HoarfrostHubb Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 2 minutes ago, Chris12WX said: Honestly I think a lot of folks are going to be disappointed with this one. We’ve been tracking so long, folks expect a biggie. But there’s just a few things: airmass, inv trough, phasing, etc. where I don’t blame NWS and TV for being conservative. Yes there is a chance my hood could get 18”. But if forced to put a forecast put, I’d play it safe with 8-12”. That seems like a good call for your area 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 12, 2023 Author Share Posted March 12, 2023 2 minutes ago, Chris12WX said: Honestly I think a lot of folks are going to be disappointed with this one. We’ve been tracking so long, folks expect a biggie. But there’s just a few things: airmass, inv trough, phasing, etc. where I don’t blame NWS and TV for being conservative. Yes there is a chance my hood could get 18”. But if forced to put a forecast put, I’d play it safe with 8-12”. 8 to 12 will act bigger than 12 to 18. That's a tree toppler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 23 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Absolutely I just remember 18 when we pounded during the day. Wow I think I blocked that one out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: If euro is right. I just have this fear of a semi nam solution which would be mundane. Helps to have the EPS locked, but I think being objective and acknowledging the variables is a good thing. I don’t necessarily disagree. Nothing is locked quite yet. But the NAM is the least of the guidance we should be factoring in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 12, 2023 Author Share Posted March 12, 2023 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: There’s potential in his hood for epic blizzard conditions. But there’s a lot of temp issues too to overcome there. Let's hope he can experience 2-3 per hour with 70 mph winds 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: 8 to 12 will act bigger than 12 to 18. That's a tree toppler. And where Chris lives in ASH, ALOT of trees....he gets to use the snow blower a second time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: I don’t necessarily disagree. Nothing is locked quite yet. But the NAM is the least of the guidance we should be factoring in Id prob weight the NAM like 10% right now. It gets more weight once we’re down to about 36h. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 trees around here are going to have a tough time I think 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I don’t necessarily disagree. Nothing is locked quite yet. But the NAM is the least of the guidance we should be factoring in It’s not that. This has power house s/w’s. Will the nrn stream cause this to be more of an arc or moisture while I have boundary layer issues? Will this pivot into my hood and stall? Where does it stall? Where it stalls also dictates temps. I’m not writing it off, but at the same time, there are variables to figure out that Are too uncertain. Definitely has potential like Will said. No disagreement. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Id prob weight the NAM like 10% right now. It gets more weight once we’re down to about 36h. Let’s see what different solution it’ll have here at 12z shortly . You know it won’t be anything like 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris12WX Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: 8 to 12 will act bigger than 12 to 18. That's a tree toppler. I’m not looking forward to it. Went through it in January. December? Can’t remember at this point. 5 minutes ago, 512high said: And where Chris lives in ASH, ALOT of trees....he gets to use the snow blower a second time. As long as the driveway isn’t covered with debris. Lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It’s not that. This has power house s/w’s. Will the nrn stream cause this to be more of an arc or moisture while I have boundary layer issues? Will this pivot into my hood and stall? Where does it stall? Where it stalls also dictates temps. I’m not writing it off, but at the same time, there are variables to figure out that Are too uncertain. Definitely has potential like Will said. No disagreement. Yeah, lot of variables to be ironed out. I get that. The option for a high impact event is on the table though. 6+ of mashed potatoes and wind can cause serious issues 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 36 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Lol bastardi at it again! lol Bastardi. It's similar to 1888 in the way Lena Dunham is "similar" to Heidi Klum. 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Yeah, lot of variables to be ironed out. I get that. The option for a high impact event is on the table though. 6+ of mashed potatoes and wind can cause serious issues For sure. I’m not poo pooing or anything. But I’d feel irresponsible for going balls out right now that’s all. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 8 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: trees around here are going to have a tough time I think We already had a decent pruning in January. Hopefully the weak stuff is already down. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Man bad timing for DST. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Id prob weight the NAM like 10% right now. It gets more weight once we’re down to about 36h. What NAM would you lean towards, 3 or 12k? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 26 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Totals will be lower because we moved the clocks forward an hour. More sun Yes, this is true but at the same time the days are getting longer. More time to accumulate 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 12, 2023 Author Share Posted March 12, 2023 24 minutes ago, zeepowderhunter said: What’s the best place/way to see where potential banding may set up? http://moe.met.fsu.edu/banding/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 12, 2023 Author Share Posted March 12, 2023 Dammit keep forgetting we lost an hour for modeling. Hate it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 I mean, would you agree @ORH_wxman? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zeepowderhunter Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/banding/ Thanks! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
subdude Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 33 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Totals will be lower because we moved the clocks forward an hour. More sun Longer daylight = less snow. lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 9 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: We already had a decent pruning in January. Hopefully the weak stuff is already down. That was the worst I've seen in 11 years here. The ice and then heavy snow on top. 6-10" of glop will be nothing compared to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 ***The map posted is what we call the 50th percentile forecast (meaning most guidance and outputs lead to this outcome). Keep in mind it is also very possible with this storm that the 25th percentile verifies (cut these numbers in half) or the 75th percentile verifies (double these numbers)*** Here's what we captioned it with.. Let's see where we go from here.. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Just now, Whineminster said: That was the worst I've seen in 11 years here. The ice and then heavy snow on top. 6-10" of glop will be nothing compared to that. What about the 6-10” on top of the glop? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I mean, would you agree @ORH_wxman? Agree with what? Caution flags there? Yeah I would. Even here I still have caution flags…I think we’re looking pretty good for warning snows, but there’s a big difference between 6-8” and 18”. I think for places like ORH up to Hubbdave, it’s time to chuck ‘em, but south and east still have more questions to iron out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Agree with what? Caution flags there? Yeah I would. Even here I still have caution flags…I think we’re looking pretty good for warning snows, but there’s a big difference between 6-8” and 18”. I think for places like ORH up to Hubbdave, it’s time to chuck ‘em, but south and east still have more questions to iron out. Yeah pretty much. Dave is locked. Euro and gfs are nice, but not sold on them yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 8 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said: The UKIE made like 3 attempts to go full GFS in the 18 hours prior to it fully consolidating. You can see not just the GFS is struggling with the evolution of this I'm way behind y'all ... back along the pages of antiquity - but, the difference between these other struggles and the GFS ( I suspect pretty strongly) is that the GFS doesn't struggle. If given lesser excuse toward a progressivity, including stressing this thing and pulling it apart like the tidal action on comet Shoemaker-Levy the GFS' physics end up in doing so. I've mentioned that I have/had yet to include much GFS weight in this thing and I still am not. This situation - to me - looks really like it is uniquely exposing the GFS flaw/bias toward progressiveness. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 12, 2023 Author Share Posted March 12, 2023 20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: For sure. I’m not poo pooing or anything. But I’d feel irresponsible for going balls out right now that’s all. Agree its a state of Flux. One lousy nip and it's a flood of sea air. Ray is all in and he put himself out there but it can go to shit in a heart beat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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