donsutherland1 Posted November 23, 2022 Share Posted November 23, 2022 The latest teleconnections forecast suggests that the first 10 days of December could see an EPO-/AO-/PNA- pattern. During the December 1-10, 1990-2021 period, there were two major clusters of 500 mb outcomes that accounted for 70% of all such cases. The November 22, 2022 12z run of the GEFS suggests an outcome similar to Cluster 1 during the Day 10-14 period with the cold anomalies somewhat farther to the west than shown on the composite. What's noteworthy is that in both of the most common clusters of outcomes, there was expansive cold in Canada and parts of North America. Should such cold be present, there could be some potential for snowfall during the first half of December as the cold possibly tries to press eastward. All of the cases in Cluster 1 saw one or more snowfalls during the first half of December. In sum, there's some potential for wintry weather in the extended range. Of course, the forecast state of the teleconnections is subject to uncertainty at such extended timeframes. 6 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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