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November 2022


Stormlover74
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2 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

In theory, this approach is not the only possible answer, although it is of course one possible answer (to the question, how could we improve long-range forecasting towards being an exact science? and if so, over what time scale?)

Another possible route is to develop theory that actually works (always what scientists are actually doing, your suggestion is more of an engineering/technological solution). If we don't have such a theory today, we could have one in the future. Why do people believe in the theory of gravitation? Because it works. With the refinements made in special relativity (applying to situations with higher velocities) the theory has been shown to give accurate results. Why does it work? Nobody really knows that, it is based on an equation which described a theory, and that equation gave accurate results. 

There could be such equations hidden away out of our current sight or knowledge, that would help us to make better long-range forecasts. Even so, those equations might not maintain enough accuracy to keep generating good solutions very long intervals into the future. This is, of course, more or less what you're talking about too, except that the equations would be based on an assumption which is not necessarily needed in theoretical physics, that the energy for weather events of the future is already in the atmospheric system.

If the energy is not already in the system, then it has to come from some other place, in theory, those places could be the oceans, the earth's crust or core, the solar system magnetic field that surrounds the atmosphere, the Sun, or deep space. But if the super-computers you describe are only tasked with finding energy in more and more detail in the current atmosphere, then no matter how good they are, they won't give the results sought, because the energy just isn't there now, so how could they possibly predict what might happen once the energy already present has fully dissipated? (something that might take ten days, a month, some part of a year, depends on what kind of energy, but very little of it could survive much beyond a month). 

My theory and therefore my research approach is to assume that the energy comes from beyond the atmosphere. That might make it subject to theoretical prediction, although at the same time that could just be another unpredictable random process we cannot model or predict. If we had good theory now, we could make accurate long-range forecasts for quite some time, perhaps not like a century or a thousand years, but certainly months or even years. It would be a quasi-permanent theoretical solution that might require continuous refinement to ensure it was not off track. It would be like a gravitational equation that depended on periodic measurements of the value of G (in physics, that is assumed to be a constant over long intervals). 

Either way, I think you're correct to assume it will take a lot of computing power and it will come decades in the future, unless I get my act together. 

Einstein's theory of gravity also breaks down, it's not complete.  It's an approximation.  That's why we need quantum gravity.  We actually don't even know what gravity really is.  Once we do, these "singularities" (which really are errors in the math) will be resolved.

 

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11 hours ago, snowman19 said:


No one said -EPO/-WPO/-AO/-NAO/-PNA isn’t cold either, but just keep in mind that with the RNA you are going to have a SE ridge issue. Just because there’s a -NAO, doesn’t mean there won’t be a SE ridge, they can absolutely co-exist and will, especially with a healthy -PNA

Would the SE ridge offer some benefits though in that it will stop a suppressed pattern which often develops with a -NAO?

 

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Yup, mjo is going to pass the MC again. Beyond that, 2nd half of December, it's going to continue to the west pacific again. Similarly to how it already has this fall. I'm a big fan of that potential timing. But the way the 500mb NH pattern is also evolving on ensembles lately, is looking to be towards one that could legit heavily damage the PV. That MJO pass has the potential to do real damage. To me, the situation is incredibly interesting. None of that is in any reliable timeframe currently. So we continue to watch with great interest moving forward.

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Morning thoughts…

Clouds and showers will give way to partly sunny skies this afternoon. High temperatures will reach the lower and middle 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 52°

Newark: 55°

Philadelphia: 56°

The remainder of November will be generally milder than normal.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 50.7°; 15-Year: 50.9°

Newark: 30-Year: 51.4°; 15-Year: 51.8°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 52.4°; 15-Year: 52.7°

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The last six days of November are averaging    48degs.(43/54) or +5.

Month to date is   51.5[+2.6].         November should end at    50.8[+2.8]---a Top Ten tie.

Reached 54 here yesterday.

Today:    49-53, wind w. to nw.---breezy late, drizzle till 2pm, 40 by tomorrow AM.

50*(80%RH) here at 6am, drizzle.        51* at 7am.      50*/51* all morning.      53* at 2pm.      Reached 54* at 3pm.       48* at 10pm.

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1 hour ago, EasternLI said:

Yup, mjo is going to pass the MC again. Beyond that, 2nd half of December, it's going to continue to the west pacific again. Similarly to how it already has this fall. I'm a big fan of that potential timing. But the way the 500mb NH pattern is also evolving on ensembles lately, is looking to be towards one that could legit heavily damage the PV. That MJO pass has the potential to do real damage. To me, the situation is incredibly interesting. None of that is in any reliable timeframe currently. So we continue to watch with great interest moving forward.

So does that mean we're in a repetitive pattern with the first half of each month mild and the second half of each month coldish?

 

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3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

So does that mean we're in a repetitive pattern with the first half of each month mild and the second half of each month coldish?

 

Not necessarily. It's just the way eps and gefs are looking currently and with some agreement. Still a lot of question marks. It's an interesting set of circumstances to ponder though. 

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38 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

It's interesting if this is the effect of climate change, that it could actually lead to more prolonged la ninas.  The warmer water is in the far west Pacific not the part of the Pacific we associate with el ninos.

 

We are only in the infancy of understanding the effects of climate change, but I would not be surprised if it is leading to or will lead to more frequent El Ninos and La Ninas. And longer lasting ones. 

 

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47 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

So does that mean we're in a repetitive pattern with the first half of each month mild and the second half of each month coldish?

 

That goes back to what I mentioned yesterday-pattern recognition.  There are times when that happens, meaning a 10-14 day stretch of overall mild weather followed by a stretch of 10-14 days of cool/cold weather. And there can be patterns withing a pattern. For example it is stormy when it is mild but not stormy when it is cool/cold...and vice versa.

Ask chess  players about pattern recognition in chess and they will tell you that it is vitally important to being a good chess player.  Understanding patterns helps to "unlock" chess positions. The same applies in weather but far too many fallback on the models rather than being able to recognize patterns.  

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1 hour ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

That goes back to what I mentioned yesterday-pattern recognition.  There are times when that happens, meaning a 10-14 day stretch of overall mild weather followed by a stretch of 10-14 days of cool/cold weather. And there can be patterns withing a pattern. For example it is stormy when it is mild but not stormy when it is cool/cold...and vice versa.

Ask chess  players about pattern recognition in chess and they will tell you that it is vitally important to being a good chess player.  Understanding patterns helps to "unlock" chess positions. The same applies in weather but far too many fallback on the models rather than being able to recognize patterns.  

Yes I love pattern recognition too.  This is a very 80s type of pattern where you have alternating periods of mild/wet and cold/dry  I've noticed a return to that in the last few years.  Before that it was the 50s, when we had Marches that were snowier than the winter months and high tropical activity too (especially high tropical activity that made landfall.)

 

 

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8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes I love pattern recognition too.  This is a very 80s type of pattern where you have alternating periods of mild/wet and cold/dry  I've noticed a return to that in the last few years.  Before that it was the 50s, when we had Marches that were snowier than the winter months and high tropical activity too (especially high tropical activity that made landfall.)

 

 

I "love" watching TV mets when they show 2-3 model outputs but then fail to make a forecast. ....makes it into a multiple choice game for the viewers!

"Honey I'm going with the GFS"...."not me I think the NAM is going to be right"

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9 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

I "love" watching TV mets when they show 2-3 model outputs but then fail to make a forecast. ....makes it into a multiple choice game for the viewers!

"Honey I'm going with the GFS"...."not me I think the NAM is going to be right"

It's the ultimate escape route when one of them happens to be right.  You can claim success!

 

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