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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

I guess the one similarity is getting a more Nino-like coldest winter temperature in February. We also got our biggest snow of the season this month. So more of a backloaded winter than we normally see during a La Niña.

El Niño years with coldest winter readings in February.

 

Monthly Lowest Min Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Dec
Jan
Feb
Season
2022-2023 7 28 26 7
2015-2016 34 11 -1 -1
2014-2015 24 8 2 2
2006-2007 18 9 8 8
1994-1995 19 15 6 6
1986-1987 19 8 4 4
1977-1978 13 12 10 10
1972-1973 19 10 7 7
1957-1958 18 12 3 3

wild how much 2014-15 stands out....we also almost had single digits in March, as it was in the single digits on the last day of February!

 

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1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

We got all the way down to 2 the night before as it was snowing the entire night.  I think it was like a 30:1 ratio snow event

I remember!  Heavy snow early in the morning as it was clearing looked pink!  One of two times I've seen pink snow-- that one was near sunrise and the other time was near sunset back in 2009.  We had around 10-11" here.  40:1 ratios widespread and LGA somehow had 80:1 ratios!

Real midwestern great plains type blizzard conditions.

 

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1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

why is it we no longer get wind advisories or high wind warnings or wind chill advisories or wind chill warnings like we used to?

 

I’m guessing the arctic mass must have been entering my area when I made that post, but winds were whipping at the time (I’d say in the 45mph range) and pretty consistent. I was under the assumption the worst of the winds are for after 5pm (which they certainly may be). I’m in Queens now (and indoors) but I don’t see how this didn’t qualify as a wind advisory at the least. Or, like you said, a wind chill warning. 

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1 minute ago, guinness77 said:

I’m guessing the arctic mass must have been entering my area when I made that post, but winds were whipping at the time (I’d say in the 45mph range) and pretty consistent. I was under the assumption the worst of the winds are for after 5pm (which they certainly may be). I’m in Queens now (and indoors) but I don’t see how this didn’t qualify as a wind advisory at the least. Or, like you said, a wind chill warning. 

-25 is the threshold for wind chill warnings 

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So, BGM is +1 at 2P. I see that ye have a slight snow cover.  My guess per EC consistently +3F low temp CP last several cycles NYC is a low of +3, but because of snow depth at BGM, maybe I can allow for a highest MIN tonight of +6F.  Let's see what happens. I'll acknowledge the bad too cold forecast at 8A tomorrow.  For now I'll say a Low in CP tonight of +3 to +6, coldest of the winter so far.  BUT,  blend of models looks like a low of +10. MOS MET +8, MOS MAV +6.  

Wantage in nw NJ..our lowest on 12/23 was +2. Am going for -1 here tonight.  Temp down to 12.6 here at 250P.

Glad to see I84 is in the mix now for the 2/11-12 time frame, all models. All ensembles at 12z have some small chance of +2" snow depth change just N of I84...so that would mean some ice and marginal temps. This at 228 hours is not promising and certainly for now, nix for LI.  I wish it were better. 

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5 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

I don't think there's a simple explanation. I suspect a combination of factors have contributed. Ongoing marine heatwaves distorted the pattern leading to, among other things, California's excessive precipitation during a La Niña, almost unrelenting push of Pacific air into North America, and tendency for expansive ridging in the western Atlantic to which the earlier blocking linked up. Long-term changes taking place in the Arctic have also led to an increased tendency for "stuck patterns."  Stochastic factors at the synoptic level also contributed.

That unusual volcanic event in Tonga blasted a lot of water vapor into the upper atmosphere. I've read that this, unlike volcanic ash dust veils, could have a warming influence. The location is in the southern tropics but effects could have spread into eastern Asia and the western North Pacific by now. This could also be related to the strange weather patterns we see this winter in North America? Just another part of the overall bad hand we have been dealt. 

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4 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

That unusual volcanic event in Tonga blasted a lot of water vapor into the upper atmosphere. I've read that this, unlike volcanic ash dust veils, could have a warming influence. The location is in the southern tropics but effects could have spread into eastern Asia and the western North Pacific by now. This could also be related to the strange weather patterns we see this winter in North America? Just another part of the overall bad hand we have been dealt. 

There’s an excellent recent paper regarding the aerosol composition of HTHH and touches on atmospheric effects (while contrasting with other known large explosive eruptions). Can be found on Google, I can link it for you if interested in a little bit. 

Interestingly it was believed the sulfur dioxide release was underestimated, but it’s still not particularly close to Pinatubo in that regard. A good explanation for this is the fact that up to 2/3rds of the total eruptive volume of HTHH was ejected into underwater ignimbrites (think massive pyroclastic flows) extending as much as 100Km away from the caldera. So a lot of climate altering gas never made it to the stratosphere, the exception being the enormous flux of water vapor. 
 

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3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

why is it we no longer get wind advisories or high wind warnings or wind chill advisories or wind chill warnings like we used to?

 

There are gale warnings posted for the near shore waters with storm warnings for the offshore waters.  Winds at stations that I follow on WU (including my own) are gusting from 40 - 60 mph along Fire Island currently.  I believe that the gale warnings cover this.

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Speaking of the water vapor from the volcano. The nasa site is nice for checking on that. Looks like it has spread into the NH. While working it's way higher in altitude slowly. Looks like that is still continuing also. I have no idea what occurs due to this? It's clearly much larger than anything else on those charts. 

https://acd-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/qbo/qbo.html#merrau

mls_h2o_qbo_profile_Equator.thumb.png.31957557824ee3ceb0c69789f97b6544.png

mls_h2o_qbo_lat_10hPa.thumb.png.cffa83291e0cc0539efddddf30371210.png

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