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Just now, psv88 said:

That is…not a cave

GFS has been lousy for this storm here for days and favored upstate and SNE. Interesting battle between Euro and GFS, we’ll see which is right. It’s just hard for me to see a SWFE being a good outcome for most of us, 95% of them end up going to crap. But maybe this will be the 5% that defies the odds. 

The trend with the blocking is just as important. For us to have a chance we need it to hold on. 

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12 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

In NE PA you have to be roughly north and east of a line from Marshall’s Creek to Mt. Pocono to Wilkes Barre to be seeing steady light snow.  Places to the south and west of there are just mainly cloudy with some flurries in the air.  This lines up fairly well with the earlier projections from the models.

Isn't there supposed to be a southern belt of snow too?


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3 minutes ago, psv88 said:

That is…not a cave


3 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

It had been showing a significant storm with rain NYC/LI and 6+ snow HV to NE. Now the gfs is the only model that looks like that. All the others mostly show a 2-5 inch event everywhere. 

Not a severe change and not only that but reliance on the GFS as primary guide not likely best solution.  Plus all the guidance I've been looking at including ensembles has suggested to me the following as locally posted to a set of friends early this morning.  3-6" for SC and Poconos northward to OF and Boston area.

Cannot use literal amounts at 72 hours.

GFS hasn't had much for LI/NYC as I've been monitoring it..less than 1".

When the Canadian (warmer model than EC/GFS) dumps it... then I question.  12z Canadian continues south of GFS. I'll await demise when Canadian and EC quit. 

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1 hour ago, TugHillMatt said:

Saw this map...do you guys really have "leafout" there in NYC already?


Lots of budding for sure. Some Cherry blossoms have bloomed too. Lasts night low 20s, dropped some though. Any flowers you'd typically see sprouting up in March to early Apr started showing up soon after that brief early Feb artic cold shot. Around the city, this winter has been almost devoid of freezing lows temps outside of 2 short cold shots

Here's lower Manhattan near 1 PP yday.





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