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November 2022


Stormlover74
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1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

An early guess but think we'll have to wait til January for any meaningful snows. 

The Pacific doesn't wanna play ball. I also don't like the MJO curling back towards phase 6. 

 

Even if it gets back to 6 it'll probably be January 1 by the time it happens...it looks likely we will be in 7 or 8 and probably nothing for awhile before any 6 happens again

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38 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, it will be interesting to see how things turn out. Models have split La Niña forcing in in early December north of Australia and in South America. We would probably want the La Niña Aleutians ridge to push eastward in Mid-December to relax the Western Trough. Just a little ridging into the West can make a big difference if we can hold the -NAO.

 

BEA39C89-5571-4CAB-9460-8C7C82E68FBC.thumb.png.6f549e3f7759f79ee12b1ba0b647324b.png

110B36A4-1CC2-458B-9693-122B5BC4D71F.thumb.png.c4193965a01b47084a1be71e3a834e32.png

C3CCA8C7-9264-4273-82A3-6EEA6BCEC43F.thumb.png.64ad48f4d0528eb5cb23d2072b90cf08.png


 

 

My once concern would be the ensemble mean over smoothing things this far out. When in reality the -pna is worst and -nao is weaker as we get closer 

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, it will be interesting to see how things turn out. Models have split La Niña forcing in in early December north of Australia and in South America. We would probably want the La Niña Aleutians ridge to push eastward in Mid-December to relax the Western Trough. Just a little ridging into the West can make a big difference if we can hold the -NAO.

 

BEA39C89-5571-4CAB-9460-8C7C82E68FBC.thumb.png.6f549e3f7759f79ee12b1ba0b647324b.png

110B36A4-1CC2-458B-9693-122B5BC4D71F.thumb.png.c4193965a01b47084a1be71e3a834e32.png

C3CCA8C7-9264-4273-82A3-6EEA6BCEC43F.thumb.png.64ad48f4d0528eb5cb23d2072b90cf08.png


 

 

Would love to see all that energy eject from the SW and spike the PNA behind it. The EPO is trying to kick but with a 3rd year LA Nina yet again, it appears the spacing is unfavorably modeled at this point.

 

PAC problems persist through the first week of Dec IMO. With that said, it's a pretty nice gradient pattern.

 

image.thumb.png.b6314be0eba09c07717ba07dfb05379d.png

That would certainly produce chances for New England.

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31 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

 

 

I agree with John.

 

We must wait until the second week of Dec to see a big shift. It is showing up on ensembles with the SW trough muting in response to the PV being shunted into SE Canada. I have my eye on a major archambault style event the second week of Dec. A true wave breaking event based on recent ensemble guidance.

Just hang tight folks, there are Legitimate signs of a PAC reshuffle being seen, something that has only been teased the past few winters but without any substance.

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2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We would need the Alaska to Greenland ridge bridge to work out during Mid-December to have a shot at snowfall here. Some hints of that at the end of the GEFS run. Enough of a Greenland retrogression could allow the all important Rockies height rises to occur. 
 

F21BC1FB-5380-478D-BC31-578096A662D7.thumb.png.3cedfaa8d4a1e1c80f7303d87438eaa4.pngDB253A51-EB68-48A7-AB0D-9AE3A060582B.thumb.png.2c774268ec7423699602dc81653eeaf9.png

 

IF, and it is a BIG IF this far out,  that over the top ridge bridge works out then we could see winter weather of note.  I'll add that it is the GFS and it is WAY out in time.  If this vanishes or keeps getting pushed out in time, i.e. it is always two weeks away then it is not likely to evolve.  Right now my expectations are muted.

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27 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said:

I agree with John.

 

We must wait until the second week of Dec to see a big shift. It is showing up on ensembles with the SW trough muting in response to the PV being shunted into SE Canada. I have my eye on a major archambault style event the second week of Dec. A true wave breaking event based on recent ensemble guidance.

Just hang tight folks, there are Legitimate signs of a PAC reshuffle being seen, something that has only been teased the past few winters but without any substance.

I would agree with you and John that we will likely need to wait until mid-December to see snow chances. However, what I don't like heading into the winter is the persistent convection in MJO 5-7(which aren't the ideal phases for EC snow chances). You can see it on the OLR maps and the Velocity Potential time series which I'll attach here as a link: (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ir_anim_monthly.shtml#:~:text=Velocity potential anomalies are proportional,to be enhanced (suppressed).)

 

image.thumb.png.ede2df4c33661dd33035e291e05d2fd4.png

 

With the Pacific modeled in the long range, it by itself will not produce wintry weather. However, the high latitude blocking and potential for a ridge bridge in the long range is encouraging, and will be necessary, if we don't push the Aleutians ridge into the PNA region.

 

 

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Milder air moved back into the region today. High temperatures rose into the lower 50s in many areas including:

Atlantic City: 55°
Islip: 51°
New York City: 51°
Newark: 53°
Philadelphia: 54°

Tomorrow will see temperatures again top out in the 50s. The weekend could see some rainfall, along with continued mild readings. Overall, temperatures will generally be near to above normal through the remainder of November.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around November 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.62°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the winter.

The SOI was -6.62 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.154 today.

On November 20 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.105 (RMM). The November 19-adjusted amplitude was 0.995 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 91% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 49.9° (1.9° above normal).

 

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15 minutes ago, wdrag said:

In the meantime: NWS Blend of models into Dec 2 not showing much, as per the NAO discussions above.

Screen Shot 2022-11-22 at 7.10.09 PM.png

Screen Shot 2022-11-22 at 7.10.50 PM.png

Yup! Thanks for posting this. Looks like a clear reflection of all the energy diving into the SW in the near to mid range.

What are your thoughts as we move into the second week of Dec? 

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