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July 2022 Disco/obs/etc


Torch Tiger
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58 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Just walked the dog on her loop.  What an oppressive morning.   Between the humidity, staleness, and deer flies this is my least favorite weather.   Yesterday was pretty enjoyable actually 

I got attached by a bunch of them at my sister in laws out in the country, they're much worse out in the country.

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All I know - personally - is that I just spent two days having to be all over eastern interior Mass for lingering DITF stuff of my own/ceremonial shit, and both days were above 95 ..in fact, closer to 100, and it was an evolutionary hot experience... As in, physiological survival mode triggered balls down by the knees protecting sperm count miserable out there.

There was a ceremonial thing at Wingaersheek Beach with 99 F land breeze pushing surface waters to England so that the 'soothing' up welled Labradorian glacial piss made the water ankle aching cold.  You basically are f'ed for anything fun in that setting...

But it wasn't really that bad ...no, because the DP was 64 -    really ?

 

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11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Seeing as we can and have in many instances in that past, register 93/65+ combinations of ambient temperature,  ... mid 90s/65 is smacks like a "both conditions/arguments are true" sort of wash.

Just calculate the HI for either circumstance...   then delta the results.  If it is within a degree in either direction, both are true and the whole discussion is mute when taking standard and subjectively fair approach based upon objective understanding of limitations, and local studies variance/outliers. 

But ...I guess that wouldn't satisfy the need for petty vitriol so - yeah...we'd suffer some loss there

The nights have been humid with dews creeping up around 70F, but the afternoons have been mixing out to 35-45% RH on the tarmacs. Pretty hard to get 95/72 here without mixing out to some degree. I generally feel like humidity is overplayed on high heat afternoons when dews mix out, but we make up for it at night. 

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17 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

The nights have been humid with dews creeping up around 70F, but the afternoons have been mixing out to 35-45% RH on the tarmacs. Pretty hard to get 95/72 here without mixing out to some degree. I generally feel like humidity is overplayed on high heat afternoons when dews mix out, but we make up for it at night. 

This is a solid observation ... It's been triggering me to ask if that amount of D(DP) across the diurnals, has been anomalous?

I'm not sure if that's a metric that's really kept track of.   We all know, Mets to enthusiasts, that we're shedding DP numbers usually nearing the highest mixing point/BL expansion.   Normally per my farmer-John's-Meteorological anecdotal experience, that's in the neighborhood of 5-7 F...  It's like you come out of the gates on a hot one souring to 86/74 and that's kind of your highest HI of the day around bout 10:34 am ( heh..).. Then, at 1:48, it's 94/68...kind of stationary HI more or less.  96/66 is the ping max.   

But lately I've also been seeing 82/74 at 8am go to 97/57s -

I'm not sure if that entirely normal - like we're exceeding the typical delta(DP). 

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1 hour ago, metagraphica said:


Humid and warm. Overnight low was 76. Deer flies were late this year but now we have bumper crop.

From one 30 minute walk in the woods behind the house.

IMG_0318.jpg

I despite deerflies above all other flying things, but I'd never do that to a hat.  For one thing, dead deerflies seem to attract even more of their compatriots.  Can agree about the late arrival of those miniature flying T-rexes - drove thru the mile of unmaintained road to our place Saturday afternoon and arrived with a squadron of 10-15 deerflies pacing the pickup at 15 mph.
Only light RA so far today, may need afternoon convection to reach the forecast 1/4-1/2".

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15 minutes ago, tamarack said:

I despite deerflies above all other flying things, but I'd never do that to a hat.  For one thing, dead deerflies seem to attract even more of their compatriots.  Can agree about the late arrival of those miniature flying T-rexes - drove thru the mile of unmaintained road to our place Saturday afternoon and arrived with a squadron of 10-15 deerflies pacing the pickup at 15 mph.
Only light RA so far today, may need afternoon convection to reach the forecast 1/4-1/2".

Packing tape on the hat first.  Then carefully spread the Tanglefoot only on the packing tape.  After the walk, carefully grab an edge of the packing tape and peel the whole thing off and into the garbage.  Repeat for the next day.

edit - and wear the hat backwards, Deerfly strategy is to fly around and assess it's target first, then attack from behind.

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

All I know - personally - is that I just spent two days having to be all over eastern interior Mass for lingering DITF stuff of my own/ceremonial shit, and both days were above 95 ..in fact, closer to 100, and it was an evolutionary hot experience... As in, physiological survival mode triggered balls down by the knees protecting sperm count miserable out there.

There was a ceremonial thing at Wingaersheek Beach with 99 F land breeze pushing surface waters to England so that the 'soothing' up welled Labradorian glacial piss made the water ankle aching cold.  You basically are f'ed for anything fun in that setting...

But it wasn't really that bad ...no, because the DP was 64 -    really ?

 

I was outside at a brewery and in my pool and on our screen porch for much of yesterday afternoon. Dews at ORH bounced between 60 and 62 yesterday.  It was hot dry air for sure.  Blast furnace.   But I tolerate that much better than 80/73 which it is currently at.  We each have our druthers 

Edit.  It also barely touched 90 here which is quite different than 98

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You know... there really is massive heat signal emerging out of the blurry range of the summer teleconnector spread, for early August.

The PNA's correlative significance is considerably less useful in summer compared to winter climatology.   That is probably even more so true during CC, suppositionally based upon recent decadal experience, alone - but there's also turn of phrase around the papering realms.   However, there are some circumstances where/whence the prognostic numbers may bear more signficance... and it comes from combining disparate sources whereby quasi  -suggestion via constructively interference. 

The PNA is ominously signalling a huge phase change, which alone ...may not be as useful, but the NAO is also indicating a very large change  - it's basically teleconnector convergence that points toward central to eastern N/A positive geopotentia anomalies.  

I find it interesting that we've been bleeding signficant 850 mb thermal anomalies up to ORD-BOS latitudes, when erstwhile this summer season...these above indicator were never very much in favor of doing so.  So what happens when/"IF" this spread validates a real forcing ??

Note, looking backward along these histories below, the last time the PNA fell for 10 days while the NAO was rising(risen), was during the ridge eruption over the OV back in May.  The only issue then is that there was sans a western heat/mass release into the circulation. ...so moving parts notwithstanding.

image.png.48b4af1cafd70d57e48443f3f368011d.png

Other more intangible aspects lend to the idea but tl;dr factor is growing here.

 

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2 hours ago, jbenedet said:

60+ dews throughout. And ~65 as a mean throughout the 6 day stretch. This wasn’t a dry heat. Period. Not my opinion either—the dews were *additive* to the Heat Index. So this idea of a dry heat is a non-starter. 55 or less sure. Otherwise it’s a tenuous point, objectively and subjectively.

Beer? It's July. There's abundant evapotranspiration. We're not pulling 95/45. 95/60 is hot, but nbd compared to some other heat events we've had the last decade where we're 97/75 in the afternoon. Sat and Sun mornings I radiated down into the low to mid 60s. Then you get a little dew bump mid morning as all of that dew evaporates and then the dry air mixes back down once again. DAW was 97(*)/60 at noon yesterday. BOS was 100/57. That's how we always used to run big heat here until the last decade when mid 90s over mid 70s became more common.

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1 hour ago, metagraphica said:

Packing tape on the hat first.  Then carefully spread the Tanglefoot only on the packing tape.  After the walk, carefully grab an edge of the packing tape and peel the whole thing off and into the garbage.  Repeat for the next day.

edit - and wear the hat backwards, Deerfly strategy is to fly around and assess it's target first, then attack from behind.

I've gone to a solo cup style, which has worked well.  Just throw out the cups after they get too clogged up.  I bagged 32 in one walk through the yard last week.  I use the clear tangle trap glue, made by tanglefoot. That way, they can see the blue cup, as blue really brings out the worst in them.

 

 

hat.jpg

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1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I was outside at a brewery and in my pool and on our screen porch for much of yesterday afternoon. Dews at ORH bounced between 60 and 62 yesterday.  It was hot dry air for sure.  Blast furnace.   But I tolerate that much better than 80/73 which it is currently at.  We each have our druthers 

Edit.  It also barely touched 90 here which is quite different than 98

I agree with Brian that in the stricter fairness, 63 DP is taking the "edge" off what could be extraordinary ...

But, my personal experience in dealing with yesterday and the day before was that it wasn't much of a reach-around relief, either.  I'm certainly glad the DP mixed out/down to the low 60s both days - but both conditions can be true.  It can be both not as bad as it could have been, but also , ...really f'ing bad man! 

Having said all that... I'm just curious if there's some bit of "desiccation feedback" ... I've read before that antecedent arid soil conditioning can absorb DP right out of the air... We may be refitting DPs/theta-e in shallow decoupled layers because the rates go negative briefly overnight, but when the sun hammers the landscape and heats the surfaces ... (maybe - I'm just suggesting/wondering here), together with expansion thermodynamics it's eating out the water in both directions. 

I feel pretty confident that 74 DP going to 58 to 63 is a little on the unusual side. 

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12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I feel pretty confident that 74 DP going to 58 to 63 is a little on the unusual side. 

That's probably an extreme example, but I believe some progs had it modeled. Here's the 00z 3k NAM from the night before.

00Z-20220724_NAMNSTNE_sfc_dewp-0-36-10-100.gif

Low 70s dews in SNE during the morning and then mixing out into the 60s and pockets of <= 60F in E MA from BYV to BOS where the hottest temps were achieved. We often get that early to mid morning dewpoint bump as the dew evaporates off into the low levels and then come afternoon the deeper mixing allows the drier air back down to the surface. In the evening the surface cools and reaches saturation rapidly so you get the dew formation (countryside) before 2m fully drops to the overnight mins. (I know you know this...just throwing it out to the non-mets)

Here's the number of days per year at CON with 70F+ dewpoints at each hour. There's a clear late morning bump, mid afternoon "min", and then the late evening spike around sunset. Then it continues to radiate, reach saturation, and the T/Td make that slow drop together until sunrise.

network NH_ASOS zstation CON var dwpf dir aoa thres 70 month all year 2022 _r t dpi 100.png

Obviously places like BOS or ORH don't radiate well so they tend to stay mixed 24hrs.

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9 minutes ago, dendrite said:

That's probably an extreme example, but I believe some progs had it modeled. Here's the 00z 3k NAM from the night before.

00Z-20220724_NAMNSTNE_sfc_dewp-0-36-10-100.gif

Low 70s dews in SNE during the morning and then mixing out into the 60s and pockets of <= 60F in E MA from BYV to BOS where the hottest temps were achieved. We often get that early to mid morning dewpoint bump as the dew evaporates off into the low levels and then come afternoon the deeper mixing allows the drier air back down to the surface. In the evening the surface cools and reaches saturation rapidly so you get the dew formation (countryside) before 2m fully drops to the overnight mins. (I know you know this...just throwing it out to the non-mets)

Here's the number of days per year at CON with 70F+ dewpoints at each hour. There's a clear late morning bump, mid afternoon "min", and then the late evening spike around sunset. Then it continues to radiate, reach saturation, and the T/Td make that slow drop together until sunrise.

network NH_ASOS zstation CON var dwpf dir aoa thres 70 month all year 2022 _r t dpi 100.png

Obviously places like BOS or ORH don't radiate well so they tend to stay mixed 24hrs.

Yeah..I'm sure it was modeled - no problem there.   Good job models ..I guess.

It's still unusual -

I can see in that product how that was drying issue sort of east of the Berks and Whites.  hmm. I just wonder if we have local antecedent conditioning lending to some of that.   Thing is, dps always go down during diurnal heating/mixing but the amount is what interests me. 

heh...whichever   98/62 was never in contention in my mind.  

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4 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

You’ll make up for it with a really wet period come fall with sump pumps running around the clock. The haves and have nots of today’s climate.

Maybe, trying times here now though.

https://turnto10.com/amp/news/local/attleboro-massachusetts-water-reserves-low-levels-hoppin-hill-resevoir-reserve-superintendent-department-car-washing-pools-summer-summertime-season-heat-humidity

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5 hours ago, dendrite said:

BOS dews by air temp for met summer. The U50s/L60s dews are at the bottom percentile range for 95-100 temps. Looks like 68ish is around average.

network MA_ASOS zstation BOS month summer _r t dpi 100.png

Yeah the RH values tell the story on several of the afternoons.  There were 30-40% RH around the ASOS stations. 

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With that said, I came down to CT this morning a couple towns over from the Electric Blue, and god damn it felt like a steam bath today.

BDL had a 74F dew at 1pm and on the golf course it felt all of that.  Just soaked in sweat.  Wasn’t “hot” but man those 70s dews are gross.

Golf game was ok, but felt like playing in Florida humidity.

5873578B-0EFB-40F8-A900-A3F87BDAEADC.jpeg.b91b51afbf48cc0175bcc126159e78d7.jpeg

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6 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

With that said, I came down to CT this morning a couple towns over from the Electric Blue, and god damn it felt like a steam bath today.

BDL had a 74F dew at 1pm and on the golf course it felt all of that.  Just soaked in sweat.  Wasn’t “hot” but man those 70s dews are gross.

Golf game was ok, but felt like playing in Florida humidity.

5873578B-0EFB-40F8-A900-A3F87BDAEADC.jpeg.b91b51afbf48cc0175bcc126159e78d7.jpeg

Looks like a gator could come out of that water hazard.

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8 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

With that said, I came down to CT this morning a couple towns over from the Electric Blue, and god damn it felt like a steam bath today.

BDL had a 74F dew at 1pm and on the golf course it felt all of that.  Just soaked in sweat.  Wasn’t “hot” but man those 70s dews are gross.

Golf game was ok, but felt like playing in Florida humidity.

5873578B-0EFB-40F8-A900-A3F87BDAEADC.jpeg.b91b51afbf48cc0175bcc126159e78d7.jpeg

Felt like Key West down here the last few days. High Risk Swass days. 

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3 hours ago, Hoth said:

Felt like Key West down here the last few days. High Risk Swass days. 

I had to chuckle to myself how empty the course was (literally only 3 groups playing) and my folks said these humid days it’s dead.  Maybe it was the chance of storms that kept folks away, but all I could think of were posts on here from some certain folks saying how much people love high humidity for summer outdoor activities.  It’s basically beach or bust though in that line of thought. Folks did not seem stoked to rush out and golf this afternoon in the swamp air :lol:.

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