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1 minute ago, lee59 said:

Current wind chill on Mt. Washington is -103, breaking the record as the lowest wind chill ever recorded at the summit

 

1 minute ago, lee59 said:

Current wind chill on Mt. Washington is -103, breaking the record as the lowest wind chill ever recorded at the summit

Glad I’m not the only one watching those obs. They are close to all time records. This airmass is extremely cold aloft. It just doesn’t have time or snow pack to effectively get to the surface down here 

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An Arctic air mass now covers the region. Blustery winds will continue to drill cold air into the region for much of the night.

The weekend will start off on a bitterly cold note. Parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England areas will see record cold readings. Despite ample sunshine, the mercury will rise only into the lower to middle 20s across much of the region.  

In southern New England, Boston will likely see its first subzero temperature since January 7, 2018 when the temperature reached -2°. The potential exists for Boston to see a -5° or below temperature. The last time that happened was February 14, 2016 when the thermometer fell to -9°. That would also be the coldest February temperature following a January with a mean temperature of 35° or above (January 2023 had a mean temperature of 37.8°).

Select Record Lows for February 4th:
Boston: -2°, 1886
Bridgeport: 5°, 1955 and 1996
Montreal: -20°, 1963
Mount Washington, NH: -35°, 1963
New Haven: 4°, 1963 and 2011
New York City-JFK: 9°, 1955 nd 1996
New York City-LGA: 10°, 1955, 1963, 1978 and 1996
Portland: -19°, 1971
Providence: -2°, 1918
White Plains: 4°, 1978

Through 6 pm, Mount Washington has had a low temperature of -45°. That crushes the daily record of -32°, which was set in 1963.

As had been the case during the December Arctic shot in a winter of almost unbroken warmth, the current Arctic shot will be a fleeting one. Just a day after the height of the cold, the temperature will rocket toward normal levels and then above normal levels a day later.

The potential exists for temperatures to run above to much above normal through mid-month. Both the CFSv2 and EPS weeklies show much above normal temperatures through the second week of February.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around January 25. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.32°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.70°C. La Niña conditions are beginning to fade and they should evolve to neutral conditions during late winter or early spring.

The SOI was +20.41 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.385 today.

On February 1 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.663 (RMM). The January 31-adjusted amplitude was 1.829 (RMM).

 

 

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33 minutes ago, lee59 said:

There are reports in Maine of trees exploding. Apparently water in the trees is freezing and I guess expanding which is causing trees to snap.

I just learned of cryoseisms, or frost quakes, also happening in Maine. Apparently one can feel and hear the tremors from the rapidly changing temps / cold increase. 

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1 hour ago, kat5hurricane said:

First time I had the winter coat on since December and possibly for the last time this season after tomorrow. It was nice to have a sense of normalcy for 24 hours until the furnace turns back on.

do not believe you it has been plenty cold enough to wear a winter coat almost everyday..

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6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

One of the coldest air masses at 850 mb to enter New England.

 

 

Looked up January 1982 statistics for Central Park, seven days with lows in the single digits, six days with highs under 20 degrees, all from January 10th through the 27th. It was a different world back then.

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Some 6 p.m. temps upstream in eastern Ontario ..

Bancroft -27 C (-17 F)

Ottawa -26 C (-15 F)

Peterborough -23 C (-10 F)

Kingston -23 C (-10 F)

Trenton -22 C (-8 F)

Toronto airport -16 C (3 F)

Record low for Toronto (downtown) for morning of 4th is -29 C (-20 F) set in 1863 before any appreciable urban effect existed (the downtown weather station at that time was in a rural setting on the edge of the much smaller city). A more recent minimum downtown was -7F in 1970. The lowest maximum on today's date was -18 C (0 F) set in 1886. It was -19 C (-3 F) for a maximum on the 4th. There were even colder spells in Feb 1855 and Feb 1895 starting on the 4th but peaking in severity 5th-7th. 

I don't think it can reach -20F nowadays in downtown Toronto, but other stations without records in the 19th century are sure to set records tomorrow morning. 

The lowest temperature at 6 p.m. anywhere in Ontario was -31 C (-24 F) at Moosonee on James Bay and it was also -30 C (-22 F) at Timmins in northeastern Ontario. 

In Quebec the 6 p.m. highlights are -26 C Montreal (-15 F), -29 C (-20 F) Quebec City, and also at Sherbrooke near the NH border. Many locations in central Quebec around -30 to -35 C and coldest is -39 C (-38F) in the subarctic community of Puvirnituq. 

 

 

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7 minutes ago, tmagan said:

Looked up January 1982 statistics for Central Park, seven days with lows in the single digits, six days with highs under 20 degrees, all from January 10th through the 27th. It was a different world back then.

Our Arctic outbreaks have become much shorter since Valentines Day in 2016. Much more limited supply of Arctic air since then. The aerial coverage of the cold is also much smaller. But we can still get short but sharp Arctic shots from time to time.

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According to 18z RGEM the thickness drops to 498 dm from Newburgh to Islip by 06z and NYC is at about 500.

Winds will no doubt slacken considerably towards dawn as the high approaches. Could imagine -10F or lower in Hudson valley and will guess overnight lows of 0 or 1 F at CP and JFK, -3 at EWR, ISP and LGA. No snow cover or those could be -5 F to -8 F. 

Seems unfair to get it this cold without an antecedent snowfall (of any consequence) or apparently a post-cold spell snowfall right away at least. I don't think we've been below -20 C here all winter and we have had a constant snow pack of 20-40 cm or more since early November. 

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6 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

According to 18z RGEM the thickness drops to 498 dm from Newburgh to Islip by 06z and NYC is at about 500.

Winds will no doubt slacken considerably towards dawn as the high approaches. Could imagine -10F or lower in Hudson valley and will guess overnight lows of 0 or 1 F at CP and JFK, -3 at EWR, ISP and LGA. No snow cover or those could be -5 F to -8 F. 

Seems unfair to get it this cold without an antecedent snowfall (of any consequence) or apparently a post-cold spell snowfall right away at least. I don't think we've been below -20 C here all winter and we have had a constant snow pack of 20-40 cm or more since early November. 

Raise those urban temps several degrees. Urban areas require strong CAA to get cold. And event the rural areas require winds lighter then that to maximize radiational cooling. 

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