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Hurricane Ian


Scott747
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5 minutes ago, nwohweather said:


Definitely watching in Charleston. Wouldn’t be shocked to see even at Cat 1 run up in here

Agreed, that's where I am. I'm starting on drainage work at home today, but it's something that needed to happen anyway.

 

It's been interesting watching this one run east but there's a lot of time left. Tomorrow will be when a lot of locals really start paying attention.

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Agreed, that's where I am. I'm starting on drainage work at home today, but it's something that needed to happen anyway.
 
It's been interesting watching this one run east but there's a lot of time left. Tomorrow will be when a lot of locals really start paying attention.

Well what worries me is a continued east track and the Gulf Stream. Absolute jet fuel for a weakening system as it goes back out over the water
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27 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Looks to be tightening up for landfall near or just north of Charlotte Harbor.

So is the front going to pass it by and then Ian slips behind it and much more of a west track inland?

There would be no way it would move like  that if the front was pressing eastward with Ian to east of front?

 

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The first forecasts for storm surge, beginning on Friday for coastal GA and SC have the water level at #4 all time at Fort Pulaski, GA (close to the water level from the October 1947 hurricane) and #10 all time at Charleston, SC (close to the water level from Hurricane David in 1979).

The river/water forecasts don’t extend into Saturday yet; I would guess Friday overnight’s high tides would be even higher as Ian gets to Georgia. And all this is without a forecast track yet of Ian making it offshore and headed back toward the GA/SC coast. 

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11 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Looks like EWRC may be beginning or underway. This may limit amount of intensification Ian could have achieved depending on how long it takes. It still could hit cat 4. 

Looks like the SE eyewall is degrading on radar. Definitely looks like an EWRC is underway. 

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4:00 PM public advisory update 

451 
WTNT64 KNHC 271958
TCUAT4

Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092022
400 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022

...4 PM EDT HURRICANE IAN POSITION UPDATE...

In the past hour, the Cuba Institute of Meteorology located in 
Havana reported a sustained wind of 56 mph (90 km/h) with a gust to 
87 mph (140 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 400 PM EDT...2000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.8N 83.2W
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM S OF SARASOTA FLORIDA
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.11 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Papin


 

 
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This may be due to the recent hot towers popping in the eyewall, but the eye has clearly been contracting for the past several hours. Unless the inner eyewall dramatically weakens I think recon will find mid-cat 4 FL winds somewhere in the eyewall

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3 minutes ago, tiger_deF said:

This may be due to the recent hot towers popping in the eyewall, but the eye has clearly been contracting for the past several hours. Unless the inner eyewall dramatically weakens I think recon will find mid-cat 4 FL winds somewhere in the eyewall

I'm not so sure. A lot of the pressure drop has went into expanding wind field instead of strengthening wind field. But I do think we will see an increase in winds on next advisory. Maybe 125-130mph. 

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The moat feature has almost completely filled in and nice convective band is rotating around from the SW side.  Eye is very circular and has been contracting.  Tremendous hot tower erupting on NW side.  Based on satellite and radar looks to me like Ian is still in intensification mode.  We'll see what recon finds.  Certainly has not weakened or lost any organization this afternoon.  Would expect TPC to either keep track steady or most likely nudge it a slight distance SE for a landfall point.  Not by much maybe 10-15 miles based on 12Z models /ensembles and 18Z tropical models.

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