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December 2022 Medium-Long Range Disco


WxUSAF
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3 minutes ago, nj2va said:

I mean, what's the point of having that west-based -NAO?  

Seriously, I'm pondering this too. We have all the right tellies and still can't cash-in? I mean, squashed due to too much of a good thing is even more acceptable than these systems plowing thru blocks and disrupting the good tellies at just the wrong time. On to 0z.

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Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

Seriously, I'm pondering this too. We have all the right tellies and still can't cash-in? I mean, squashed due to too much of a good thing is even more acceptable than these systems plowing thru blocks and disrupting the good tellies at just the wrong time. On to 0z.

Yep, lots can still change either way.  I’m just perplexed by having west based blocking and it’s barreling through - and it’s not some kind of transient, east based block.  Let’s see what 18z Euro shows!

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3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Seriously, I'm pondering this too. We have all the right tellies and still can't cash-in? I mean, squashed due to too much of a good thing is even more acceptable than these systems plowing thru blocks and disrupting the good tellies at just the wrong time. On to 0z.

Yeah things happening at the wrong time ain't climo that's just "it's not meant to be", lol

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1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said:

We need someone to blame for this...who was the most negative?!?!

We can blame the toasty waters of the Gulf of Mexico and off the Southeast Coast the Warm Fence is up from basically Cape Hatteras all points south.  Warmth in the Southwestern Atlantic promotes ridging welcome to La Nina and a new climate. 

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19 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

This is still not in the Euro camp though by any means.  This is a change from the 12z run that would be reasonable at 72-96hr leads, let alone 160.  

yeah, the GFS was more amplified because of the S/W. the synoptic evolution is absolutely nothing like the ECMWF

this run was just typical Day 7 noise, not a step towards the ECMWF

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32 minutes ago, nj2va said:

I mean, what's the point of having that west-based -NAO?  

It's not that simple. This is a big NS vort digging down, and there needs to be some resistance above it to inhibit it from rotating back northward(cutting). Without a vortex under the NAO ridge(a true block), the confluence/convergence is weak and upper heights just build there out in front as the shortwave digs.

eta- anecdotal but a -NAO is probably most effective in a Nino with an active southern stream as primary waves are embedded in that, rather than emanating from the northern stream with a NW to SE angle of approach.

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12 minutes ago, Clueless said:

Awful hobby. 

Cheer Up!!  Historically, this is much more in tune with climatology, especially in December. Along and west of the Blue Ridge usually smiles................  You may be surprised next week, otherwise look forward to January and February.

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