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November 2022 OBS/DISC


Baroclinic Zone
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27 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Yea here is the EC. Seems to be doing exactly what it did last wave. 

At least the MJO has been predictable. Keeps looping 5678 with 67 being the focus.

Problem is I believe 7 becomes unfavorable in January if I am not mistaken.

image.png.be9b7c79944c4aefdabe5e25f543f286.png

the only problem I see with the day's meme re the Euro is that the Euro verified very well recently wrt that total circuitous curve migration there, spanning the last couple of weeks.  So... past performance doesn't guarantee future accuracy? no - buuut, in this case, having the model's recent performance verification also "fit" the La Nina circulation footprint so well ...doesn't lend to assuming this next wave pulse will do anything very different than destructively decay around that same region prior to moving out of the marine continent.  

Some skill in seeing at least a modeled W pac typhoon migration tends to also precede the MJO if it is going to be successful in doing so.. It's a probably more of a fuzzy correlation, but the tropical W pac has almost zip anvil debris N-E of Guam for a reason. 

It'll be interesting to follow... it's always interesting to test assumptions - part of the science of the thing.

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14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Sometimes. Not always. As usual nuances are important. PAC was kind of crappy in Dec 1995 but we had an excellent NAO block up near Baffin/northern Hudson Bay that really did some magic. Heck, even Dec 2010 the PAC was not very good…lowish-amplitude -WPO with very negative PNA but we had a monster NAO block. December 2003 was another one. Pretty ugly N PAC but we lived off the good Atlantic early that month. 
 

If the PAC is a true death pig in AK, then usually we are screwed regardless. But if it’s just moderately hostile, you can still get away with it if other variables help out. 

Agree. Thank you for the info.

 I did say in a subsequent post, that it will depend on just how hostile it gets?  I hope the NAO/AO can give a us that lil boost? 

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Here’s the end of the EPS run…verbatim it’s not terrible due to NAO/AO but you can see how the PAC has gone more hostile and it’s producing a lot of ridging into the central CONUS 

 

0A752EAE-4EC0-45E2-A7A1-D3E960373969.png

Probably not going to get it done outside of NNE. Hopefully we can get something more favorable moving towards the new year 

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14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Here’s the end of the EPS run…verbatim it’s not terrible due to NAO/AO but you can see how the PAC has gone more hostile and it’s producing a lot of ridging into the central CONUS 

 

0A752EAE-4EC0-45E2-A7A1-D3E960373969.png

I'm not sure how to interpret that personally ... I "think" it may be suggestive of a 'transitory pattern' ?

    - which is oxymoron, because patterns cannot be defined when the system is in a state of change ...but you know what mean lol.  

Anyway, that could be perceived as an emerging +PNA ... There's already a vestige "+PNAP" in that image, though it's crowding E of Chicago for taste... But the Date Line positive anomaly is a huge wild card...If that presses east/proves progressive, this whole look would likely mirror in two days and -PNAP takes over.  I could see that going either way. The trouble in deciding which extrapolation is the overall "flat" construct - we are out there in the 360 hour range... a lot of that is likely just typical chaos means getting more entropic, so yeah.

 

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28 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Temper tantrums over a failed Tday threat lol

I'm not sure there was ever a Tday threat ?    ...I think you mean that period in general - okay:  but... caution that the event of interest is/was 26th... and fair enough to say 26-28th. That's still 9+ days away - we haven't really passed inside of "model climate" predictive skill horizon at that range - things tend to start coalescing ... albeit subtly at about 6.5... 

I think if the western ridge is proven more progressive, we can materialize the present D9 entire evolution more CFS' last two cycle blend.  The trouble ... I don't like that approach just yet, because it's committing to more east coastal implications, while anchoring the western ridge near the Great Basin - that's an interesting choice for a forecast model that actually has "climate" in it's formulated title...  but we'll see. 

I also think that the Canadian canvas is hugely available for modeling corrections... I mean the Euros nebular April looking noodles up there at D10 isn't impossible, but is less fitting climate than even the CFS coastal idea.    

That's a fun solution by the way...  I don't have a lot experience with the CFS...I check for fun and boredom cleansing ... heh, now is one of those times I guess.  But seeing as it's out there at 192 to 228 hours and not out there at 750 hour ( haha),  it is what it is.

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37 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Temper tantrums over a failed Tday threat lol

It’s an annual occurrence. Every year a few posters play some violins over a D9 November threat not materializing. I’d have a little more sympathy if they were at least coming from 1500 feet in the monadnocks or something. But not the SNE coastal plain (or a disgruntled cop in Brooklyn, lol)

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36 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'm not sure how to interpret that personally ... I "think" it may be suggestive of a 'transitory pattern' ?

    - which is oxymoron, because patterns cannot be defined when the system is in a state of change ...but you know what mean lol.  

Anyway, that could be perceived as an emerging +PNA ... There's already a vestige "+PNAP" in that image, though it's crowding E of Chicago for taste... But the Date Line positive anomaly is a huge wild card...If that presses east/proves progressive, this whole look would likely mirror in two days and -PNAP takes over.  I could see that going either way. The trouble in deciding which extrapolation is the overall "flat" construct - we are out there in the 360 hour range... a lot of that is likely just typical chaos means getting more entropic, so yeah.

 

The ridge does look like it’s retrograding a bit when going from d13 to d15. But I agree that time range is often corrupted by chaos of 51 ensemble members. Esp when you aren’t seeing strong anomalies. 
 

We can actually switch it from raw Z anomalies to standard deviation…and when you do that, things look less significant. 
 

 

30CB8D8E-4EDF-48CE-BC10-D026BC8ECE48.png

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We should see a Nina look after the first week of December I think. We are sort of in the doldrums with a lack of a true forcing signal. 
 

I don’t know where some of the torch talk is coming from, but in order to get that you really need a SE ridge. That’s not really shown on guidance at this time. 

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I don’t think it’s been all that boring.  We had record warmth followed by a snap to subnormal in mid November including a storm which produced a net snow gain in much of NNE.  We have a potential qpf threat later this coming week which MAY produce wintry precipitation in parts of NNE.  We have the expected pattern shuffling as we go into December with continuing threats in NNE.  We have the suggestion of deeper winter mid December and beyond.  Yet many of you are qvetchimg.  (Look it up if you don’t know what it means)

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We should see a Nina look after the first week of December I think. We are sort of in the doldrums with a lack of a true forcing signal. 
 
I don’t know where some of the torch talk is coming from, but in order to get that you really need a SE ridge. That’s not really shown on guidance at this time. 

Normal is the new torch lol Some people aren’t happy unless it’s 10+ degrees below normal


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29 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The ridge does look like it’s retrograding a bit when going from d13 to d15. But I agree that time range is often corrupted by chaos of 51 ensemble members. Esp when you aren’t seeing strong anomalies. 
 

We can actually switch it from raw Z anomalies to standard deviation…and when you do that, things look less significant. 
 

 

30CB8D8E-4EDF-48CE-BC10-D026BC8ECE48.png

Stoutly hanging onto a good Atlantic.

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28 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The ridge does look like it’s retrograding a bit when going from d13 to d15. But I agree that time range is often corrupted by chaos of 51 ensemble members. Esp when you aren’t seeing strong anomalies. 
 

We can actually switch it from raw Z anomalies to standard deviation…and when you do that, things look less significant. 
 

 

30CB8D8E-4EDF-48CE-BC10-D026BC8ECE48.png

almost looks like a steady stream of clippers running down that ridge in the midwest, maybe the ridging up north can slow one of those down just a bit and give us something more than a couple inches?

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4 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I don’t think it’s been all that boring.  We had record warmth followed by a snap to subnormal in mid November including a storm which produced a net snow gain in much of NNE.  We have a potential qpf threat later this coming week which MAY produce wintry precipitation in parts of NNE.  We have the expected pattern shuffling as we go into December with continuing threats in NNE.  We have the suggestion of deeper winter mid December and beyond.  Yet many of you are qvetchimg.  (Look it up if you don’t know what it means)

I think it’s been the overall tenor that people are mentioning. I think it’s been pretty boring, but we’ve been spoiled by some fun falls. The warm weather was nice.

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2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Some of them sucked.  I remember thinking I discovered a correlation when I was 12 years old that a hot summer led to a warm winter and vice versa based was n a few years of that occurring anecdotally.

Yeah a few were duds.

It is funny though that when I was a kid in the 80s, all I heard was we don’t get Winters like we used to. And then I actually got to see the data and realized that just wasn’t some made up fabrication lol.

Then the 90s happened. :) 

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3 hours ago, snowman19 said:


Ok JB emoji23.pngemoji23.png


.

Clown all you want but he’s right. All signs point to a negative NAO in December. Missing out on a low probability to begin with late November storm doesn’t change anything. A lot of times the models are too quick with the pattern change and it looks like this is one of those times. Delayed but not denied with the -NAO.

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