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July 2022 Disco/obs/etc


Torch Tiger
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7 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

GFS really liking those state and provincial heat records in early August, especially Minnesota.

It's been liking it for awhile and they haven't come to fruition yet. I expect some good heat up there in the LR, but I'm tossing all of those absurd numbers right now. They didn't happen in the SE, they didn't happen in the midwest, and they're probably not happening in Minny...not to that extent anyway. We'll see.

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24 minutes ago, dendrite said:

It's been liking it for awhile and they haven't come to fruition yet. I expect some good heat up there in the LR, but I'm tossing all of those absurd numbers right now. They didn't happen in the SE, they didn't happen in the midwest, and they're probably not happening in Minny...not to that extent anyway. We'll see.

or the mid-Atlantic...remember there were some runs showing like 105-110 into the Carolina's

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.17" overnight and we just had a moderate thundershower.  Still raining.  .40"

Question of the day for me is,  will the new line of convection form in my area and move south or will I be totally too far north?  Probably too far north?

After my severe storm last week I have a whole new respect of what thunderstorms can do.  If you see purple on the radar heading your way, watch out!

 

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1 minute ago, wxeyeNH said:

.17" overnight and we just had a moderate thundershower.  Still raining.  .40"

Question of the day for me is,  will the new line of convection form in my area and move south or will I be totally too far north?  Probably too far north?

After my severe storm last week I have a whole new respect of what thunderstorms can do.  If you see purple on the radar heading your way, watch out!

 

It was sprinkling outside in my area at like 1230am.

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21 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

or the mid-Atlantic...remember there were some runs showing like 105-110 into the Carolina's

Yeah...that's what I meant by the SE. I know it's still been hot with that run of 100s at EWR, but the dews haven't been that bad and the heat hasn't been super exotic...yet. EWR doesn't have a lot of trouble hitting 100F anymore although almost a week straight of it is still impressive.

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2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Yeah...that's what I meant by the SE. I know it's still been hot with that run of 100s at EWR, but the dews haven't been that bad and the heat hasn't been super exotic...yet. EWR doesn't have a lot of trouble hitting 100F anymore although almost a week straight of it is still impressive.

Yeah regardless of any error the longevity of temperatures that high is still quite impressive. Outside of using 100 as a benchmark, it terms of impressiveness (speaking again on the duration here) there is no difference between a bunch of 98 and 99's vs. 100 or 101's. I've always wondered just how much influence a dry/wet ground has on overall temperature potential but you have to wonder if that is playing some role. During this stretch EWR is routinely overshooting MOS/NBM by as much as 3-5F. 

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24 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:
Just walked the dog on her loop.  What an oppressive morning.   Between the humidity, staleness, and deer flies this is my least favorite weather.   Yesterday was pretty enjoyable actually 


Humid and warm. Overnight low was 76. Deer flies were late this year but now we have bumper crop.

From one 30 minute walk in the woods behind the house.

IMG_0318.jpg

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To me ( ...seein' as anyone at all asked and gives a shit about mo ) EWR is sort of the equivalent lunacy of using Logan for the 'pedestrian' temperature, but going in the other direction - so to speak.  

The circumstance at Logan, for those privy to geography and local climate ... is almost entirely irrelevant to the Boston Commons ...certainly by the time we're out by the Cambridge side of the city - more over, those around the immediate metro-west, ...Waltham, Newton.. Milford ..etc... will use Logan's reading to point check their temp (as lay-persons that even though  were born and raised and home dwelling over eastern SNE ...they have no clue how/why we're even having this discussion).  They just think weather forecasting is a joke, ...not knowing that the discrepancies are because 'the humanity of operational Meteorology' acts like it is possible to uncover the Quantum Mechanical secrets that construct the very f'n cosmos that creates all of reality... but look out!  Having a real representative temperature location/ sourcing is a sought solution that God him/her self just concedes can't be done...

Contrasting, EWR sets out Totally realistically amid an Industrial arena so choked with NOX by air, footed under by enough heat retaining and re-radiating materials that pizzeria owners in that region could cook their fairs by way of heat-exchangers if they had the tech in place, ... using that location is tantamount to sticking a thermometer up the asshole of society's body to test the convention center prior to the function.

They may figure out that ...some work in the vicinity of that station site bumped the device so that it points directly at one of those anuses, the jet wash out of the run-way B out EWR ...I don't know, and fix it.. but what's that going to do, It's going to lower the temp to just bullshit.

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1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Yeah...that's what I meant by the SE. I know it's still been hot with that run of 100s at EWR, but the dews haven't been that bad and the heat hasn't been super exotic...yet. EWR doesn't have a lot of trouble hitting 100F anymore although almost a week straight of it is still impressive.

60+ dews throughout. And ~65 as a mean throughout the 6 day stretch. This wasn’t a dry heat. Period. Not my opinion either—the dews were *additive* to the Heat Index. So this idea of a dry heat is a non-starter. 55 or less sure. Otherwise it’s a tenuous point, objectively and subjectively.

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Seeing as we can and have in many instances in that past, registered 93/65+ combinations of ambient temperature,  ... mid 90s/65 smacks like a "both conditions/arguments are true" sort of wash.

Just calculate the HI for either circumstance...   then delta the results.  If it is within a degree in either direction, both are true and the whole discussion is mute when taking a subjectively fair approach based upon objective understanding of limitations, and local studies variance/outliers. 

But ...I guess that wouldn't satisfy the need for petty vitriol so - yeah...we'd suffer some loss there

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Growing up in Baltimore the official temperatures were taken at a weather station on the roof of the downtown custom house.  Then in the 1970's they switched to Friendship airport which is now BWI.  These type of changes are a big deal as far as climatological records.  I would bet if you looked at all the ASOS in the US and went back to the begining and then zoomed in on Google Maps you would see changes within the 1/4 mile area.  That is why observatory's like Blue Hill or Mt Washington are so important as to long term trends.

Meanwhile up here it is 68/65 and still getting training rain from earlier convection.  Up to .64"  Adding that to the 1" from Thursday storms this is the first good soaking since the first days of June.  

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