3	2	0	19
2013	0	3	4	12	0	1	0	20
2012	0	2	7	21	8	1	0	39
2011	0	3	5	21	4	0	0	33
2010	0	2	15	19	12	7	0	55

 

Monthly Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 for Philadelphia Center City Area, PA (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Season
Mean	0	3	8	17	12	4	0	42
2022	0	2	6	21	19	2	0	50
2021	1	5	11	17	16	3	0	53
2020	M	M	M	20	13	1	0	34
2019	0	2	6	21	14	5	1	49
2018	0	5	6	14	19	7	0	51
2017	0	3	8	14	10	3	0	38
2016	0	5	7	16	21	4	0	53
2015	0	2	9	10	14	7	0	42
2014	0	1	6	13	4	5	0	29
2013	1	2	6	14	3	1	0	27
2012	0	2	6	21	8	2	0	39
2011	0	3	6	20	4	0	0	33
2010	1	2	16	18	11	5	0	53

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging    80degs.(72/88) or +2.

Month to date is    79.6[+2.3].        Should be    79.7[+2.2] by the 27th.

Reached 82 here yesterday.

Today:   78-82, wind variable, cloudy, Rain 4pm?, 72 tomorrow AM.

73*(85%RH) here at 7am.      72* at Noon.        79* at 3pm.        82* at 4pm.     83* at 4:30pm(H.I. of 90)    84* at 5pm.

[lee59]

Looks like some of the inland areas could see some pleasant nighttime temperatures coming up

[SACRUS]

 

75 / 73 storms and more heavy rain passed through this morning.  Mostly cloudy but should see more breaks by noon.  Warm , humid mid - upper 80s, perhaps 90 in the hot spots.  Thu (7/20) a drier day warm  and still humid with scattered storms mid 80s.  Fri (7/21) front will bring more widespread storms.  Cloudy, and ome more soakers.

 

Sat (7/22) - Tue (7/25) drier times and cool back near normal with less humidity.  Wouldnt rule out some showers or storms on Sun or Tue (7/26).

 

7/25 and beyond the Western ridge is building into the central US and the trough over the northeast is lifting or splitting as the expanding Western Atlantic Ridge builds heights along the east.  The sw flow will bring in hot weather with stronger pieces of the heat into the area to end the month on a very hot note.

 

   

[Allsnow]

.15 this morning 

[winterwx21]

12 hours ago, winterwarlock said:

Why the heck is rain now in the forecast for Wednesday 

 

Models truly blow

I remember looking at the CMC 4 days ago and it showed a significant batch of rain moving through today. I was surprised because all the other models had it dry, but we've certainly seen this before. Sometimes the CMC does a good job picking up on things that other models miss in the medium range. It's an underrated model. 

Looking at radar you can see the bigger batch of steady rain is missing us just to the south, but there will be some scattered showers and downpours up here. 

[psv88]

Mosquitoes out in full force today 

[Stormlover74]

21 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

I remember looking at the CMC 4 days ago and it showed a significant batch of rain moving through today. I was surprised because all the other models had it dry, but we've certainly seen this before. Sometimes the CMC does a good job picking up on things that other models miss in the medium range. It's an underrated model. 

Looking at radar you can see the bigger batch of steady rain is missing us just to the south, but there will be some scattered showers and downpours up here. 

And tomorrow looks dry now like it was originally showing