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November 2022 OBS/DISC


Baroclinic Zone
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51 minutes ago, snowman19 said:


It’s pretty ugly as depicted. The EPO floodgates would be wide open


.

The positive EPO isn’t good, agreed. However there is blocking to prevent storms from cutting to the west. Cold air will be an issue but if the low is strong enough it can create its own cold air. 

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17 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GFS still going with FROPA next Friday. That would be ideal for the ski resorts and specifically the event at Killington next weekend. 
 

 

Given the very good snow making temperatures, in general, they would actually prefer a frontal passage with a mainly dry weekend...  

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55 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I had a serviceable SWFE type second half after a bleh first half. I had a good January.

My message to the energy groups I deal with has been the following:  the cold second half of Nov. would moderate at month's end and early December would see the continuation of the moderating trend, but not a blow torch pattern like some of the most recent Decembers.  While the Pacific will go through an ugly look for a bit during early December, I think some weak to moderate -NAO, or just some higher than normal heights across NAO sector will help keep Northeast moderation during early December in check; moderation yes; extended torch no; at least not on the scale of some recent Decembers.  I think the pattern post from about December 10th onward to trend at least normal with the door opening back up for at least periods of somewhat colder than normal conditions.  Right now, I think hype about December being lost are way off base.  It may not be a December of yore, but second half will be decent, just not historic...  

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2 minutes ago, FXWX said:

My message to the energy groups I deal with has been the following:  the cold second half of Nov. would moderate at month's end and early December would see the continuation of the moderating trend, but not a blow torch pattern like some of the most recent Decembers.  While the Pacific will go through an ugly look for a bit during early December, I think some weak to moderate -NAO, or just some higher than normal heights across NAO sector will help keep Northeast moderation during early December in check; moderation yes; extended torch no; at least not on the scale of some recent Decembers.  I think the pattern post from about December 10th onward to trend at least normal with the door opening back up for at least periods of somewhat colder than normal conditions.  Right now, I think hype about December being lost are way off base.  It may not be a December of yore, but second half will be decent, just not historic...  

December not historic?  Another winter month lost….started with September.

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59 minutes ago, FXWX said:

My message to the energy groups I deal with has been the following:  the cold second half of Nov. would moderate at month's end and early December would see the continuation of the moderating trend, but not a blow torch pattern like some of the most recent Decembers.  While the Pacific will go through an ugly look for a bit during early December, I think some weak to moderate -NAO, or just some higher than normal heights across NAO sector will help keep Northeast moderation during early December in check; moderation yes; extended torch no; at least not on the scale of some recent Decembers.  I think the pattern post from about December 10th onward to trend at least normal with the door opening back up for at least periods of somewhat colder than normal conditions.  Right now, I think hype about December being lost are way off base.  It may not be a December of yore, but second half will be decent, just not historic...  

Completely on the same page.

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26 minutes ago, dendrite said:

In 3 weeks the sunsets start getting later.

Not going to lie, as I get older the sunset time has a direct effect on me.  The morning sunrise doesn't seem to matter as much, despite very early mornings (was in the office at the mountain at 5:15am, up at 4:30am this morning) at times.  But the late day sunlight really gets me going.  Hate early darkness.  I feel like so much of the day is wasted.  Need to make sure the headlamps are charged to be outside after like 5pm.  Pain in the ass.  That should be the middle of the day.

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28F frozen, dense low-depth snow on the ground.  Crusty, high of 37F and dews in the mid-teens keep it from melting too much... but it warmed up.  Everything is icy and crunchy here in town now.

It's still only 11/19.  It isn't time for deep winter.  You get tastes of winter but it isn't even Thanksgiving yet.  It's closer to autumn right now than it isn't.

Mansfield Stake 10" vs. 6" normal. 

Props to @Ginx snewx, it has been a switch flip from record warmth to below normal temperatures the past 4-6 days at most stations.

316411570_10104984720027970_596593948017

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I am so sick of the inconsistency with respect to snowfall measuring.....I had my 31.5" jack tossed in March 2018 after employing the same, exact technique and they took depth measurements, instead. But when it comes to a lake effect circle jerk, they all derobe to the big 22.7" discrepancy between max depth and 6 hourly swipes.

I had a 6.5" gap and it was tossed.

What a joke.

 

Fh8-HctXoAA76QZ.jpg

Fh8-OIQXoAETVHC.jpg

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The change in pattern has been absolutely obscene to be honest.

To truly recognize the change, all one has to do is look at the temperature departures.  What a call by Ginxy.

Take a station like ORH... just ripping off double digit high average departures (daily departures of 15-20+ are nuts)... and then we see sustained negative departures (today also below normal but not shown here).

We have seen a pattern change that has resulted in 20-30 degree changes in the means!  That is remarkable!  Sensibly to the average person, it's a massive change.

Untitled.jpg.fecd51700d07e4aec1cc8eab8295e667.jpg

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45 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I am so sick of the inconsistency with respect to snowfall measuring.....I had my 31.5" jack tossed in March 2018 after employing the same, exact technique and they took depth measurements, instead. But when it comes to a lake effect circle jerk, they all derobe to the big 22.7" discrepancy between max depth and 6 hourly swipes.

I had a 6.5" gap and it was tossed.

What a joke.

 

Fh8-HctXoAA76QZ.jpg

Fh8-OIQXoAETVHC.jpg

The inconsistency is baffling... no reason for it...

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26 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I am a fan of the 6 hourly swipe...but I also have no issue distinguishing between total snowfall and max/current depth.

Right?  They are two totally different metrics. Snowfall is snow that falls from the sky.  It can keep on coming for days.  Snow depth is what that snowfall settles out to be and is the total amount of frozen water on the ground.

One comes from the sky, the other rests on the ground.  Snowfall and snow depth are two different metrics.

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