December 2022

[Nibor]

52 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

The next 8 days are averaging   35degs.(31/38) or Normal   {I use the 1960's averages, so reduce by 3.2degs.!     And  congratulations---we are having  a December which would might  be considered Normal  for the 1960's--- at least for part of the month}

We will never get any snow here this month at this rate:       0% before the 23rd.      Has remained constant for days.     EURO has 7" on the 23rd---not the Ens., however.

After some 1st Inning problems, the GFS pitches a Shutout:

Month to date is   41.5[+0.2].        Should be   39.1[+0.1] by the 23rd.

Reached 39 here yesterday.

Today:    Rising to low 40's, wind e.-breezy, rain/mix? starting at 1pm and continuing to tomorrow, 42 tomorrow AM.

37*(70%RH) here at 6am. {was 35* at 1am.}     40* at 9am.

[LoboLeader1]

Alot still to be determined going into next week, but looks potentially to be a very high impact storm.

[MJO812]

Wow monster incoming at 183 on gfs

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Wow monster incoming at 183 on gfs

Holy shit

[David-LI]

WOW  

[Stormlover74]

Coastal crusher on the gfs

[MJO812]

Christmas Eve morning

The waters are in the low 50s

[cleetussnow]

Trough on the GFS sharpened right up and has a coastal look.  There is a neutral tilt down in GA 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

Trough on the GFS sharpened right up and has a coastal look.  There is a neutral tilt down in GA 

Cmc ots for now

[Franklin0529]

She's a beaut clark 

[SnoSki14]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Cmc ots for now

Lots of potential in that time frame. Big PNA spike and west based NAO along with another big -AO dip 

[Rjay]

21 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Coastal crusher on the gfs

Another another great setup a few days later 

[hudsonvalley21]

3 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Another another grest setup a few days later 

Now it’s just seeing run to run the 50-100 mile wobbles that will make some pull out their hair after sitting up for those 00z runs for the next week 

[JonClaw]

7 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

Now it’s just seeing run to run the 50-100 mile wobbles that will make some pull out their hair after sitting up for those 00z runs for the next week 

Throw in a run where both storms disappear for good measure!

[winterwx21]

18 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Cmc ots for now

Which is good to see. We definitely want to see some OTS runs at this point. As bluewave pointed out earlier, NW trends usually happen as events get closer. If most model runs are showing us getting hit perfectly with a big snowstorm at this point, that would increase the odds of this ending up a rain event for the coast like today's storm. We definitely want to see this SE at this point and let it trend NW as it gets closer. It might not work out, but we have big potential here. 

[Yanksfan]

3 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

Now it’s just seeing run to run the 50-100 mile wobbles that will make some pull out their hair after sitting up for those 00z runs for the next week 

Calm down and let’s put things into perspective. We got a long way to go with this one. Can this beast go Benchmark and crush the I-95 area? It has the potential. However at this far out juncture an inland runner to even a missed phase is on the table as well.

 

[WestBabylonWeather]

I’m excited, yes. But am hosting a Xmas eve party. I’m hoping this is just the 23rd 

[brooklynwx99]

the exact result doesn't even matter that much. all that matters is that this is an absolutely classic look

[bluewave]

2 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said:

Calm down and let’s put things into perspective. We got a long way to go with this one. Can this beast go Benchmark and crush the I-95 area? It has the potential. However at this far out juncture an inland runner to even a missed phase is on the table as well.

 

Yeah, the GFS,CMC, and UKMET at 12z are all widely different with the PNA at 144 hrs. The GFS has the classic snowstorm 500 mb look from over a week out. Our big snowstorms at this range are usually suppressed way to the south on the GFS. The CMC is also struggling with the PV and southern stream so it squashes it south. The UKMET digs the PV into the Rockies so it would probably be warmer if it ran out a few more days. So we await the Euro to see what it comes up with next.

 

 

[RU848789]

GFS finally on board, but a day later - and of course, the CMC loses the storm at 12Z - let's see if the Euro still shows a big snowstorm at 12Z.  Still in fantasy land, but I'd rather have models showing a potential major storm 7-8 days out than none at all...

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, North and West said:

Can you interpret for the pions among us? tyvm


.

pions are subatomic particles

you probably meant peons lol

[brooklynwx99]

snowiest GEFS run by far, pretty much doubling 12z yesterday. 4-6" on a mean at this range is very rare

[Volcanic Winter]

It would, if nothing else, be refreshing for the models to lock in a favorable outcome and then never waiver (outside of expected track adjustments, of course). 

[SnoSki14]

12 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

snowiest GEFS run by far, pretty much doubling 12z yesterday. 4-6" on a mean at this range is very rare

Imo that's more significant than an op run 

Op runs will waver a lot. We want ensembles to stay the course 

[bluewave]

30 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

It would, if nothing else, be refreshing for the models to lock in a favorable outcome and then never waiver (outside of expected track adjustments, of course). 

Don’t think it has ever happened with a snowstorm before beyond 7 days. But warmer systems have worked out at day 8-9. Also Hurricane Sandy. But the big signal off all the guidance is some type of high impact storm is possible before the holidays with P-Types and track to be determined later.The really  good ones like Boxing Day were all modeled pretty far offshore at this range. 

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/winter_storm_summaries/event_reviews/2010/December25_27_2010_Blizzard.pdf

Eight days prior to the storm, only a few members were as far south and none west of the observed 500 mb heights as all forecasts indicated the likelihood that the East Coast trough was much broader than observed and farther east, indicating virtually no likelihood of a significant storm moving up along the Atlantic coast. On days 7 and 6, there are more members that come close to the actual pattern, but the majority of ensemble model members continue to point to the higher probability of a storm track to be well east of the East Coast and probabilistic forecasts would have very low odds of a significant storm.

[EasternLI]

[Nibor]

19 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

It would, if nothing else, be refreshing for the models to lock in a favorable outcome and then never waiver (outside of expected track adjustments, of course). 

It would be so much nicer. Sometimes reading posts on here analyzing model tendencies with regards to east coast storms is like interacting with someone who’s into astrology. 

[rclab]

43 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

pions are subatomic particles

you probably meant peons lol

Good afternoon Liberty. Actually N&W May have a point. Stay well, as always …..

[psv88]

59 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

GFS finally on board, but a day later - and of course, the CMC loses the storm at 12Z - let's see if the Euro still shows a big snowstorm at 12Z.  Still in fantasy land, but I'd rather have models showing a potential major storm 7-8 days out than none at all...

Lock her up! I mean in! Lock her in!

[winterwx21]

Euro is early with the timing. It has a low that brushes us with some snow on thursday the 22nd.