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2 minutes ago, wdrag said:

 

Not a severe change and not only that but reliance on the GFS as primary guide not likely best solution.  Plus all the guidance I've been looking at including ensembles has suggested to me the following as locally posted to a set of friends early this morning.  3-6" for SC and Poconos northward to OF and Boston area.

Cannot use literal amounts at 72 hours.

GFS hasn't had much for LI/NYC as I've been monitoring it..less than 1".

When the Canadian (warmer model than EC/GFS) dumps it... then I question.  12z Canadian continues south of GFS. I'll await demise when Canadian and EC quit. 

The CMC at hr 66 is colder than the gfs for sure. 

 

 

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_11.png

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6 minutes ago, wdrag said:

 

Not a severe change and not only that but reliance on the GFS as primary guide not likely best solution.  Plus all the guidance I've been looking at including ensembles has suggested to me the following as locally posted to a set of friends early this morning.  3-6" for SC and Poconos northward to OF and Boston area.

Cannot use literal amounts at 72 hours.

GFS hasn't had much for LI/NYC as I've been monitoring it..less than 1".

When the Canadian (warmer model than EC/GFS) dumps it... then I question.  12z Canadian continues south of GFS. I'll await demise when Canadian and EC quit. 

I don’t disagree with you. I think we are on the same page here. The Canadian models on board is a huge flag that this is a real threat for accumulating snow down to NYC. Gfs should be of low consideration right now unless any other models trend to it. 

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6 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

I don’t disagree with you. I think we are on the same page here. The Canadian models on board is a huge flag that this is a real threat for accumulating snow down to NYC. Gfs should be of low consideration right now unless any other models trend to it. 

I've grown bit more conservative in my 60th year attempting these forecasts (probably should have learned that 25 years ago). Forum can say and do whatever, though myself... I think whatever we say needs to be with consideration of whatever results.  Thanks for your update. 

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15 minutes ago, dWave said:

Lots of budding for sure. Some Cherry blossoms have bloomed too. Lasts night low 20s, dropped some though. Any flowers you'd typically see sprouting up in March to early Apr started showing up soon after that brief early Feb artic cold shot. Around the city, this winter has been almost devoid of freezing lows temps outside of 2 short cold shots

Here's lower Manhattan near 1 PP yday.

 

 

Screenshot_20230225_111427_Gallery.jpg

Screenshot_20230225_111503_Gallery.jpg

whats a motion photo? I clicked on it but nothing happened

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1 minute ago, Winterweatherlover said:

The gfs looks on its own planet for next weekend as well. 

I don't think so. Look at all ens qpf. While EPS is still down, it has 1/2" qpf up here and some of that will be snow just w of I95. The 00z EC operational went pretty big snow in VA (check it) from nill all prior cycles. It's tasting the stronger short wave potential.  

 

I expect the GGEM to come on board by the 12z/26 cycle.  If not, then GFS wayyyyy off but I give this time.  

GGEM 12/25z op likes the 3/2 event very strong and have doubts.  If its not strong on 3/2, then this will probably drift to a bigger storm for the ne USA on Fri-Sat.  I have to give this time to wiper back and forth at D6.

 

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9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

whats a motion photo? I clicked on it but nothing happened

Oh..that a feature of the phone but I had to take a screenshot of the pic to make the file size fit here. Thats just on the screenshot it won't work for real here. It would of been a mini video.

I did just get a dusting of snow on grassy surfaces here from a nice band of snow.

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1 minute ago, wdrag said:

I don't think so. Look at all ens qpf. While EPS is still down, it has 1/2" qpf up here and some of that will be snow just w of I95. The 00z EC operational went pretty big snow in VA (check it) from nill all prior cycles. It's tasting the stronger short wave potential.  

 

I expect the GGEM to come on board by the 12z/26 cycle.  If not, then GFS wayyyyy off but I give this time.  

GGEM 12/25z op likes the 3/2 event very strong and have doubts.  If its not strong on 3/2, then this will probably drift to a bigger storm for the ne USA on Fri-Sat.  I have to give this time to wiper back and forth at D6.

 

Thanks for the analysis. 

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1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

Unfortunately we don't have a cold air mass ahead of this. That's a bigger problem than anything

Looking at the run the best dynamics on the Ukie run go into NW NJ  and the HV. The city is only 0.2 qpf through 12z Tue. So some of it lack of cold air but some of it is where does that initial heavy moisture focus. 

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