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Morning thoughts…

Today will be partly cloudy and seasonably cool. High temperatures will reach the lower and middle 40s in most of the region. Southern New Jersey and southeastern Pennsylvania will see readings top out in the upper 40s and lower 50s. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 44°

Newark: 46°

Philadelphia: 52°

Tomorrow will be unseasonably mild with some showers. 

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 45.3°; 15-Year: 45.6°

Newark: 30-Year: 46.3°; 15-Year: 46.8°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 47.9°; 15-Year: 47.9°

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3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Much of the region experienced its warmest January-February on record. Moreover, had it not been for the short-lived December 23-26 Arctic blast, New York City would have had its warmest winter on record.

image.png.6431f24ef489aa89f58792430dbac417.png

Don can you make a similar chart for all these locations for all of met winter?  Thanks!

 

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4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Don can you make a similar chart for all these locations for all of met winter?  Thanks!

 

New Haven was the only location to set a new record for meteorological winter: 38.9° (old record: 37.5°, 2011-2012). Newark tied its mark from 2001-2002 with a mean temperature of 41.1°.

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  • 2 weeks later...
On 2/6/2023 at 8:19 AM, wdrag said:

Last 10 days of Feb:  I like the trend of the GEFS 500MB... more and more looks to build heights over AK and some 850MB ensemble guidance is showing very cold air for that late Feb period building across sw Canada and possibly a little of that spilling EAST to the Great Lakes and Northeast.    I like this. It's pretty clear to me in the guidance that mid month begins a cooling in the northern USA. I can't make any inferences beyond Feb, cause long ranging is so difficult but I do know we need an AK ridge to pool-build dense cold air in Canada.  If other ensembles trend this way, I'll be thrilled...especially if they hold as we get closer to Feb 20.

Did go back and verify. Last 9 days were 3F cooler in CP than the mid Feb 10 day period.  Not much more I can say about general ensemble value, expect that its positive in a general sense week two-three. 

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A record breaking 8 warmer than normal winters in a row since the 15-16 super El Niño. 
 

NYC

Feb 23…+5.2

Jan 23…+9.8

Dec 22…-0.6

…………..+4.8

 

Feb 22….+1.4

Jan 22….-3.2

Dec 21….+4.7

……………..+1.0

 

Feb 21….-1.7

Jan 21….+1.1

Dec 20…+1.7

…………..+0.4

 

Feb 20…+4.8

Jan 20….+6.5

Dec 19….+0.8

…………….+4.0

 

Feb 19….+0.9

Jan 19….-0.1

Dec 18…+2.6

…………….+1.1

 

Feb 18…+6.7

Jan 18….-0.9

Dec 17…..-2.5

…………….+1.1

 

Feb 17…..+6.3

Jan 17….+5.4

Dec 16….+0.8

…………….+4.2

 

Feb 16….+2.4

Jan 16….+1.9

Dec 15….+13.3

…………….+5.9

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