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July 2023


Stormlover74
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49 minutes ago, Big Jims Videos said:

Just got out after a good swim in Point Pleasant Beach. I can't remember July ocean temps this nice in a long time. Felt like around 78. Seabreeze moved in at 130 pm pushing dry heat out of the way. Amazing perfect summer afternoon now

Yeah it’s been incredible. Normally we may get a few days like this in august, but not July. I think the fact that our winter water temps never get that cold anymore is a big factor. Because it’s not like we have had any real heat. At this rate we will make low 80s at some point in august. 

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The very warm weather will continue through tomorrow. Friday could be briefly cooler due to widespread showers and thunderstorms. Areas that saw flooding from the recent heavy rainfall could be at risk of additional flooding. A warm and humid weekend is likely.

An extreme heat event is now developing in the Southwest. Cities such as Las Vegas, Phoenix, and Tucson could see readings rise toward record daily levels. Las Vegas could challenge is monthly and all-time record. Death Valley could approach or reach 130°, which is the highest temperature ever reliably recorded. The excessive heat could extend across parts of California, Nevada, New Mexico and a large part of Texas.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.0°C for the week centered around July 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.78°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.92°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer. The probability of an East-based El Niño event has increased.

The SOI was +5.23 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.558 today.

On July 10 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.020 (RMM). The July 9-adjusted amplitude was 1.244 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 71% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.2° (1.7° above normal).

 

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3 hours ago, Big Jims Videos said:

Just got out after a good swim in Point Pleasant Beach. I can't remember July ocean temps this nice in a long time. Felt like around 78. Seabreeze moved in at 130 pm pushing dry heat out of the way. Amazing perfect summer afternoon now

I was at Long Beach, LI on Sat and the sports watch I was wearing was saying 78 - 79 water temp. Felt remarkably warmer then a couple weeks before. Once we got into the persistent high humidity stretch with onshore flow they took off. They say saying we are nearing 40 - 50% of the world's ocean in marine heat wave status. FL been setting records with water temps well into the 90s, and 97 around the Keys. I've swam in upper 80s to just around 90, I can't imagine upper 90s water temps.

Pushing 80 here before Aug and without the help of an intense heat wave is impressive.

 

 

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17 minutes ago, dWave said:

I was at Long Beach, LI on Sat and the sports watch I was wearing was saying 78 - 79 water temp. Felt remarkably warmer then a couple weeks before. Once we got into the persistent high humidity stretch with onshore flow they took off. They say saying we are nearing 40 - 50% of the world's ocean in marine heat wave status. FL been setting records with water temps well into the 90s, and 97 around the Keys. I've swam in upper 80s to just around 90, I can't imagine upper 90s water temps.

Pushing 80 here before Aug and without the help of an intense heat wave is impressive.

 

 

The waters to our south are all well above average, and constant southerly/onshore flow helps warm the waters up fast. Jones Beach water temp has been 77-79 degrees  the past two days. That’s insane-the average highest water temp for the year is a month from now and 73-74. July is usually around 70. 

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3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Bring on winter

What winter? The ocean and sea temps are going to be too hot. There's not going to be enough ice at the arctic to bring down significant cold fronts. Say hello to 70 degrees on Christmas.

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7 hours ago, TriPol said:

What winter? The ocean and sea temps are going to be too hot. There's not going to be enough ice at the arctic to bring down significant cold fronts. Say hello to 70 degrees on Christmas.

The arctic has actually had a fairly cool summer.    Agree on water temps though-they have kept us warm last few years...

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7 hours ago, TriPol said:

What winter? The ocean and sea temps are going to be too hot. There's not going to be enough ice at the arctic to bring down significant cold fronts. Say hello to 70 degrees on Christmas.

There is more Arctic sea ice than 9 of the last 12 years and maybe those warming ocean temperatures can combine with some cold air to produce some good nor'easters.

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The next 8 days are averaging     81degs.(74/89) or +3.

Reached 90 briefly at 3:15pm yesterday, before sea breeze cooled it to 85.

Today:  86-90, wind w. to s., variable clouds, 76 tomorrow AM.

76*(83%RH) here at 7am.      80* at 9am.       81*/82* at Noon.      80* at 3pm.     81* at 4pm.      82* at 5pm.      Reached 83* at 7pm.

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17 hours ago, Big Jims Videos said:

Just got out after a good swim in Point Pleasant Beach. I can't remember July ocean temps this nice in a long time. Felt like around 78. Seabreeze moved in at 130 pm pushing dry heat out of the way. Amazing perfect summer afternoon now

I grew up surfing as a teen all summer in SSP. I don’t ever remember water temps in the 70’s in July, that was more an August thing. And I recall like 70-73 max. 78 is stupid warm for 40n Atlantic coast IMO. 

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80 / 71 and cloudy as an area of clouds quickly moves through.  Partly sunny, more humid and hot today.  Low mid 90s and higher humidity will add to the index with isolated daytime and evening storms.  Fri (7/14) humid, hot and more scattered storms later in the day.  Places with enough sun will add a 90.  Sat (7/15) and Sun (7/16) warm, humid with widespread storms possible with slow moving soakers.  More clouds around but any breaks where and when the sun comes out will warm up quickly.  Rain totals could become flood level with these storms, and available moisture >2  - 4 inches in places.

Mon (7/17) and beyond.  Overall warm, humid with blasts of stronger heat from the southwest ridge nearby or skirting the area. Should add a few 90s Mon - Wed but storms chances continue. As the Western Atlantic Ridge expands and west and pulses with the trough into the GL and NE continued storms chances.  Still see a 2-3 day cool towards normal by the 22 with heat building into the west and heading east in the last week of the month.

 

 

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Is it finally going to rain on LI? Upton lowered the POP from 80%, to 60%, but they talk about multiple waves of LP over the next few days. I’m going to assume it’s going to be a much bigger story in the places that just got blasted. 

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Records:

 

Highs:


EWR: 100 (1966) Hot summer continued to roll on that July.
NYC: 101 (1966) more records highs in NY from 1966
LGA: 99 (1966)


Lows:

 

EWR: 57 (1940)
NYC: 54 (1888)
LGA: 58 (1990)

Historical:

 

1895 - A tornado struck Cherry Hill in New Jersey causing fifty thousand dollars damage. It also descended into the Harlem and Woodhaven areas of New York City killing one person, and finally ended as a waterspout in Jamaica Bay. (David Ludlum)

 

1951: Rivers across eastern Kansas crest well above flood stage, causing the most significant destruction from flooding in the Midwestern United States at that time. Five-hundred-thousand people were left homeless, and 24 people died in the disaster. Click HERE for more information from the History Channel.

1975 - Dover, DE, was deluged with 8.50 inches of rain to establish a 24 hour record for the state. (The Weather Channel)

1977 - Lightning struck a key electrical transmission line in Westchester County of southeastern New York State plunging New York City into darkness. (David Ludlum)

1980 - Afternoon highs of 108 degrees at Memphis, TN, 108 degrees at Macon, GA, and 105 degrees at Atlanta, GA, established all-time records for those three cities. The high of 110 degrees at Newington, GA, was just two degrees shy of the state record. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Unseasonably cool weather prevailed across the Midwest. Ten cities reported record low temperatures for the date, including Casper, WY, with a reading of 39 degrees. By way of contrast, record heat was reported in the eastern U.S., with highs of 93 degrees at Burlington, VT, and 101 degrees around Miami, FL. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - There were just three reports of severe weather across the country, and just one record high temperature reported. Thunderstorms brought much needed rains to the Tennessee Valley area, producing nine inches at Senatobia, MS. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - A thunderstorm at Albany, GA, produced 1.40 inches of rain in forty minutes, along with wind gusts to 82 mph. Afternoon highs of 98 degrees at Corpus Christi, TX, 110 degrees at Tucson, AZ, and 114 degrees at Phoenix, AZ, equalled records for the date. Greenwood, MS, reported 55.65 inches of precipitation for the year, twice the amount normally received by mid July. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

 

 

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