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"We're gonna need a bigger plow..." Massive, persistent singal now emerges discretely in the models, 20th-23rd

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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George001

George001

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

And even that can change some being out at 180. As you/we said…it’s the nuances. Note will be coming over the next week. 
 

Glad we have something significant to track… details to be determined. 

Yeah if we had that exact look say 48 hours out I’d be looking to the next threat, but getting that western ridge axis to move 200 miles east is very doable 180 hours out. I know for my area we are playing with fire in this setup especially with the latest trends, but we’re tracking a big storm with significant upside of things break right. 

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HoarfrostHubb
HoarfrostHubb

Just for fun…  

WxWatcher007
WxWatcher007

Gather 'round weenies. I don't do this often, but it’s story time with Cousin Donnie.  I knew Winter way back when I was a kid. Winter was kind. Winter always seemed to go above and beyond. Winte

Kitz Craver
Kitz Craver

My dear Mom passed away relatively suddenly from colorectal cancer at the end of last February. Devastated the family, f’d me up pretty good too. Trying to pick up the pieces and feel good again. This

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Kitz Craver

Kitz Craver

Posted
Posted
23 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm so sorry to hear this. Nearly a decade ago now I lost my dad as I was careering towards rock-bottom during my struggle with alcoholism. This place really is a paradox because as much as it can tend to foster unhealthy and neurotic tendencies, it was also one of the very few constants at a time in my life when I struggled to conjure up so much as a modicum of interest in anyone or anything. And it also represented one of the outlets that were so instrumental in my ability to rebuild my life, and channel my addiction into somewhat healthier channels.

Happy holidays...hang in there, and think snow-

Thank you to all for the kind words. I truly appreciate it. Yeah Ray, it’s tough I’m going through my own personal paradox wrt this hobby. As much as I love tracking winter storms, it’s so painful. My mom would always hit me up for storm updates and she loved it as much as me. Man I’m yearning for that phone call or text. She wouldn’t want any of the fam dwelling on her passing, that wasn’t her vibe. So I’ll now track in her honor.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Ya, I used to be that way…but I kind of don’t let it bother me nowhere near as much anymore.  

Luke and I have been porked a lot out west here over the last 8 years too…while out east has really cleaned up. So I know the feeling well.  

I cleaned up in March 2018....tough time since. Two really good events since...Dec 2019 and Feb 1, 2021.

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

Thank you to all for the kind words. I truly appreciate it. Yeah Ray, it’s tough I’m going through my own personal paradox wrt this hobby. As much as I love tracking winter storms, it’s so painful. My mom would always hit me up for storm updates and she loved it as much as me. Man I’m yearning for that phone call or text. She wouldn’t want any of the fam dwelling on her passing, that wasn’t her vibe. So I’ll now track in her honor.

I hear ya…my mom is a snow lover too, and shared my love for it as I was growing up. I get exactly what you’re saying. Hang tough my man. 

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wxsniss

wxsniss

Posted
Posted

I posted this yesterday in response to those rooting for a better phase... the less proficient phase was doing us a favor with the trough axis as depicted... unless we get a GFS solution digging almost to the Gulf, we have risk of a hugger

At least 3 correcting factors we can hope for, and plenty of time for a combination of these to improve outcome:

1) west coast ridge shifts a bit more east

2) our main monster shortwave digs farther southeast similar to depictions yesterday

3) a minor lead shortwave establishes better confluence ahead of our main shortwave, also similar to GFS yesterday... perhaps a less proficient phase but that works in our favor

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mikem81

mikem81

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

EPS clusters. 66% of them have a good look. The others not so much.

 

image.thumb.png.292ff8d3f0508cfd3ac6ebc2871e633e.png

There will be energy near the lakes and the interaction b/w the coastal and the lakes energy will determine strength and track. The OP has that piece phasing and dragging an extremely strong storm inland (looks like number 2 group). Number 3 cluster looks like a true cutter or cold front to me with no coastal. Cluster 1 is a BM track

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Mr. Windcredible!

Mr. Windcredible!

Posted
Posted

Good Lord there's a lot of melts this morning for something 7 days out. I think some of you need to step away from your screens for the weekend and check back in Monday or Tuesday. If things look better by then you'll be refreshed for a few days of non-stop tracking...if it looks like shit, you can take comfort in the fact that you didn't waste your weekend away tracking it. And nobody here will have to listen to your whining. That's a win-win-win.

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Snowcrazed71

Snowcrazed71

Posted
Posted

It's great having these discussions on what could happen next Thursday and Friday.

But again, looking back at the model runs from last night and this morning, it's not like 75% of them are showing a horrible outcome. There are more outcomes in our favor than not. And of course things are going to change over the next several days. Why are some of us saying it's a done deal and it's over. We go through this every single time.

Let's give it some time guys. Let's give it some time.

 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Good to see. That 66% cluster looks strong as well.  Too bad the pope said you suck at forecasting I don’t know if I can believe you. 

That's the model not me :) 

 

My concern given the confluence is a hugger...but I think forecasting it one way or the other isn't the best approach. Hopefully just offshore.

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SJonesWX

SJonesWX

Posted
Posted
52 minutes ago, George001 said:

In all seriousness, I’m feeling pretty good about this upcoming pattern. Next weeks threat there is still a lot of uncertainty about the low location, but the guidance does have a very strong low with loads of QPF. The question is, how much of it will be snow? Even if the low takes a bad track, due to the airmass in place we might be able to get some snow on the front end before the change to rain as the low goes west of us (March 2017 could be a decent analog). A blizzard would be better, but at least we will have more chances afterwards even if this threat doesn’t work out.

we all love blizzards, George. but they are very uncommon in our area. the first one I ever heard of was 1978. the next one? the next one was 1993. 15 years between the 2. I think you set yourself up for disappointment more often than not.

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Snowcrazed71

Snowcrazed71

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

That's the model not me :) 

 

My concern given the confluence is a hugger...but I think forecasting it one way or the other isn't the best approach. Hopefully just offshore.

Now I do wonder, if it is a hugger, we do have a lot more cold air behind the storm that we didn't have with the one today. I'm wondering if that actually could help things a little bit. If the storm strengthens a lot, can really wrap that cold air in. Just a thought

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Sey-Mour Snow

Sey-Mour Snow

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That's the model not me :) 

 

My concern given the confluence is a hugger...but I think forecasting it one way or the other isn't the best approach. Hopefully just offshore.

I know I kid. Wish I still had access to WSI for those clusters lost access from my old job last year when they updated the site.  Also WSI is the first to load data. I agree just a wait and see approach hopefully a track just inside the BM. 

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

Ya, I used to be that way…but I kind of don’t let it bother me nowhere near as much anymore.  

Luke and I have been porked a lot out west here over the last 8 years too…while out east has really cleaned up. So I know the feeling well.  

Yea, me too. It will come eventually. 
 

We’re still in the strike zone for this one so I’m not sweating a subtle nod to the huggie. Plenty of time of iron this out as we get thru the weekend. One time baby!

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