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August Discussion/Obs


weatherwiz
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2 hours ago, jbenedet said:

Don’t like this at all. It’s good for the pool, and parking your beach chair right where the water meets the sand. Other than that, it might as well be raining. 
 

We’re losing more nice weather days during summer bc of this.

Exactly, people are just staying inside for the most part.  

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3 hours ago, jbenedet said:

Monday looks like the worst heat yet. I’m seeing widespread dews 73-75, while 850’s are cooked. Looks like a heat index 105+ kinda day. Joy.

Late to the party this morning ... but cursory evaluation suggest the BD has trended up the coast - ~ PWM by 21z Monday.  I'm sure everyone knows this ..blah blah.

However, convection is a wild-card.  With all this ginormous CAPE things get a bit touchy, and that may not be handled well.  That would be very short-term/now-cast correction if need be, but if the boundary has modest momentum toward PSM by 21 Z Monday, then... a cluster of boomers runs out along it, it will push that boundary farther SW of guidance. 

That said, ... not likely to happen - no.  I see that as best and only hope for salvation.

Otherwise, the NAM doesn't like a BD anymore, and being between 36 and 60 hours ... is not a good sign for BD.  Only mentioning it because the 3km to 32 km versions were pretty horny on that idea in yesterday's runs, as was being highlighted.  Yes the models a p.o.s. for synoptic... but it's also got the finite BL resolution...etc.

Anyway, it's actually surging the hydrostatic heights over Logan to 580!!  I'm not sure I've ever seen 580 get breached after the first week of Aug ...  T1 is 30 C, but I've noticed with the FOUS grid, that particular metric is just about invariably and always initializing 1 or even 2 C above the previous runs.  So... if say 32C at T1, given no interference from clouds or wind direction, should produce a 36 to 37C 2-meter... 

I don't want any part of that with DPs above 60 let alone 73. 

 

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56 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Exactly, people are just staying inside for the most part.  

mm...  I dunno about this subjective stuff - mainly because by nature of it, one does not ever 'really' influence folks with their pearls of wisdom and arresting powers of speech ..  lol Shakespeare would surely fail, amid this vitriolic hoi polloi, so ...heh, the attempt may not work too well.

That said, still, the number of days in June that were of that chamber ilk, I'm pretty sure exceeds the total any summer typically allots.

Check this, but it 'seems' like 20 out of 30 of those days were competitive for 'top 10' ranking, and considering there are only 12 weeks of summer, and ... there was still decent days in July adding to the bliss total, I'm not sure we really have room here for much complaint.  

It's certainly not timely ...  And since, getting two back to back, week long heat waves certainly becomes erosive to patience.  It just means that the distribution of the nice days vs ones that are subjectively not so nice ( for whatever personal druthers), was not as agreeable.   I don't personally think the characterization this morning survives the statistical test, frankly.

But we do this...  we could be flirting with above normal snow fall for the winter, and then miss too coastals in row, and we're comparing to 2012.  This is an emotional engagement - probably could just say that.  haha

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26 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

At least arctic ice is holding up better this year

Yeah...that sea ice engagement over there in the climate sub-forum ?  

This'll probably irk folk, oh well... I'm not sure that stuff has much use for me. 

The arctic ice is holding up better ...okay - within a realm of totally f'ed implications.  (I'm not shading you here...just using it as statement catalyst).

Yet, there's this kind of comfort seeking ( I suspect) aspect, evinced by the quickness in which posting happens where the weekly numbers expose were above x-y-z years within the group f'ed implications.  When in reality, we are also behind a lot in that same group since 2000, all which are dire.  

It seems that's a hope support group. 

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2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Who shot ya?
Separate the weak from the obsolete
Hard to creep all them torched streets
It's on man, eff all that comfy sleep
I can hear sweat trickling down your butt cheeks…

Great song. 

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9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Put your bum in a stream and hold hands with Jspin while he talks about lens exposure.

Ha, or just stay inside at the breweries and look outside through the frosted A/C window unit.

I’m going to the picnic tables right now for relief.  Gondola cabins are like toaster ovens though.

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With the MDR out in the Atlantic more active with an invest... some of the Euro ens members carry a TC along... 

Most probable outcome, considering all natural physics thought to effect these destinies ... this is going to effect the EC like this,

image.png.4567eb282e1682e01730d4907e48a787.png

....with the greatest amazement in dramatic historical implications, ever in history,

 

                                                       the week I am in Michigan

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22 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

With the MDR out in the Atlantic more active with an invest... some of the Euro ens members carry a TC along... 

Most probable outcome, considering all natural physics thought to effect these destinies ... this is going to effect the EC like this,

image.png.4567eb282e1682e01730d4907e48a787.png

....with the greatest amazement in dramatic historical implications, ever in history,

 

                                                       the week I am in Michigan

Lol 12z GFS almost had that but so weak it's barely showing a system

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