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November 2022 OBS/DISC

Baroclinic Zone

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4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Meanwhile Twitter meteorologists are saying a really cold and snowy December coming. 

It certainly could be cold and snowy....but we're just saying that the beginning of the month looks like it's going to be milder....it's been in the cards for a while to varying degrees. A few recent runs had the relaxation almost disappearing but it's come back on the last run or two.

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There’s definitely troughing amplifying over east continental mid latitudes approaching the holiday weekend in both ensemble families. In fact the EPS shows a fairly robust + PNAP flow structure (as does the GEFs) pulsing in and out of existence thru that weekend.  And given that’s going to be a transitional scenario… the models are not likely seeing enough of the “real” structures through the fog of uncertainty there.   They have to get the pacific to North American interval correct because how the date line to California flow situates more precisely being accurate, that goes along way in determining the amp downstream over Chicago to Boston   

 The operational runs, vacillating between a blown up ravioli or more stem wound low going to Detroit… all those solutions are within the envelope of possibilities associated with what the ensembles still canvas. Something should be there unless the PNAP evolution mentioned above doesn’t occur or pancaked.

 I also see things in the basal flow foot that are negative interference.  Unless those modulate (which there is still time ) we may not be leaning toward a very deep, cold coastal low. At this  time it looks like this should correct towards a flatter open wave during that period… That opens the opportunity for something more narrow in latitude …maybe along the lines of a New Jersey model low. Subject to change.  

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