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November 2022 OBS/DISC


Baroclinic Zone
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3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

 

Pope still lost …PERIOD!  Ginxy smoked him. That is not in dispute.   Pope said this change(cold) was not happening, and it has. He lost. 

I thought he was meaning Tgiving and beyond which looks mild to warm and dry . Ninas get us everytime . This one no different.LR models always fail 

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

I thought he was meaning Tgiving and beyond which looks mild to warm and dry . Ninas get us everytime . This one no different.LR models always fail 

No he(Pope) was meaning this current cold weather. A few weeks ago when Ginxy said we had a change coming after the warmth, Pope said no not happening…he was way off. 

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1 minute ago, snowman19 said:


Ok JB emoji23.pngemoji23.png


.

Well Will just said we’ll have to rely on The AO/NAO for some help..so not impossible, so Ant has a point that’s backed up by a wise Meteorologist. So who knows?  
 

My feeling is the Atlantic is a slim Hope if the Pacific is that hostile, but it all comes down to just how hostile the pacific gets? Not too hostile and the Atlantic could certainly help us.  But that remains to be seen. 

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Just now, EastonSN+ said:

Looks to be moving into phase 7 pretty quick. The upcoming unfavorable PAC may be due to the current unfavorable phases.

I know more to weather than just MJO and there is a lag.

 

image.png.54863f8b0b23e0446de9d11413f0cc82.png

No shocker too once again the EC tries killing it back into the circle while the GEFS is blasting it into 8...it seems the last 3-4 years the Euro has been regularly schooled by the GEFS when it shows more amplitude

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23 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

No shocker too once again the EC tries killing it back into the circle while the GEFS is blasting it into 8...it seems the last 3-4 years the Euro has been regularly schooled by the GEFS when it shows more amplitude

Yea here is the EC. Seems to be doing exactly what it did last wave. 

At least the MJO has been predictable. Keeps looping 5678 with 67 being the focus.

Problem is I believe 7 becomes unfavorable in January if I am not mistaken.

image.png.be9b7c79944c4aefdabe5e25f543f286.png

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No shocker too once again the EC tries killing it back into the circle while the GEFS is blasting it into 8...it seems the last 3-4 years the Euro has been regularly schooled by the GEFS when it shows more amplitude

Those charts aren’t accurate and almost always wrong. If you look at the actual forcing (VP) it’s in phase 6 that’s why the PAC goes to garbage


.
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51 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

AO/NAO way overrated. Hostile pacific is no good for us. 

Sometimes. Not always. As usual nuances are important. PAC was kind of crappy in Dec 1995 but we had an excellent NAO block up near Baffin/northern Hudson Bay that really did some magic. Heck, even Dec 2010 the PAC was not very good…lowish-amplitude -WPO with very negative PNA but we had a monster NAO block. December 2003 was another one. Pretty ugly N PAC but we lived off the good Atlantic early that month. 
 

If the PAC is a true death pig in AK, then usually we are screwed regardless. But if it’s just moderately hostile, you can still get away with it if other variables help out. 

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7 minutes ago, snowman19 said:


Those charts aren’t accurate and almost always wrong. If you look at the actual forcing (VP) it’s in phase 6 that’s why the PAC goes to garbage


.

The chart shows it's in 6 now so that seems correct then.

The wave will go through 7 then low 8 same as last one. Will not stop in 6.

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