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November 2022 OBS/DISC


Baroclinic Zone
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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

So you don’t see any snow tomorrow? 
 

Well to be fair when I posted last week that I was expecting 1-3” Tuesday night this week you also didn’t see that . 
 

Instead you mention OES rain showers lol

We all saw that. But bias correction is more like C-1"

 

Did I say no snow? 

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I mean from a pure synoptic standpoint, it doesn't get more classic than that look....you have the confluence to our north from the 50/50 low...split flow over central Canada and a very powerful cutoff shortwave in the OH valley with a western ridge to give it a little room to dig....too bad it's 8-9 days out

 

image.thumb.png.e8776e5647ce5ccef398da4283d635e4.png

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Seems like the post-Thanksgiving potential may be tied into exactly what happens within this area of the Pacific. The GFS has a pretty significant low pressure develop and move into the GoA. Quite a bit of latent heat release ahead of it really works to build the PNA out ahead of it. Vastly different then the Euro. I may not be 100% correct on this, but it seems like the GFS has been overestimating the strength on some of these lows in the medium-range going into the GoA. 

image.png.cce74557f12943b767ccbb16069e5677.png

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21 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I mean from a pure synoptic standpoint, it doesn't get more classic than that look....you have the confluence to our north from the 50/50 low...split flow over central Canada and a very powerful cutoff shortwave in the OH valley with a western ridge to give it a little room to dig....too bad it's 8-9 days out

 

image.thumb.png.e8776e5647ce5ccef398da4283d635e4.png

Ya, but ya gotta start somewhere when a big one is a possibility, so we start 8 days out. I’ll take 8 days out with that look any day, over 70-75 8 days out this time of year. 

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GFS with quite the stormy look after Thanksgiving, even after the big weekend storm. Cold air is over us or nearby throughout the run. Could be quite the stretch, if of course the GFS has a clue. One thing has been for any warmup showing up in the 10-15 day period, has kind of disappeared as we have gotten inside of 10 days and not the other way around. Again, just a grain of salt is taken, especially this early in the season...

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11 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Yup , it’s great to see. Prob 25% shot we see advisory snows 

For late November 8 days out thats really good, though for my area it’s probably more like 15%. A scenario where I rain and West of the river gets buried with a foot is very realistic. The mild Atlantic Ocean often screws us closer to the coast in these early season events, even with a perfect setup. The fact that we even have something to track this early shows how good the pattern is.

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4 minutes ago, George001 said:

For late November 8 days out thats really good, though for my area it’s probably more like 15%. A scenario where I rain and West of the river gets buried with a foot is very realistic. The mild Atlantic Ocean often screws us closer to the coast in these early season events, even with a perfect setup. The fact that we even have something to track this early shows how good the pattern is.

Ya I think an exceptionally placed high becomes very important in a early season coastal the closer toward the eastern part of southern New England you are 

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7 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Ya I think an exceptionally placed high becomes very important in a early season coastal the closer toward the eastern part of southern New England you are 

It's almost impossible to get advisory snows along the coast in SNE during November without a good high placement. I had a thread on this back on eastern that analyzed all the advisory events (or better) for BOS in November and I think every single one had a good high in place except maybe one which was a ULL/cutoff that changed to snow near the end and dropped like 3 inches. Warning snows are even harder.

Even for a place like ORH at 1000 feet in the interior, it is not easy to get big dog snows in November. In fact, in 130 years of records, ORH has exactly 3 snow events of double digits in the month of November....Nov 26-27, 1898, Nov 25, 1971, and Nov 10-12, 1987. There's been a fair number of warning events, but most of them are in the 6-8" range. Most recently 8.2" on Nov 15-16, 2018.

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11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It's almost impossible to get advisory snows along the coast in SNE during November without a good high placement. I had a thread on this back on eastern that analyzed all the advisory events (or better) for BOS in November and I think every single one had a good high in place except maybe one which was a ULL/cutoff that changed to snow near the end and dropped like 3 inches. Warning snows are even harder.

Even for a place like ORH at 1000 feet in the interior, it is not easy to get big dog snows in November. In fact, in 130 years of records, ORH has exactly 3 snow events of double digits in the month of November....Nov 26-27, 1898, Nov 25, 1971, and Nov 10-12, 1987. There's been a fair number of warning events, but most of them are in the 6-8" range. Most recently 8.2" on Nov 15-16, 2018.

It’s hard for me to believe that Orh has only 3 “double digit events”In Novie at 1k ,  but it just shows how rare they are . However I felt we are “due” for a biggie in November given how prolific the snow  storms have been the last 30 years 
 

I wonder how many the E slope of Berks have had  

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