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November 2022 OBS/DISC


Baroclinic Zone
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Just now, Spanks45 said:

Long range on the GEFS continues to look questionable....lots of blues showing up from the arctic the whole way down to Cali, can't be good. At least the Greenland blocking continues to hold on...

Early December will have to be salvaged by the NAO/AO I think....PAC going a bit hostile seems to be the trend right now and it was showing up that way too on some longer range stuff before we had a very brief few runs of less hostile PAC.

Both EPS and GEFS do show a -AO during early December so it could keep us in the game for something.

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7 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

Long range on the GEFS continues to look questionable....lots of blues showing up from the arctic the whole way down to Cali, can't be good. At least the Greenland blocking continues to hold on...

I wouldn’t be too worried about long range, when we can’t figure out 7 days from now? It keeps flipping back and forth ftom run to run and we’re 6-7 days out. 

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2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I wouldn’t be too worried about long range, when we can’t figure out 7 days from now? It keeps flipping back and forth ftom run to run and we’re 6-7 days out. 

If the MJO is in phase 7 it sure is alot better than 6, that much we at least know and it does seem unlikely as of now it would be in anything but 7 in early December

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19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Early December will have to be salvaged by the NAO/AO I think....PAC going a bit hostile seems to be the trend right now and it was showing up that way too on some longer range stuff before we had a very brief few runs of less hostile PAC.

Both EPS and GEFS do show a -AO during early December so it could keep us in the game for something.

I don't expect much until like second week of month

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10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't expect much until like second week of month

In terms of anything more than nuisance snow, we rarely cash in during first week of month anyway unless the pattern is quite favorable. Interior elevations are the exception.

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Models are still all over the place, there hasn’t been any consistent trend. The probability of something big here is low because of the time of year, but it’s too early to write the storm off. We are still getting North Atlantic blocking so we can get big snows even if the pac is bad for early December. The mid Atlantic may struggle more.

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2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Aren’t SWFE’s the best for Eastern SNE chances in early December . No East flow just a good thump that requires a cold antecedent airmass

Yes. any BL winds blowing 1° from the direction of the ocean and we toast, typically.  I'd take a SWFE. If I recall wasn't that Nov 18? 

Cape Cod bay is 55° currently. Maybe in another month we'll have a bit more wiggle room..but not much until January down here. 

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13 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Well we've gone from 60's and 70's, with TP hanging out of my shorts last weekend to consistent 30's and 40's - with a couple days in the 50's after TDay possible, before we head back to the 30/40's again. I'd say it's been a change. 

Yes. And quite the change. And that’s all folks were saying. Ginxy for the big win…and called it right on time.  Impressive imo. 

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40 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Yes. any BL winds blowing 1° from the direction of the ocean and we toast, typically.  I'd take a SWFE. If I recall wasn't that Nov 18? 

Cape Cod bay is 55° currently. Maybe in another month we'll have a bit more wiggle room..but not much until January down here. 

Except 12/16/07-dumbfounding 

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Ha... Boston got 30.3 inches in past 48 hours.

https://buffalonews.com/news/local/from-2-feet-boston-hills-to-1-inch-niagara-falls-48-hour-snowfall-totals-show/article_679ad48a-6739-11ed-8ffe-87241de212cc.html

"Here are the 10 towns or villages with the greatest accumulation:

• Blasdell – 48 inches

• Orchard Park – 42.5

• Hamburg – 37

• West Seneca – 36

• Boston – 30.3

• Wales – 26.3

• Eden – 25 

• Alden – 24 

• Angola – 22"

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47 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Nothing at mountain ? What direction or what is missing for the streamers to hit the Spine like they do sometimes . More S’rly angle ?

Yesterday the westerly flow streamers dropped about 5” up high and 2-3” down low.  Today the SW flow is aimed too far north.

We’ve seen snow showers but nothing of note today.

Dumping just north of here.

BAA4FD4E-661F-42FC-81B1-091D1C4BB2D3.gif.8fc8ef791663f9bcf5c509bf234f111a.gif

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