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July 2022 Disco/obs/etc


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1 hour ago, dendrite said:

88/69

Some interesting failures 'cooking' today - I think..  I mean verdict is still out.

But Logan failed to maintain offshore forcing - they've been pipin' ESE all afternoon at 15 mph.   They're in the upper 80s after making 90 by 9:15 am...  That wind behavior was not really picked up ... Not sure if that's penetrating into the city limits.

We are busting below MOS at FIT and BED and ASH.  I mean it's fuggen hot out - don't get me wrong. But 93 is light.   Uh...okay, BDL just bumped 95 ... we may see these squeeze up a 2 or 3 over the next two hours.  In fact, these types of WNW dragon fart days tend to max at 5:10 or something.   I wonder if the forcing kicks in out there at Logan and they bounce at 7 to 94 -

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4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Some interesting failures 'cooking' today - I think..  I mean verdict is still out.

But Logan failed to maintain offshore forcing - they've been pipin' ESE all afternoon at 15 mph.   They're in the upper 80s after making 90 by 9:15 am...  That wind behavior was not really picked up ... Not sure if that's penetrating into the city limits.

We are busting below MOS at FIT and BED and ASH.  I mean it's fuggen hot out - don't get me wrong. But 93 is light.   Uh...okay, BDL just bumped 95 ... we may see these squeeze up a 2 or 3 over the next two hours.  In fact, these types of WNW dragon fart days tend to max at 5:10 or something.   I wonder if the forcing kicks in out there at Logan and they bounce at 7 to 94 -

NBM picked up on this yesterday...although I don't think it was as extreme with a 110-130 direction but I do recall the NBM going in the 170-180 direction. 

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1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm on four.

Yea, its more feast or famine for sure, but like I said.....I'll take that. I don't mind sacrificing some currier and ives days if it means turning the 15" big dog, seasonal capstone from a 15" deal into a 25" mutant.

I mean ... it's crazy how it seems we've been in this one deformation band defining a winter climate signal now for 5 years...

The winters that have been doing these 3 pop party style deliveries, have systemically been nearly invariant to one another in any kind of deeper comparison - they looked the same. Despite whatever polar index is doing A or ENSO is doing B or solar is doing C or the dawning of the age of Aquarius ..

The only thing that has changed?  the climate -

It gets harder and harder to outright refute CC is more primary in forcing - which is unfortunately a ginormous black box because it's like all the 'feel' and intuition and analytics that created the 20th century wisdom for how these metrics correlate --> what that may mean for seasonality is almost unknowable.    Best to just guess by trends.   

No matter what air, land, sea, or in combinations of these are signaling may as well throw hand: this winter will be a piece of shit high speed sheering asshole winter where one region gets a 70" deform apocalypse while everyone aggregates a -5 to -10" winter off WINDEX.   After having accumulated about 310" of modeled snow storms on D8

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9 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

NBM picked up on this yesterday...although I don't think it was as extreme with a 110-130 direction but I do recall the NBM going in the 170-180 direction. 

It's funny you mentioned this ...I mean I'm in sort of snarky hyperbolic mood today anyway, but yeah - I recall some MOS products had a 110 moment in there..I thought it was some BD in antiquity skewing the 'statistical  brain' of the machine numbers, but oh well

here we are.  But these numbers inland are hot but not impressive.  I saw a lot of 95s and 97s where it's been stuck at 93 under full sun.  I'll check again...

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3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s also not necessarily the lack of snowfall. That has increased. I think they meant snowpack. 
I’ll have to dig into the data to see for myself. 

About 4 years ago I was tasked to write an essay on global warming's possible effects on managing Maine's public reserved forests, the "descendants" of the original public lots designated when the northern/eastern townships were surveyed in the 19th century.  As part of that I compared 21st century temp/snow to the long-term numbers for 3 sites:  CAR to represent the North, Rangeley to represent the mountains, and Farmington to represent low elevation forests outside of the North.  These facets cover about 98% of the acreage managed by my former employer.  Four parameters were compared - total snowfall, days with 1"+ cover, minima zero or below (for freezing down winter logging roads) and maxima 32 or below (to keep them frozen).  The temp numbers were limited to December thru March, the historical season for frozen-ground timber harvesting.
(Note:  Winter 21-22 has not been added.  Snowfall for Farmington and Rangeley were well below average while at CAR snowfall was slightly AN.)

Snowfall:  Has increased 3-8% - for all 3 sites, average 6%.

1"+ cover:  Has decreased 3-5% for CAR, Farmington; increased 4.5% at Rangeley.  Avg down 1%

Maximum 32 or lower:  Down 1-4% (Rangeley least), average 3%

Minimum zero or lower:  Avg down 21%, CAR 18%, Rangeley 11%, Farmington 34%

Start of records:  CAR 1939, Rangeley 1961, Farmington 1893 but snow depth only since 1940.

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1 minute ago, tamarack said:

About 4 years ago I was tasked to write an essay on global warming's possible effects on managing Maine's public reserved forests, the "descendants" of the original public lots designated when the northern/eastern townships were surveyed in the 19th century.  As part of that I compared 21st century temp/snow to the long-term numbers for 3 sites:  CAR to represent the North, Rangeley to represent the mountains, and Farmington to represent low elevation forests outside of the North.  These facets cover about 98% of the acreage managed by my former employer.  Four parameters were compared - total snowfall, days with 1"+ cover, minima zero or below (for freezing down winter logging roads) and maxima 32 or below (to keep them frozen).  The temp numbers were limited to December thru March, the historical season for frozen-ground timber harvesting.
(Note:  Winter 21-22 has not been added.  Snowfall for Farmington and Rangeley were well below average while at CAR snowfall was slightly AN.)

Snowfall:  Has increased 3-8% - for all 3 sites, average 6%.

1"+ cover:  Has decreased 3-5% for CAR, Farmington; increased 4.5% at Rangeley.  Avg down 1%

Maximum 32 or lower:  Down 1-4% (Rangeley least), average 3%

Minimum zero or lower:  Avg down 21%, CAR 18%, Rangeley 11%, Farmington 34%

Start of records:  CAR 1939, Rangeley 1961, Farmington 1893 but snow depth only since 1940.

That makes sense given how the biggest changes have occurred with warmer night temps. Cool stats.

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12 minutes ago, tamarack said:

About 4 years ago I was tasked to write an essay on global warming's possible effects on managing Maine's public reserved forests, the "descendants" of the original public lots designated when the northern/eastern townships were surveyed in the 19th century.  As part of that I compared 21st century temp/snow to the long-term numbers for 3 sites:  CAR to represent the North, Rangeley to represent the mountains, and Farmington to represent low elevation forests outside of the North.  These facets cover about 98% of the acreage managed by my former employer.  Four parameters were compared - total snowfall, days with 1"+ cover, minima zero or below (for freezing down winter logging roads) and maxima 32 or below (to keep them frozen).  The temp numbers were limited to December thru March, the historical season for frozen-ground timber harvesting.
(Note:  Winter 21-22 has not been added.  Snowfall for Farmington and Rangeley were well below average while at CAR snowfall was slightly AN.)

Snowfall:  Has increased 3-8% - for all 3 sites, average 6%.

1"+ cover:  Has decreased 3-5% for CAR, Farmington; increased 4.5% at Rangeley.  Avg down 1%

Maximum 32 or lower:  Down 1-4% (Rangeley least), average 3%

Minimum zero or lower:  Avg down 21%, CAR 18%, Rangeley 11%, Farmington 34%

Start of records:  CAR 1939, Rangeley 1961, Farmington 1893 but snow depth only since 1940.

That is precisely how I would run global warming if given the choice....structure it so that the obnoxious pipe bursting nights are fewer and farther between, while minimizing impact otherwise.

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25 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I mean ... it's crazy how it seems we've been in this one deformation band defining a winter climate signal now for 5 years...

Looks like a SNE/MA thing.  Last time we had a good def band lasting more than one hour was Pi day 2017.

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7 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Looks like a SNE/MA thing.  Last time we had a good def band lasting more than one hour was Pi day 2017.

the purpose of saying was more with snow fall rates being ridiculously heavy ... not necessarily in length of event. Hence "CC/Pwat"

In fact, I would argue that storm motion velocity has increased ... while precipitation rates of all kind have increased. Despite the faster system translations ..the fall rates are surpassing so you end up with netting more in can -

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52 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Some interesting failures 'cooking' today - I think..  I mean verdict is still out.

But Logan failed to maintain offshore forcing - they've been pipin' ESE all afternoon at 15 mph.   They're in the upper 80s after making 90 by 9:15 am...  That wind behavior was not really picked up ... Not sure if that's penetrating into the city limits.

We are busting below MOS at FIT and BED and ASH.  I mean it's fuggen hot out - don't get me wrong. But 93 is light.   Uh...okay, BDL just bumped 95 ... we may see these squeeze up a 2 or 3 over the next two hours.  In fact, these types of WNW dragon fart days tend to max at 5:10 or something.   I wonder if the forcing kicks in out there at Logan and they bounce at 7 to 94 -

Still climbing…

DAW 96, MHT 95, ASH 95, FIT 95, LWM 95

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