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Morning thoughts…

Today will be mostly cloudy with some periods of rain and continued cool. High temperatures will reach the upper 50s and lower 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 59°

Newark: 60°

Philadelphia: 63°

Tomorrow will turn warmer.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 68.6°; 15-Year: 69.9°

Newark: 30-Year: 70.2°; 15-Year: 71.7°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 71.4°; 15-Year: 72.6°

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Impressive for Newark to get two record low maxes in a row. This is the first two consecutive records since the Memorial Day weekend in 2021. So the typical warm October La Niña pattern is getting overpowered by the North Pacific warm pool and more Nino-like +PNA.

Newark Area, NJ
Period of record: 1931-01-01 through 2022-10-04DateLowest maximum temperatures (degrees F)Top Record 2nd Record 3rd Record

 

10/3 52 in 2022 52 in 1974 53 in 1939
10/4 51 in 2022 52 in 1965 55 in 1996+


 

5/29 52 in 2021 60 in 1950 60 in 1940
5/30 53 in 2021 53 in 1953 59 in 2017
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The next 8 days are averaging  61degs.(54/68) or about -1.

Reached 56 here yesterday.

Today:  58-62, wind ne., cloudy, Rain at anytime, 56 tomorrow AM.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/overlay=mean_sea_level_pressure/orthographic=-74.44,39.06,3000/loc=-73.908,37.846 (time dependent)

56*(99%RH) here at 7am.       58* at 9am.      59* at 11am.      60* at Noon.       Reached 62* at 1pm.        58* at 6pm.

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1 hour ago, nyrangers1022 said:

Will it tho?   Sometimes these spinning wheels of crap like to keep the low level clouds around longer

It's as good as gone and it'll be gone for  a nice long time.

By the way, look towards the south, I can see large gaps in the clouds already with blue patches of sky visible in that direction.

 

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Impressive for Newark to get two record low maxes in a row. This is the first two consecutive records since the Memorial Day weekend in 2021. So the typical warm October La Niña pattern is getting overpowered by the North Pacific warm pool and more Nino-like +PNA.

Newark Area, NJ
Period of record: 1931-01-01 through 2022-10-04DateLowest maximum temperatures (degrees F)Top Record 2nd Record 3rd Record

 

10/3 52 in 2022 52 in 1974 53 in 1939
10/4 51 in 2022 52 in 1965 55 in 1996+


 

5/29 52 in 2021 60 in 1950 60 in 1940
5/30 53 in 2021 53 in 1953 59 in 2017

This is why ENSO centric forecasts are going to have major issues (they've had issues for a few years now.)

 

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5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

This is why ENSO centric forecasts are going to have major issues (they've had issues for a few years now.)

 

The best we can do is identify which competing warm pools may pushback against the canonical ENSO expectations in the new era of ongoing marine heatwaves. In the old days, it was usually just ENSO and whether the NAO would be positive or negative. Now, a new layer of record SST warmth has added to the complexity with record SSTs in both the tropics and subtropics. So this is why seasonal model forecasts can be low skill when models don’t know which warm pool or pools will dominate. 

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1 minute ago, bluewave said:

The best we can do is identify which competing warm pools may pushback against the canonical ENSO expectations in the new era of ongoing marine heatwaves. In the old days, it was usually just ENSO and whether the NAO would be positive or negative. Now, a new layer of record SST warmth has added to the complexity with record SSTs in both the tropics and subtropics. So this is why seasonal model forecasts can be low skill when models don’t know which warm pool or pools will dominate. 

Do you think that the LR weather modeling will be able to add this new layer of complexity programmed into it so that we can improve these forecasts, Chris?

 

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Event total 2.78" over last 5 days.  Entire forum received much needed rain.  Coastal NJ did best with widespread 3-6" of rainfall.  Some local amounts there 5-8" with even some local 10"+ amounts.  Drought Monitor maps should be pretty much completely erased if not by tomorrow then by next Thursday issuance.

1.jpg

2.jpg

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12 hours ago, Will - Rutgers said:

got drenched on the 4 mile jebwalk tonight, no radar is safe longer than 20 minutes with these quasi-feeder bands

also the radar returns are low because i guess the drop sizes are small so even moderate green is a soaker

i may have trenchfoot

Good morning Will. Take care of the feet, better that than hoof and mouth disease …. which generally does not become active until the cold season. As always …. 

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1 hour ago, Snowlover11 said:

my gf woke up from the thunder and lightning, i was sound asleep.

We too had an overnight thunderstorm.  From around 1:40 - 2:10 am we had about a dozen flashes and accompanying loud rumbles.  Enough to rattle the dishes a couple times.  A full on thunderstorm, as impressive as any in summertime, complete with a deluge of rain, with a temperature at 47 degrees.  

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