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1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

No it's possible it's just that it'll be a drop in the bucket compared to the record warm weather. 

If the orientation was different than subzero temps would've came further south. 

My location officially (using JFK for numbers) has not gotten below zero since January 1985 (Reagan's second inauguration)...unofficially, I was measuring temps and snowfall in 1993-94 and I'm pretty sure we went below zero here on the south shore in January 1994.

 

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I was definitely down to something like 3-4F at my home location during one of those stronger cold shots in the mid 2010’s. Back then I had an Accurite, but now I have a Tempest set up. Hit 7F in the Dec cold shot.

Curious what I’ll see tonight but I’m not sure I’ll beat my Dec reading as the north to south gradient of the cold is very tight and falls off quick. Probably won’t radiate much tonight with the winds? 

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10 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes it was -3 in NYC and -5 on Long Island.  I saved that map lol

 

I always warn people and see people doing it on twitter posting the Euro/GFS SFC temp maps at like Day 4...in outbreaks like this I always use the 850s and go from there...my guess was 2 for NYC for a few days ago, despite the -27 or -28C 850 I felt the lack of snow cover might result in it being 2-3 degrees warmer than normal with those 850s..also I did not like the idea of a 310-320 win at 10kts late at night.  That means you're probably already into neutral or warm advection and your best 850s have moved east.

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3 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

I was definitely down to something like 3-4F at my home location during one of those stronger cold shots in the mid 2010’s. Back then I had an Accurite, but now I have a Tempest set up. Hit 7F in the Dec cold shot.

Curious what I’ll see tonight but I’m not sure I’ll beat my Dec reading as the north to south gradient of the cold is very tight and falls off quick. Probably won’t radiate much tonight with the winds? 

what was your low in December?

we might tie it-- it was 6 then and might get to 6 now.

I'm interested in seeing the number of single digit arctic outbreak shots per season and then the average per decade.

 

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3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I always warn people and see people doing it on twitter posting the Euro/GFS SFC temp maps at like Day 4...in outbreaks like this I always use the 850s and go from there...my guess was 2 for NYC for a few days ago, despite the -27 or -28C 850 I felt the lack of snow cover might result in it being 2-3 degrees warmer than normal with those 850s..also I did not like the idea of a 310-320 win at 10kts late at night.  That means you're probably already into neutral or warm advection and your best 850s have moved east.

Isn't this also what happened in January 2004?

What were NYC and BOS lowest lows then?  Below zero was predicted but I think we got down to 1 two nights in a row.

at JFK too

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Just now, LibertyBell said:

Isn't this also what happened in January 2004?

What were NYC and BOS max lows then?  Below zero was predicted but I think we got down to 1 two nights in a row.

at JFK too

Yeah the core of the air mass went way too far NE but we also got hurt clearing out that day following the snow, we ended up getting to 17 in NYC I think and most guidance showed 12-15...had we only reached that we'd probably have done it...the 850s were only like -23C I think but with major snow cover across all of NY and areas to our N-NW we undercut what we probably normally would in that setup

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Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

Yeah the core of the air mass went way too far NE but we also got hurt clearing out that day following the snow, we ended up getting to 17 in NYC I think and most guidance showed 12-15...had we only reached that we'd probably have done it...the 850s were only like -23C I think but with major snow cover across all of NY and areas to our N-NW we undercut what we probably normally would in that setup

Did that cold also last longer because I remember a two night peak?

 

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31 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

How much of a difference is there between this arctic shot and the one on VD 2016?  Both occured during mild winters.

 

I guess the one similarity is getting a more Nino-like coldest winter temperature in February. We also got our biggest snow of the season this month. So more of a backloaded winter than we normally see during a La Niña.

El Niño years with coldest winter readings in February.

 

Monthly Lowest Min Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Dec
Jan
Feb
Season
2022-2023 7 28 26 7
2015-2016 34 11 -1 -1
2014-2015 24 8 2 2
2006-2007 18 9 8 8
1994-1995 19 15 6 6
1986-1987 19 8 4 4
1977-1978 13 12 10 10
1972-1973 19 10 7 7
1957-1958 18 12 3 3
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26 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

I know the time to surface expression of a SSW varies, but assuming it happens as some models depict, when is its impact likely to be felt?

Would really be a shame to have it for mid March and beyond, but of course that keeps the trend of luck falling the wrong way this year. 

And yes, no guarantee it even happens just like the previous failed attempt. 

It's still something that's really being figured out in the research sector. General idea currently is that the stronger it is the faster it would happen. But it's variable and sometimes there are no surface effects at all. Other times, it happens very quickly. This a topic that is still being studied. Only recently has a slightly better understanding of this begun to take shape. As far as I'm aware. 

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55 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

My location officially (using JFK for numbers) has not gotten below zero since January 1985 (Reagan's second inauguration)...unofficially, I was measuring temps and snowfall in 1993-94 and I'm pretty sure we went below zero here on the south shore in January 1994.

 

Same day of the 49ers/Dolphins Super Bowl (Marino's only appearance in the big game).  Wonder how many people decided not to venture out to parties and elected to hunker down and watch the game at home because of the cold.

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If the warmer guidance showing little or no snowfall through mid-February verifies, that would put Winter 2022-2023 on a trajectory that has led to much below normal seasonal snowfall (less than 50% of the current seasonal normal figure) for New York City in the 8 prior cases that reached February 14th with less than 4" of snowfall.

image.png.531dd107bd6acd204a272d34d0535fd1.png

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1 hour ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Surface temperature gradient is modeled pretty tight just to our north.  A little nudge in either direction and most of LI could go below zero ... or struggle to get below +10.

why is it so tight? are warmer ocean waters responsible for this (and maybe this is why these airmasses don't make it as far south as they once did?)

 

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1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Yeah January 82 also...core of air mass went down almost into the Gulf so places like Birmingham and Atlanta went below 0, same as 85...we've seen less of that the last 25 years for sure 

Yeah I'm wondering if warming waters have made this much less likely on the coastal plain now.

 

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