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Hurricane Ian


Scott747
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1 minute ago, MANDA said:

I'm not questioning them but I'm a little surprised.  Based on radar Sanibel and Captiva look to be only in the western eye wall.  Always thought center had to cross land to be considered landfall.  Additional landfall to come on the mainland.

Nowhere in that link is landfall mentioned, just that the eyewall is starting to come onshore.

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3 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Ian looks at his best. Beautiful CDO. Symmetrical, uniform cold cloud tops. Firing on all cylinders. First full Appearance of a cat 5 from a satellite standpoint imo.
 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=09L&product=ir

Amazing satellite presentation.  Maintaining intensity right up to the coast with no degradation whatsoever - none.  We are watching something rare unfold.

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1 minute ago, NavarreDon said:


Reminiscent of Michael, TBX shows the core in the best shape I’ve seen all morning.


.

Yep, presentation looks like it should be cover of a textbook. That EWRC yesterday was at the worst possible time clearly. Eye probably has the stadium effect. Captiva may be about to get into the eye. 

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1 minute ago, Michigander said:

Wrong 

image.thumb.png.f1fac707e4a9e8ad5f93990c984ca8a2.png

Directly from the AMS glossary:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml

Landfall:
The intersection of the surface center of a tropical cyclone with a coastline. Because the strongest winds in a tropical cyclone are not located precisely at the center, it is possible for a cyclone's strongest winds to be experienced over land even if landfall does not occur. Similarly, it is possible for a tropical cyclone to make landfall and have its strongest winds remain over the water. Compare direct hit, indirect hit, and strike.
 
 
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3 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Based on radar, if trends continue, a landfall on Boca Grande seems likely. 8 miles or so south of the official track

Going to be real close to that area.  Water is going to rapidly pile into Gasparilla Sound / Charlotte Harbor on that track.  Those homes on Boca Grande are well built - we're about to find out how well built.

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28 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

This webcam is still live on Sanibel.  I am surprised that the visibility is so good and few trees down.  They have to be in the eyewall.  https://www.mysanibel.com/live-street-cams?utm_campaign=SanCapChamber&utm_medium=referral&utm_source=SanCapChamber

The webcam called periwinkle and casa ybel W. shows the surge coming in on Sanibel When I checked this webcam a few minutes ago the water was just reaching this area. Now look at it.

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1 minute ago, KPITSnow said:

It looks like Sarasota/Bradenton is going to get blasted by the western eye wall 

We'll probably see some land confirmations soon for the stronger northern eye wall. Headed for Venice and Sarasota as you said. Thankfully for them the surge won't be too bad. Charlotte Harbor and Cape Coral though.... :yikes: 

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3 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Posting the link again. 

https://www.mysanibel.com/live-street-cams?utm_campaign=SanCapChamber&utm_medium=referral&utm_source=SanCapChamber#

The surge has risen several feet in the past few minutes at Periwinkle & Casa Ybel West

Yep, I'm watching the windows on that yellow house to see how high it gets.  Hope we don't lose the camera.

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12Z UKMET: 2nd landfall much further north at Myrtle Beach instead of Charleston and near a cat 2 hurricane:

HURRICANE IAN        ANALYSED POSITION : 26.0N  82.7W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092022

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 28.09.2022    0  26.0N  82.7W      949            92
    0000UTC 29.09.2022   12  27.4N  81.4W      978            47
    1200UTC 29.09.2022   24  28.5N  80.6W      987            51
    0000UTC 30.09.2022   36  29.7N  79.5W      983            59
    1200UTC 30.09.2022   48  31.5N  79.0W      976            62
    0000UTC 01.10.2022   60  34.6N  79.0W      985            40
    1200UTC 01.10.2022   72  36.3N  79.5W     1002            28
    0000UTC 02.10.2022   84  37.5N  79.0W     1007            27
    1200UTC 02.10.2022   96              CEASED TRACKING
 

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Ian already showing the difference between he and Charley.  Its one thing dealing with 150 mph winds.....a whole other thing dealing with that and tsunami like storm surges.  the reverse surge out of Tampa Bay is wild.  Historic storm, no other way to describe it.

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