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Rainfall for Sep 22 is attached: My review of XMACIS climate data indicates Poughkeepsie top 30 for the month in the period of record (POR) dating back to 1931 and Bridgeport top 20 since 1948. 

More expected this Sunday-Sunday night...maybe 0.1-0.8?  (HRRR has sprinkles here already Sunday morning)

Then Ian uncertainty Sept 30-Oct 2 (my mistake 2 days ago thinking Hermine, but Ian took 12-15 hours longer to be named than I expected). In any case it's debatable how much rain will fall here for the event and of course the beginning of it on Friday the 30th.

There is still an option for an east out to sea (OTS) south of us, but the GEPS is the only remaining global ensemble that misses to the south, as of 00z/24.

To me that means tropical moisture is coming. How it all plays out in the eastern USA has  many solutions.  I only present a super ensemble outlook, (attached)  for the end of the month as constructed by Tomer Burg.   

I continue to think we have a chance of 1"+ rain for at least a portion of the NYC forum here on the 30th, but it has to be rated chance as timing and splitting of rain drivers can diminish or delay my own envisioned outcome. 

Screen Shot 2022-09-23 at 7.39.11 PM.png

Screen Shot 2022-09-24 at 5.58.52 AM.png

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Morning thoughts…

This morning, the temperature fell into the 40s in New York City for the first such September reading since September 22, 2020. Today will be mostly sunny and milder. High temperatures will reach the upper 60s and lower 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 70°

Newark: 72°

Philadelphia: 73°

Tomorrow will be warmer.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 73.1°; 15-Year: 74.3°

Newark: 30-Year: 74.7°; 15-Year: 76.0°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 75.9°; 15-Year: 77.0°

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The first 45° of the season came in a bit earlier than the recent average since 2010 at Islip. 
 

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kisp

45

First/Last Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Last
Value
First
Value
Difference
Minimum 05-03 (2015) 09-18 (2013) 111
Mean 05-15 10-04 141
Maximum 06-01 (2020) 10-18 (2021) 159
2022 05-09 (2022) 44 09-24(2022) 45 -
2021 05-28 (2021) 44 10-18 (2021) 45 142
2020 06-01 (2020) 44 09-21 (2020) 44 111
2019 05-15 (2019) 45 10-05 (2019) 42 142
2018 05-09 (2018) 44 10-13 (2018) 42 156
2017 05-21 (2017) 43 10-17 (2017) 40 148
2016 05-20 (2016) 45 10-11 (2016) 39 143
2015 05-03 (2015) 44 10-10 (2015) 44 159
2014 05-03 (2014) 44 09-23 (2014) 45 142
2013 05-27 (2013) 43 09-18 (2013) 44 113
2012 05-12 (2012) 43 09-25 (2012) 44 135
2011 05-06 (2011) 38 10-06 (2011) 40 152
2010 05-13 (2010) 38 10-09 (2010) 44 148
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The OP Euro is finally coming into line with the EPS, GEM, and GFS on the slower track  of Ian. The impressive Fiona wave break is setting up a strong blocking pattern to the north. So we’ll have to see how much moisture can make into our region after the system weakens. 

New run

 

451B4CCB-24C8-4A9E-B91C-46244F5ECB9E.thumb.png.e7646877f942d186dd6f657acf1a1e23.png
 

Old run

 

2981E40E-CA53-460E-BF0B-20EC9B1E10CF.png
 

A29FE8A3-0C9A-4AD8-B4B9-70D00DBFE689.thumb.png.4f9d57ffcca041410539efaac8e5ee14.png

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The last 7 days of September are averaging  63degs.(56/71) or -3.

Month to date is  71.9[+1.4].     September should end at  69.8[+0.6]. 

Reached 63 here yesterday.

Today:   67-72, scattered clouds, wind w., 65 tomorrow AM.

50*(64%RH) here at 7am.       51* at 9am.           67* by 3pm.       Reached 72* around 4:30pm.        66* at 8pm.

 

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The OP Euro is finally coming into line with the EPS, GEM, and GFS on the slower track  of Ian. The impressive Fiona wave break is setting up a strong blocking pattern to the north. So we’ll have to see how much moisture can make into our region after the system weakens. 

New run

 

451B4CCB-24C8-4A9E-B91C-46244F5ECB9E.thumb.png.e7646877f942d186dd6f657acf1a1e23.png
 

Old run

 

2981E40E-CA53-460E-BF0B-20EC9B1E10CF.png
 

A29FE8A3-0C9A-4AD8-B4B9-70D00DBFE689.thumb.png.4f9d57ffcca041410539efaac8e5ee14.png

Hopefully its wrong 

We need the rain

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This morning, New York City saw the temperature dip into the 40s in September for the first time since September 22, 2020 when the thermometer registered 48°.

Early this morning, Hurricane Fiona made landfall in Nova Scotia as a Category 1 hurricane. The storm set a Canadian national low pressure record with a reading of 931.6 mb (27.51") on Hart Island. Next week, Cuba and Florida could face a potential major hurricane threat.

Tomorrow and Monday will see readings return to near to somewhat above normal levels.

In part due to Merbok's impact on the jet stream, September will likely end with cooler than normal conditions. The cool weather could continue into the start of October.

In the 6 past cases when the June AO averaged +0.750 or above (1950-2021), 67% of the following August and September cases featured above normal temperatures. The August ECMWF forecast shows a warmer than normal September in the Northeast. This warmth would be consistent with the ongoing warming that has been occurring in September.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around September 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.62°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.00°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall.

The SOI was +17.06 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.217 today.

On September 22 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.482 (RMM). The September 21-adjusted amplitude was 0.478 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 75% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 69.9° (0.7° above normal).

 

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6 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Some scenes from Robert Moses State Park this morning with waves rolling in from Hurricane Fiona, which made landfall in Nova Scotia very early this morning.

image.jpeg.33cc1ee96b63b4d152f2d800693d15ad.jpeg

image.jpeg.c29d09d1f3fd9f951bfda58c0e1b194f.jpeg

image.jpeg.eea11c9629b4da1b1207457b092d7335.jpeg

image.jpeg.cad6222eb001ad3647b7ffaffce1275b.jpeg

image.jpeg.7d6edf1e8ba5a78ce21fd29059ed9222.jpeg

nice pics don

i was in Long Branch, NJ today and basically all the surf forecasts were complete busts.  the sea about as placid as a lake, there were no currents (rip or otherwise) until the afternoon.  there were enough swells to make boarding worthwhile but nothing like i expected.

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37 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said:

nice pics don

i was in Long Branch, NJ today and basically all the surf forecasts were complete busts.  the sea about as placid as a lake, there were no currents (rip or otherwise) until the afternoon.  there were enough swells to make boarding worthwhile but nothing like i expected.

The surf was lower than had been forecast at Robert Moses, too. The waves had been forecast to be around 10’ but were generally 4’-5’.

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2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The surf was lower than had been forecast at Robert Moses, too. The waves had been forecast to be around 10’ but were generally 4’-5’.

I was at Jones Beach for the high tide last night about 6:30. The waves were big but they were rolling type waves and it would be 3 or 4 large waves and then much more calm for a bit then larger swells again. Also some over wash. Today sounds somewhat calmer.

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22 hours ago, wdrag said:

Rainfall for Sep 22 is attached: My review of XMACIS climate data indicates Poughkeepsie top 30 for the month in the period of record (POR) dating back to 1931 and Bridgeport top 20 since 1948. 

More expected this Sunday-Sunday night...maybe 0.1-0.8?  (HRRR has sprinkles here already Sunday morning)

Then Ian uncertainty Sept 30-Oct 2 (my mistake 2 days ago thinking Hermine, but Ian took 12-15 hours longer to be named than I expected). In any case it's debatable how much rain will fall here for the event and of course the beginning of it on Friday the 30th.

There is still an option for an east out to sea (OTS) south of us, but the GEPS is the only remaining global ensemble that misses to the south, as of 00z/24.

To me that means tropical moisture is coming. How it all plays out in the eastern USA has  many solutions.  I only present a super ensemble outlook, (attached)  for the end of the month as constructed by Tomer Burg.   

I continue to think we have a chance of 1"+ rain for at least a portion of the NYC forum here on the 30th, but it has to be rated chance as timing and splitting of rain drivers can diminish or delay my own envisioned outcome. 

Screen Shot 2022-09-23 at 7.39.11 PM.png

Screen Shot 2022-09-24 at 5.58.52 AM.png

That 0.13 seems to be low for this area, it's surrounded by 0.4-0.5 amounts which seem more in line with what we had.

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