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6 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

I was always less interested in tomorrow than Mon. I think tomorrow is half inch at best, maybe a bit more for extreme southern parts of the subforum but the NAM as we continue to see is terrible and flip flops. 

I've been much more interested in tomorrow because it's the first time all winter that we've had air that's plenty cold for accumulating snow. Monday is still a huge question mark for that, with the borderline airmass. It would be frustrating if it misses south and southern NJ gets a decent snow tomorrow when we finally have cold air in place. 

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9 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

3k is the same with the split around nyc 

Yep. Yesterday I talked about the possibility of our area being the screwzone in the middle. There's been a signal on the models for awhile that one batch of precip misses to the north while another batch misses to the south. But I've been hoping for changes since we finally have cold air in place. Right now it isn't looking great. 

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26 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

I think NAM likely way overdone but ACY getting over an inch before NYC does this winter would really stink. 

Last winter they did much better than NYC too between suppressed storms and being lucky with the late Jan blizzard. I think they ended with 37” and NYC only had 18”? 

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Just now, Winterweatherlover said:

RGEM looks pretty good Mon night or at least as good as we can realistically expect. 

RGEM has us right near the edge. Looks like it's showing a lot of sleet. 

NAM of course it a terrible model, and especially horrible in the long range. But of course we take a peek anyway. It's starting out very warm for this event. Rain even way to the northwest. 

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Just now, winterwx21 said:

RGEM has us right near the edge. Looks like it's showing a lot of sleet. 

NAM of course it a terrible model, and especially horrible in the long range. But of course we take a peek anyway. It's starting out very warm for this event. Rain even way to the northwest. 

Yea it’s a tight gradient admittedly it looks decent Imby but very sharp cutoff at the bottom of the city. 
 

Again though I think the fact it’s on board at all or borderline is maybe a good sign because it hasn’t wanted anytung to do with giving us snow all winter. 

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10 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

RGEM has us right near the edge. Looks like it's showing a lot of sleet. 

NAM of course it a terrible model, and especially horrible in the long range. But of course we take a peek anyway. It's starting out very warm for this event. Rain even way to the northwest. 

NAM is always insanely amped at 84hrs. But shows the range of possibilities. 

RGEM would likely be a sleetfest for northern NYC/north shore and rain on the south shore. Shows temps for me at around 32-33 at the height of the precip and a nasty 750-800mb warm layer and 36-37 on the south shore which would be warm enough for rain.

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Blustery winds are pushing colder air into the region. Farther south, more record warmth occurred today. Daily records included:

Charleston, SC: 86° (old record: 84°, 2022)
Savannah: 86° (tied record set in 2012)
Wilmington, NC: 85° (old record: 81°, 1982)

Wilmington recorded its second consecutive 85° or above reading. The previous earliest such occurrence was March 2-3, 1976. Wilmington also registered its 3rd consecutive 80° or above temperature for the first time in February. The earliest such occurrence was March 1-3, 1976.

The weekend could start off with a fairly sharp cold shot. Some light snow or snow showers are possible tomorrow into early Sunday. Any accumulations will be light. Milder air will rapidly return on Sunday.

The guidance has grown milder for the first week of March. The EPS now suggests readings could wind up somewhat above normal. The latest ECMWF weekly forecast suggests that the second week of March could transition toward a colder regime that could last into the closing week of March.

In terms of snowfall prospects, a reasonable window of opportunity exists during the February 27-March 1 timeframe. EPS ensemble members have recently consolidated around that timeframe with about half of members showing 1" or more in New York City. Central New England and northern New England could see substantial snowfall. Odds favor a light snowfall in New York City and Newark, should it occur.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around February 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.56°C. La Niña conditions fading and they should evolve to neutral conditions during late winter or early spring.

The SOI was +1.49 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.359 today.

On February 22 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.211 (RMM). The February 21-adjusted amplitude was 1.321 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 41.2° (5.3° above normal).

 

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11 minutes ago, vegan_edible said:

gfs is on stupid mode, calling for me in white plains to get 8.9 inches in a 3 hour span on tues while the city gets diddly squat. cant believe that thing 

Yea the snow map on the gfs makes no sense and I wouldn't even consider them. Synoptically though it does look very different from the other models.   

 

Oh and the GFS is still absolutely snow bombing the interior next weekend. 

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11 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

wow I remember both the record highs and record lows well

ps Tony please check that -4 low at NYC from 1983, that can't be right lol

2015 was the coldest I've ever seen it this late.

and this:  How did this thing miss us?!

1989 - A total of thirty-three cities in the eastern U.S. reported new record low temperatures for the date, and an Atlantic coast storm spread heavy snow from Georgia to southern New England. Snowfall totals in New Jersey ranged up to 24 inches in May County, with 19 inches reported at Atlantic City. Totals in North Carolina ranged up to 18 inches in Gates County, and winds along the coast of North Carolina gusted to 70 mph at Duck Pier. Strong winds gusting to 52 mph created blizzard conditions at Chatham MA. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

Believe it was a typo andis 1873. Will confirm in a bit.  

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11 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Yea the snow map on the gfs makes no sense and I wouldn't even consider them. Synoptically though it does look very different from the other models.   

 

Oh and the GFS is still absolutely snow bombing the interior next weekend. 

I am so jaded this winter in terms of possible snowfall, that I am at the "I will believe it when I actually see the snow on the ground" stage.

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1 hour ago, vegan_edible said:

gfs is on stupid mode, calling for me in white plains to get 8.9 inches in a 3 hour span on tues while the city gets diddly squat. cant believe that thing 

In reality that would probably be a ton of sleet. Haven’t looked at the soundings from that run but that’s what I’d do before looking at any snow maps. Models do have a ton of precip falling in a short period of time before a dry slot so maybe the heavy rates can cool the column down. 

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A little look back at the steps the cool season is taking to knocking down negative snow departures to maybe less than 50% of normal by seasons end.  Instead of 25" below normal,  seems to me just 10-20" below normal.  I am sure we are in a come back through at least the first day of spring.  

Can March follow the Jan to Feb temp trend and average less than the previous month? IE Feb a degree cooler than Jan. A normal March  would be just a degree or above Feb. The current attached CPC outlooks are trying to imply a normal or below normal March barring unforeseen large + departures the first and last weeks of the month. 

I am surprised no major weather media - NOAA folks are talking about the mid Feb "start warm" and developing wintry impacts.  Would make a buzz socially as did polar vortex.  I guess it didn't happen in the midst of cold season so impacts not as severe.  

Nevertheless, while I haven't studied the strat warm results, it seems like a long duration change is in progress starting the last week of Feb and per latest EC weeklies recently posted plus the developing tendency for a +PNA and big AK ridge, while the more or less 50/50 low -NAO allows big cold air to resupply southern Canada and in spurts the northern USA. Looks like good sledding all across the northern USA the next few weeks,   including the northeast, presuming we get normal or above normal precip after March 5. 

Adding a bunch of graphics: Two of them verify minor snow events of 2/21, 2/22,  no mPing for the brief sleet-snow midday the 22nd in and near NYC despite ASOS not seeing sleet at 39F,  the guidance leading up to Monday nights oncoming wintry weather (yes mainly rain parts of LI and s of I78) and what I think is a pretty good chance of a larger precip event here Fri-Sat March 3-4 (some of it wintry).  Snowpack will be edging south and allowing colder air to hang closer to NYC.   Witness the snowpack in northern MA now, and the results in tomorrow mornings temps up there.

2/21 and 2/22 cocorahs graphics... minor but slight impacts I84 corridor with minor snow and ice.

WPC D7 prob of 3" of snow-sleet. Not too bad as its shaping up... gave us some support at interest.

How about that Feb 15 CPC graphic and key messages.  Note the heavy snow chance for the northern part of our NYC subforum,

 

Todays 2/24 CPC issuances D8-14 from CPC and their week 3-4... 

Click for clarity, if interested. 

 

1165976419_ScreenShot2023-02-22at6_47_57PM.thumb.png.9c39f0c5b6fdf1132c64911a8debd601.png

 

Screen Shot 2023-02-23 at 2.30.19 PM.png

Screen Shot 2023-02-21 at 9.07.59 AM.png

Screen Shot 2023-02-17 at 3.32.33 PM.png

Screen Shot 2023-02-24 at 7.20.41 PM.png

Screen Shot 2023-02-24 at 7.22.59 PM.png

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